Wright – SA 2014

ALP 4.9%

Incumbent MP
Jennifer Rankine, since 1997.

Geography
Northern Adelaide. Wright covers parts of Salisbury and Tea Tree Gully council areas, including the suburb of Salisbury East and parts of Salisbury Heights, Greenwith, Golden Grove, Gulfview Heights and Wynn Vale.

Map of Wright's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Wright’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Wright has shifted north, losing parts of Gulfview Heights and Salisbury Plain, and gaining areas north of Greenwith. The ALP’s margin increased from 4.6% to 4.7%.

History
The electorate of Wright has existed since the 1993 election. The seat was won by the Liberal Party at the 1993 landslide election but has been won by Labor at every other election.

The seat was created as a notionally safe Labor seat, but at the 1993 election a landslide swept in the Liberal Party’s Scott Ashenden.

In 1997, Ashenden lost to the ALP’s Jennifer Rankine. Rankine has held the seat ever since. Rankine was appointed to the ministry after the 2006 election, and currently serves as Minister for Education.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Jennifer Rankine is running for re-election. The Liberal Party is running Lyn Petrie. The Greens are running Tom Lowe. Family First is running Mark Potter. Danyse Soester is running as an independent.

Assessment
Wright is a marginal seat, and with a margin of less than 5% could well be vulnerable. The ALP will be hoping to hold on by limiting the swing.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Jennifer RankineALP10,68848.1-9.4
Tina CelesteLIB8,30937.4+10.7
Mark PotterFF1,4886.7-0.6
Arthur SeagerGRN1,1325.1+1.2
Garry ConnorD4D5812.6+0.2

2010 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Jennifer RankineALP12,12654.6-10.7
Tina CelesteLIB10,07245.4+10.7
Polling places in Wright at the 2010 state election. East in orange, South in blue, West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Wright at the 2010 state election. East in orange, South in blue, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: East, South and West. Booths in Salisbury local government area have been grouped as west, while those in Tea Tree Gully are split between east and south.

The ALP won a majority in all three areas, ranging from 52.9% in the south to 58.7% in the west. Family First came third in all three areas, ranging from 7.4% in the west to 5.6% in the south. The Greens vote peaked at 5.6% in the east, but was always less than Family First.

Voter groupGRN %FF %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of ordinary votes
East5.576.7953.506,47934.33
West4.527.4058.746,38933.85
South5.345.5852.926,00731.83
Other votes5.607.5852.924,641
Two-party-preferred votes in Wright at the 2010 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Wright at the 2010 state election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. My prediction: At the upper end of marginal Labor seats, would currently go Liberal based on current polling. One to watch.

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