Lyons – Tasmania 2014

Incumbent MPs

  • Rene Hidding (LIB), since 1996.
  • Tim Morris (GRN), since 2002.
  • Michael Polley (ALP), since 1972.
  • Mark Shelton (LIB), since 2010.
  • Rebecca White (ALP), since 2010.

Geography
Tasmania’s largest seat by area, Lyons includes parts of every region of the state. The seat stretches from the outskirts of Devonport and Launceston in the north to the outskirts of Hobart in the south, as well as the central highlands and the east coast of Tasmania.

History
Lyons was first created for the 1986 election, sharing a name and boundaries with the federal electorate of Lyons. This replaced the seat of Wilmot, which had previously covered central Tasmania since the introduction of proportional representation in 1909.

Wilmot tended to favour conservative parties, and the conservative parties held the district by a 4-2 margin for the first five elections under proportional representation. At the 1922 election, the Nationalists lost two of their four seats to the Country Party.

In 1925, the ALP won a third seat for the first time, while the other Country Party seat was won by an independent. The major parties each won three seats in 1928, before the Nationalists returned to a 4-2 majority in 1931. The fourth Nationalist seat was lost to an independent in 1934, and Wilmot produced a 3-3 split in 1937. The ALP won a 4-2 majority once only, in 1941, before Wilmot reverted to a 3-3 split between the ALP and the Liberal Party at the 1946, 1948, 1950, 1955 and 1956 elections.

When a seventh seat was added in 1959, the ALP won a fourth seat. The Liberals and ALP maintained at least three seats each from 1959 until 1989, with the major parties competing over the seventh seat. The ALP won a 4-3 majority in 1959, 1964, 1972, 1976 and 1979, with the Liberals winning four seats in 1969, 1982 and the renamed seat of Lyons in 1986.

The 1989 election saw the ALP lose their third seat to independent Green Christine Milne. This 4-2-1 split was maintained in 1992. As part of the swing away from the Liberal government in 1996, the ALP regained its third seat off the Liberals.

The reduction in numbers in Lyons in 1998 saw Milne’s seat and one of the three Liberal seats eliminated, producing a 3-2 split for the ALP. The 2002 election saw the Liberals lose yet another seat to Greens candidate Tim Morris. The ALP won three seats, alongside one Green and two Liberals. This result was maintained in 2006.

In 2002, the ALP lost their third seat to the Liberal Party. Labor MPs David Llewellyn and Heather Butler both lost their seats, which went to the ALP’s Rebecca White and the Liberal Party’s Mark Shelton.

Candidates

  • Liberal Party – Group A
    • Guy Barnett
    • Bertrand Cadart
    • Martyn Evans
    • Rene Hidding*
    • Mark Shelton*
  • Tasmanian Greens – Group B
    • Pip Brinklow
    • Glenn Millar
    • Tim Morris*
    • Hannah Rubenach
    • Stephanie Taylor
  • Australian Labor Party – Group C
    • Darren Clark
    • Jessey Dillon
    • Bob Gordon
    • David Llewellyn
    • Rebecca White*
  • National Party – Group D
    • Craig Davey
    • Brett Hall
    • Leo Perotti
    • Anne Salt
  • Palmer United Party – Group E
    • Mark Grewar
    • Wayne Shoobridge
    • Quentin Von Stieglitz
  • Ungrouped independents
    • Paul Belcher
    • Murray Stewart

Sitting Labor MP Michael Polley is not running for re-election.

Assessment
The Liberal Party will be hoping to pick up a third seat in Lyons, which will require a significant swing. The ALP and the Greens both polled more than their required quotas in 2010. Despite the high barriers, Lyons is a place with potential for the Liberal Party, if they can repeat the large swings seen in the electorate at the 2013 federal election. The Liberal Party has a real chance of gaining a seat, either off Labor or the Greens.

2006 result

CandidateVotes%Quota
Karen Cassidy1,5932.470.15
Jackie Graham1,0391.610.10
Tim Morris9,10814.130.85
Sharon Prior8711.350.08
Karl Stevens1,0131.570.09
Tasmanian Greens13,62421.141.27
Leigh R Gray1,8672.900.17
Rene Hidding7,60811.810.71
Jane Howlett4,4976.980.42
James Playsted4,0276.250.37
Mark Shelton5,2638.170.49
Liberal Party23,26236.102.17
Heather Butler2,5403.940.24
David Llewellyn6,61210.260.62
Michael Polley8,30212.880.77
Brendan Sullivan1,2932.010.12
Rebecca White6,45310.010.60
Nick Wright2,3573.660.22
Australian Labor Party27,55742.762.57
Polling places in Lyons at the 2010 state election. Central in orange, North in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Lyons at the 2010 state election. Central in orange, North in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Lyons was divided into three parts:

  • Central – Break O’Day, Central Highlands, Glamorgan/Spring Bay, Northern Midlands and Southern Midlands council areas.
  • North – Kentish, Latrobe, Meander Valley and West Tamar council areas.
  • South – Brighton, Derwent Valley, Sorell and Tasman council areas.

The ALP topped the poll in the south and the centre of the seat, while the Liberal Party topped the poll in the north of the seat.

The ALP’s primary vote ranged from 33.7% in the north to 51.4% in the south. The Liberal Party’s vote ranged from 29.2% in the south to 42.6% in the north. The Greens vote ranged from 18.5% in the centre to 24.7% in the north.

Voter groupALP %LIB %GRN %Total votes% of votes
South51.3729.1719.4618,95129.41
Central44.2137.3218.4716,92126.26
North32.6642.6224.7316,27925.26
Other votes40.8736.4522.6712,29219.07
Labor primary votes in Lyons at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in Lyons at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes in Lyons at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes in Lyons at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Lyons at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Lyons at the 2010 state election.
Top-polling party at each polling place in Lyons at the 2010 state election.
Top-polling party at each polling place in Lyons at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in southern parts of Lyons at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in southern parts of Lyons at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes in southern parts of Lyons at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes in southern parts of Lyons at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in southern parts of Lyons at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in southern parts of Lyons at the 2010 state election.

7 COMMENTS

  1. Nationals (?) candidates announced

    Vlad Gala (great name), real estate agent
    Craig Davey of Sheffield

    Also announced Ken Dorsey, “Somerset businessman” for Braddon but the Braddon entry here has commenting closed.

  2. I think that the Liberals will take a seat from the Greens. Then again, I tipped this to happen in 2010, and Tim Morris of the Greens actually topped the vote count – how does that figure in an electorate full of forests and forestry?!

  3. It is easier for the #1 Green to top the vote count because the #1 Green gets a very high share of the Green vote, whereas for other parties the vote tends to be spread between candidates. Lyons is also not that easy an electorate for one major party candidate to dominate because of its size and number of small towns. Didn’t stop Robin Gray!

    There are some very Green pockets in the electorate, especially on the West Tamar where the pulp mill may be still an issue.

  4. PUP has released several candidate names in a one-minute video that was taken down twice in 48 hours in order to correct spelling mistakes. These have been added to my candidate guide:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/2014-tasmanian-state-election-candidate.html

    One of the PUP candidates for this electorate is so amazingly odd that I have written a whole article about the guy:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/the-strange-world-of-pups-mark-grewar.html

Comments are closed.