Florey – SA 2018

ALP 9.2%

Incumbent MP
Frances Bedford (IND), since 1997.

Geography
North-eastern Adelaide. Most of Florey lies in the Tea Tree Gully local government area, as well as small parts in Port Adelaide Enfield and Salisbury. Florey covers the suburbs of Modbury and Modbury Heights, and parts of Gilles Plains, Hope Valley, Modbury North, Para Hills, Para Vista, Valley View and Wynn Vale.

Redistribution
Florey shifted west, taking in a large part of the neighbouring seat of Playford. Florey lost Ridgehaven and Modbury to Newland and also lost Modbury Heights to Wright. Florey then gained Ingle Farm, Pooraka and Walkley Heights from Playford, and a small area from Port Adelaide. These changes increased the Labor margin from 2.5% to 9.2%.

History
Florey has existed since 1970, and has been held by the ALP at all but one election.

Charles Wells held the seat for the Labor Party from 1970 to 1979, followed by Harold O’Neill from 1979 to 1982.

Bob Gregory won the seat in 1982, and held the seat until his loss in 1993.

The Liberal Party’s Sam Bass won the seat in a shock result in 1993. He held the seat for one term, and in 1997 lost to Frances Bedford.

Bedford has been re-elected four times.

A redistribution following the 2014 election moved a majority of voters in Playford into Florey, and Bedford was thus challenged for Labor preselection by Playford MP Jack Snelling, who won. Bedford resigned from the ALP following this preselection defeat to sit as an independent. Snelling subsequently decided to retire.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP for Playford Jack Snelling was originally preselected to run for Labor but is no longer running.

  • Frances Bedford (Independent)
  • Adam Gatt (Greens)
  • Suzi Waechter (Dignity)
  • Rik Morris (Labor)
  • John Peake (Conservatives)
  • Gagan Sharma (Liberal)
  • Geoff Russell (Animal Justice)

Assessment
On paper, Florey is a reasonably safe Labor seat. The independent candidacy of Frances Bedford complicates things. A Reachtel poll in early 2017 suggested Bedford had a real chance of winning. A split in the Labor vote could also create space for SA Best, although Florey is a relatively weak area for Nick Xenophon.

2014 election result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Frances Bedford Labor 8,98343.8-1.149.8
Damian Wyld Liberal 8,31740.6+3.034.3
Richard BuntingFamily First1,6778.2+1.59.1
Kim Thomson Greens 1,5177.4+0.96.8
Informal7083.3

2014 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Frances Bedford Labor 10,75552.5-1.159.2
Damian Wyld Liberal 9,73947.5+1.140.8

Booth breakdown

Booths in Florey have been divided into three parts: east, north-west and south-west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53.1% in the east to 67.3% in the north-west.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North-West67.37,59531.4
South-West57.45,97824.7
East53.15,11421.1
Other votes55.85,49922.7

Two-party-preferred votes in Florey at the 2014 SA state election

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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.