ALP 0.4%
Incumbent MP
Bob Baldwin (Liberal), since 2001. Previously Member for Paterson 1996-1998.
Geography
Paterson lies on the north coast of New South Wales immediately to the north of Newcastle. The seat covers Maitland, Raymond Terrace, the Port Stephens peninsula and Kurri Kurri.
Redistribution
Paterson shifted south, covering more of Maitland and losing coastal areas. Paterson lost Forster-Tuncurry, Bulahdelah and Dungog to Lyne, with the border moving down to Port Stephens. In exchange, Paterson gained the northern fringe of Newcastle from the seat of Newcastle, and the remainder of the Maitland area and Kurri Kurri from Hunter. These changes dramatically changed the political make-up of the seat. The previous Liberal margin of 9.8% was destroyed, and replaced by a notional Labor margin of 0.4%.
History
A seat called Paterson in the northeastern Hunter was first created in 1949 and won by Allen Fairhall of the Liberal Party, who served as a minister in the Menzies, Holt and Gorton governments before retirement in 1969. He was succeeded by Frank O’Keefe of the Country Party, who held the seat until 1984, when it was abolished in the redistribution.
The seat was recreated in 1993, when it was won by Labor’s Bob Horne. In 1996 he was defeated by Bob Baldwin of the Liberal Party. Over the next two elections, the ‘two Bobs’ successively defeated each other, with Horne winning in 1998 and Baldwin in 2001. Horne retired after his 2001 defeat and Baldwin was re-elected in 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Bob Baldwin is not running for re-election.
- Graham Burston (One Nation)
- Brian Clare (Rise Up Australia)
- John Brown (Greens)
- Meryl Swanson (Labor)
- Peter Davis (Citizens Electoral Council)
- Karen Howard (Liberal)
- Peter Arena (Christian Democratic Party)
Assessment
Paterson is a seat on a very tight margin and it could go to either major party.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Bob Baldwin | Liberal | 46,922 | 53.9 | +2.6 | 41.4 |
| Bay Marshall | Labor | 25,811 | 29.6 | -8.6 | 40.0 |
| John Brown | Greens | 5,812 | 6.7 | +0.7 | 6.3 |
| Jayson Geoffrey Packett | Palmer United Party | 5,451 | 6.3 | +6.3 | 7.0 |
| Anna Balfour | Christian Democratic Party | 1,854 | 2.1 | +1.1 | 2.2 |
| Bob Holz | Rise Up Australia | 877 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 0.5 |
| Peter J Davis | Citizens Electoral Council | 390 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 0.6 |
| Others | 2.0 | ||||
| Informal | 4,746 | 5.5 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Bob Baldwin | Liberal | 52,080 | 59.8 | +4.5 | 49.6 |
| Bay Marshall | Labor | 35,037 | 40.2 | -4.5 | 50.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into six parts. Polling places in the Port Stephens council area have been split between Raymond Terrace and Nelson Bay. Polling places around Kurri Kurri have been grouped together. Booths in the Newcastle council area and in the easternmost part of Maitland council area have been grouped as “central”, and the remainder of the Maitland area has been split between Maitland and East Maitland.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred in four areas, ranging from 54% in East Maitland to 68% in Kurri Kurri. The Liberal Party won majorities in the two areas furthest to the east, winning 52.6% in Raymond Terrace and 58.3% in Nelson Bay.
| Voter group | GRN % | PUP % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East Maitland | 7.4 | 7.1 | 54.3 | 15,371 | 15.9 |
| Nelson Bay | 6.9 | 6.6 | 41.7 | 11,931 | 12.4 |
| Raymond Terrace | 5.8 | 7.3 | 47.4 | 11,747 | 12.2 |
| Maitland | 5.7 | 7.7 | 59.5 | 10,075 | 10.4 |
| Central | 4.5 | 7.5 | 59.1 | 7,844 | 8.1 |
| Kurri Kurri | 6.1 | 8.4 | 67.7 | 5,980 | 6.2 |
| Other votes | 6.3 | 6.3 | 44.6 | 33,513 | 34.7 |
With Baldwin retiring, plus the major redistribution, this should be a notional Labor win.
Frankly I am not convinced that the Libs could have won this seat even if Baldwin was not going, his retirement just made it a definite gain.
