Buninyong – Victoria 2018

ALP 6.4%

Incumbent MP
Geoff Howard, since 2014. Previously member for Ballarat East 1999-2014.

Geography
Western Victoria. Buninyong covers southeastern parts of the City of Ballarat, most of Moorabool Shire and northern parts of Golden Plains Shire. In addition to Ballarat, the electorate covers Buninyong, Ballan, Haddon, Meredith and Mount Clear.

History
Buninyong was a new name for Ballarat East, with the name changed at the 2014 election.

Ballarat East first existed as a Victorian Legislative Assembly district from 1859 until 1927. It elected two members from 1859 until 1889, when it became a single-member district. The single member district was held by Liberal and Nationalist members from 1889 until 1924, when it was won by the ALP. The seat was abolished in 1927.

Ballarat East was recreated in 1992, and won by the Liberal Party’s Barry Traynor. He won with a slim 1.6% margin in 1992, which was cut to 1% in 1996, before he lost to the ALP’s Geoff Howard in 1999.

Howard increased his margin to 7.6% in 2002 before it was cut to 6.6% in 2006, and cut further to 1.5% in 2010. Howard was re-elected with an increased margin to the renamed seat of Buninyong in 2014.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Geoff Howard is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Buninyong is a reasonably safe seat and would only come into play if the Liberal Party did particularly well.

2014 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Geoff Howard Labor 15,98443.5+2.7
Ben Taylor Liberal 12,82935.0-7.5
Tony Goodfellow Greens 4,01710.9-0.4
Sonia Smith Nationals 2,3016.3+5.5
Keith GeyerFamily First9502.6-0.7
James Donovan KeaysCountry Alliance6221.7+0.6
Informal1,8524.8

2014 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Geoff Howard Labor 20,69756.4+4.8
Ben Taylor Liberal 16,00643.6-4.8

Booth breakdown

Booths in Buninyong have been divided into four areas. Polling places in the City of Ballarat have been grouped together – a majority of ordinary votes were cast in this area.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 50.9% in the north-east to 59.3% in Ballarat.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 8.8% in the north-east to 12.7% in Ballarat.

Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Ballarat12.759.312,91135.2
West9.556.74,00810.9
North-East8.850.93,88010.6
South-East9.251.21,4564.0
Other votes12.257.55,29914.4
Pre-poll9.655.19,14924.9

Election results in Buninyong at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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4 COMMENTS

  1. Could be in play this time. The Nats, if they choose to nominate a candidate, have left their run very late. So assuming they don’t field a candidate – the Liberals will have clear air and no threat of leakage of preferences.

    The new Labor candidate has got herself caught up in the rorts scandal hovering over Labor. Still think it’ll be a Labor hold, but with an above average swing against them.

  2. Anton, May I ask why?

    Considering the large swing to Labor last time, and the scandals that the current Labor candidate had found herself in, I wouldn’t be surprised if the seat flips.

    Maybe I’m seeing things through blue tinted glasses.

  3. The Ballarat area has been pretty pro-Labor since Bracks narrowly edged out Kennett in 1999, and federally it hasn’t shown much of a Liberal resurgence. As I think Labor will win overall, I don’t see the Liberals gaining this.

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