Frankston – Victoria 2018

ALP 0.5%

Incumbent MP
Paul Edbrooke, since 2014.

Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. The electorate covers the suburbs of Frankston, Frankston North, Frankston South and Karingal, all within the City of Frankston.

History
A seat with the name “Frankston” has existed twice: from 1967 to 1985, and again since 1992.

The seat was first won in 1967 by Liberal minister Edward Meagher, who had served as Member for Mentone from 1955 to 1967. He served as a minister in the Liberal state government from 1961 until 1973. Meagher retired from Frankston in 1976.

Frankston was won in 1976 by Graeme Weideman. He served as a minister in the Liberal state government from 1981 to 1982, when he lost Frankston, and the Liberal government lost power.

Frankston was won by the ALP’s Jane Hill. In 1985, Frankston was abolished and replaced by Frankston North and Frankston South. Hill moved to the seat of Frankston North, and Weideman returned to Parliament as the Liberal Member for Frankston South.

In 1992, the two seats were redrawn again, being replaced by Frankston and Frankston East. Hill contested the marginal seat of Frankston East unsuccessfully, while Weideman won Frankston, which was a relatively safe Liberal seat.

Weideman retired in 1996, and was succeeded by Andrea McCall, also from the Liberal Party. McCall was re-elected in 1999.

Shortly after the 1999 Victorian state election, the Frankston East by-election was won by the ALP, bringing Labor into power. Prior to the 2002 election, Frankston East was abolished in a by-election, which brought strong Labor areas into the seat of Frankston.

At the 2002 election, McCall lost the redrawn Frankston to the ALP’s Alistair Harkness. Harkness was re-elected in 2006.

In 2010, Harkness was defeated by Liberal candidate Geoff Shaw.

Shaw has been a very controversial MP during his first term in Parliament. In 2012, he was accused of using his parliamentary vehicle as part of his business. In March 2013, Shaw resigned from the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party held a slim 45-43 majority in the Assembly, so Shaw’s resignation put him in the balance of power. The last eighteen months saw Shaw demand concessions from the government, and come into conflict with the Speaker at the time, which resulted in the Speaker resigning. He was charged with a number of offences in late 2013, which were later dropped.

Shaw ran as an independent in Frankston in 2014, and came a distant third. Labor’s Paul Edbrooke was elected.

Candidates

Assessment
Frankston is Labor’s most marginal seat. The Liberal Party would’ve been weakened by the Geoff Shaw affair in 2014, so could rebound in 2018, although Labor would likely benefit from incumbency.

2014 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Sean Armistead Liberal 12,54235.8-9.4
Paul Edbrooke Labor 12,24135.0-2.9
Geoff ShawIndependent4,51412.9+12.9
Jeanette Swain Greens 2,7908.0-0.7
Jamie MillerSex Party9722.8+0.5
Paul MasonFamily First4151.2-0.4
Anthony WallaceAustralian Christians3080.9+0.9
Jerome BreenIndependent3110.9+0.9
Lin TregenzaRise Up Australia2120.6+0.6
Reade SmithIndependent1790.5+0.5
Alan NichollsPeople Power/No Smart Meters1580.5+0.5
Joseph ToscanoIndependent1400.4+0.4
Mervyn K. VogtIndependent1250.4+0.4
Marianne TootellIndependent870.2+0.2
Informal3,4108.9

2014 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Paul Edbrooke Labor 17,66550.5+0.9
Sean Armistead Liberal 17,32949.5-0.9

Booth breakdown

Booths in Frankston have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, polling 56.8% in the north-west and 58.7% in the north-east. The Liberal Party polled 51.9% in the south, while also winning a majority of the special vote.

Independent candidate Geoff Shaw polled a primary vote ranging from 11.4% in the south to 16.1% in the north-east.

Voter groupIND prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South11.448.110,29329.4
North-East16.158.75,61516.0
North-West14.556.84,51012.9
Other votes10.747.76,75419.3
Pre-poll13.549.07,82222.4

Election results in Frankston at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for independent candidate Geoff Shaw.

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9 COMMENTS

  1. Looking at the primary votes, you’d reckon that would translate to a Liberal victory. In the distribution of preferences, the final elimination saw the Liberals receive 64% of Shaw’s preferences. They needed 67%.

    The other thing to note is the redistribution prior to the last election which added Frankston North. That appears to have made all the difference.

  2. It’s weird that Shaw’s best booths were in Frankston North; i.e. the only voters who weren’t his constituents.

  3. This is basically the federal seat of Dunkley in miniature. Solid working-class suburbs north of Frankston combined with affluent and Liberal areas south of Frankston, balancing out to give a marginal seat.

  4. Knowing this seat, the three key booths the ALP need to hold are the Frankston South booth (the 56%), Ballam Park booth (the 57%) and Karginal Heights booth (54%), at federal level both Ballam Park and Karginal Heights are held by larger margins however those booths are usually won by the Liberals, if they win the seat covering the area.

  5. Very big infrastructure investment into this community from State Labor – oddly opposed by the Federal Liberals. If State Labor matches the Federal Labor vote in the equivalent booths in 2016, Labor will win this seat comfortably.

  6. I think one thing that is often overlooked in analysis of Frankston in 2014 is that Sean Armistead wasn’t particularly widely liked. Didn’t help that if you added a moustache to his campaign posters he was a dead ringer for Borat. Shaw wasn’t popular either, but successfully drew a lot of votes from the religious right who would otherwise have voted for the Libs. Armistead had left the area and as far as I know is now angling to be a federal senator for the Libs.

    Michael Lamb, as a copper rather than a business-type, is a different character from either Armistead or Geoff Shaw and could potentially do a lot better. That said, I expect Edbrooke to get back in, probably by a few % more than last time. He’s got plenty of actual development to point at (Frankston station rebuild and Skye/Seaford crossing removals for starters), and federal MP Crewther’s impending legal troubles won’t look good for the Libs brand, especially with recent history of Billson and Shaw also having legal questions over them.

    Carrum candidate Donna Bauer also (apparently) implied last week at a public meeting that the Libs were planning to renege on their promise to extend the suburban trains to Baxter, instead terminating at Langwarrin. Not sure how that would work, as part of the Libs’ backing for Baxter was so that they could cancel Labor’s plans to build a train maintenance facility at Kananook.

  7. ^ also fake news Expat. Matthew Guy was at Baxter Station yesterday confirming extra car parks for Baxter Station, once the train line ends there.

    There will be new stations at Frankston East and Langwarrin.

  8. My prediction: Likely Labor hold, Edbrooke should get a sophomore boost, if this falls the Andrews government is likely gone (or at least without a majority).

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