W of S
I agree. The new voters from Hunter would have been turkey’s voting for Christmas!!!. Just like all the other Newcastle seats. They will have nothing, & gain nothing. They ought to be used to it (the mushroom treatment !!), & woul’dn’t know different.
A pity though for the voters of the Terrace, & Nelson’s Bay
That’s a rather disgusting comment
Dan
How ?? Does labor fall over itself to look after it’s loyal Hunter region constituents ??
It may have slipped your mind but the Hunter tried the Libs and they were treated terribly, apparently the Libs in the hunter govern through brown paper bags
Dan
state politics again !!!. Yes we all remember what happened in Port Stephens.
So what was the terrible effect really ???
What difference has it made really???.
How does it measure up to many decades of great indifference ???
Do try & be pragmatic, & see things in some sort of realistic context.
Dan, there’s no need to be so obviously partisan and play political point scoring in the comments thread. Can we please keep it to a discussion of the seat?
I think Meryl is a great local candidate, and this will be a likely A.L.P. gain
The better votes at the last state election were in Port Stephens & Maitland on this basis 55 to
57% Labor vote plus Kurri Kurri in this seat definitely a Labor seat
Labor’s 1972 & 1974 candidate Noel Unicomb donkey vote victim
‘Jabba’ it was related to the region i suggest you check the records. But i do agree Meryl is a terrific candidate every man woman and DOG ought to vote for her and will definatley be taking the GUIDE on how to vote for her
Jabba the BLM, & Dan
So Meryl is terrific. No doubt, but how & why ??
she has the right amount of experience as both a member of her community through her radio program and political experience by working for Joel Fitzgibbon, its hard to see any lib topping that given most libs in the hunter have had experience in ICAC
Dan
Sounds very impressive.
Perhaps she will get up to speed quickly.
Get a shadow ministry , & show up some of the dills, & fools, in opposition
Could even be a future leader.
I really don’t understand why MPs like Baldwin don’t stand and fight. Fair enough if he wants to retire – after 17 of the last 20 years in parliament he’d be entitled to. But by dropping hints about shifting to Lyne (possibly as an independent!), he clearly signalled his desire to continue.
And what’s the worst case scenario? A forced retirement. No different to a voluntary retirement.
With the favourable redistribution, Baldwin’s cowardice and the encouraging results at state level, I’d be very surprised if this seat isn’t held by Labor in the next parliament.
DW
This IS a labor seat, & it will remain one until it is completely redrawn in 7 years time. No ifs or buts.
Going down with the ship is all very theatrical, & heroic, but really cowardice ?? I am sure Bob will spend his time productively, & maybe he’ll even keep on contributing to his community???.
WD & DW
I Agree that this is now a Labor seat and will continue to be.
I wouldn’t say Baldwin is being a coward either, he had quite a long career, not particularly fruitful I might add but nonetheless a reasonable stint. If anything he was played a bad card and it would be reasonable for him to have a look at Lyne, ultimately that wasn’t the route he went down.
Karen Howard has been endorsed here as the Liberal Party candidate. Labor will win this fairly easily I’d imagine.
A carpetbagger from Newcastle. I’m not sure you can get away with that in regional seats like this. Labor win/hold.
I would have thought this electorate has pretty strong links to Newcastle.
I remember the late 90s ‘battle of the Bobs’ from friends who lived in this seat, it seemed like it was going to keep changing every election for decades. ABC seat & candidate profile http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-18/the-battle-for-paterson-electorate/7422168
First time I had looked at Karen’s CV – pretty damn impressive candidate actually – mix of business ownership/directorship of small/large/NFP’s. Versus an out of work radio DJ. Be closer than people think if they have some town hall debates etc.
Seems that Libs have given up any hope here with a reported party polling showing a 5-6% swing to the ALP….
Recent candidates debate. http://www.maitlandmercury.com.au/story/3973479/paterson-candidates-face-off-video/?cs=171
@Yappo this is to be expected. If polls were showing a close race in this electorate then Labor would be on track for a walloping, probably even if Baldwin had stayed.
I also hear that the Libs have withdrawn resources from this one as well. Unfortunate as they did have a reasonable candidate. I think even if Bob had stayed on the redistribution was a mountain to high to climb.
My prediction: Likely Labor gain (notional hold), following the radical redistribution wiping out retiring MP Bob Baldwin’s margin. On these boundaries, Paterson should be a Labor seat except for landslides.