Adelaide – SA 2014

LIB 4.2%

Incumbent MP
Rachel Sanderson, since 2010.

Geography
Central Adelaide. The electorate covers the Adelaide city centre, as well as the suburbs of North Adelaide, Ovingham, Fitzroy, Thorngate, Medindie, Medindie Gardens, Gilberton, Walkerville and parts of Prospect, Nailsworth and Collinswood. Adelaide covers the entirety of the City of Adelaide, a majority of both Prospect and Walkerville council areas, and small parts of Charles Sturt local government area.

Redistribution
No change.

History
The electorate of Adelaide has existed since early in the 20th century. The seat was dominated by the ALP prior to 1989. Since 1989, the Liberal Party has held the seat for four out of six terms.

The seat of Adelaide was held by the ALP continuously from 1944 until 1989.

In 1989, the Liberal Party’s Michael Armitage won the seat. Armitage served as a minister from 1993, and retired in 2002.

In 2002, the ALP’s Jane Lomax-Smith, a former Lord Mayor of Adelaide, defeated the new Liberal candidate. Lomax-Smith was re-elected in 2006, and over her two terms served in a variety of ministerial roles.

The Liberal Party’s Rachel Sanderson defeated Lomax-Smith in 2010, with a massive 14.5% swing.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Rachel Sanderson is running for re-election. The ALP is running Prospect mayor David O’Loughlin. The Greens are running Robert Simms. Dignity for Disability are running Anna Tree.

  • Anna Tree (Dignity for Disability)
  • Rachel Sanderson (Liberal)
  • David O’Loughlin (Labor)
  • Robert Simms (Greens)

Assessment
Adelaide is a marginal electorate, but the expected swing to the Liberal Party should ensure Sanderson wins a second term.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Rachel SandersonLIB8,95644.5+10.9
Jane Lomax-SmithALP6,71033.3-14.5
Brett FerrisGRN2,34411.7+2.4
Ruben SebbenRAH7043.5+3.5
Samantha PaiorD4D3741.9-0.4
Tim BirdseyeG4C3501.7+1.7
Laury BaisFF3031.5-1.2
Nick ApostolouFLT2821.4+1.4
Shaun McGrathFREE970.5+0.5

2010 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Rachel SandersonLIB10,90954.2+14.5
Jane Lomax-SmithALP9,21145.8-14.5
Polling places in Adelaide at the 2010 state election. Adelaide in blue, North Adelaide in red, Prospect in green, Walkerville in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Adelaide at the 2010 state election. Adelaide in blue, North Adelaide in red, Prospect in green, Walkerville in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Those polling places in the City of Adelaide have been divided between Adelaide and North Adelaide. Polling places in Walkerville and Prospect local government areas have been grouped together along council boundaries.

The Liberal Party won huge majorities in North Adelaide (61.8%) and Walkerville (68.5%). The ALP won much smaller majorities in Prospect (52.3%) and Adelaide (52.8%), but in two areas with larger populations than the Liberal-voting areas.

The Greens came third in the electorate, with 16.5% in Adelaide, 10.7% in Prospect, 10.4% in North Adelaide and 7.6% in Walkerville.

Voter groupGRN %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of ordinary votes
Prospect10.7347.706,07430.19
Adelaide16.5247.243,42117.00
North Adelaide10.4061.793,20115.91
Walkerville7.6368.502,29511.41
Other votes12.0755.495,12925.49
Two-party-preferred votes in Adelaide at the 2010 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Adelaide at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Adelaide at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Adelaide at the 2010 state election.

7 COMMENTS

  1. My suspicion has always been that there was a personal vote against J-LO that delivered the record swimg. My guess would be Sanderson has the smallest sophmore surge this election.

  2. In all honestly, I reckon there will be a swing back to Labor this time. The swing last time was highly unusual and I would expect a slight correction this time at the very least.

    Its still a long stretch to say David O’Loughlin may win the seat however. I hope he does, he sounds like a man that has much to offer. I like the way he is so blunt about so many things. He rightly advocates for direct funding of local government by the federal government as should be recognised in the constitution. He also has a grasp on national affairs by criticising Howard and praising Keating regarding the anti-intellectual bogan’s black hole this country has become. I take my hat off to him.

    If David wins, that all but rules out any prospect of the Liberals winning a majority.

    As things stand now with just 7 weeks to go to the election, the result would perhaps be about 23 seats to Labor and anything in between 20-24 seats to the Liberals depending on how the Independents hold up. But in such an environment now where the combined primary votes for major parties is declining and typically under 80%, it would be a surprise for any of them to lose. In any case, I read an article saying some of the independents were peeved of with the Liberals regarding their strategy and increasingly unlikely to support them in a hung parliament.

    Furthermore, Tony Abbott is a growing drain on the state Liberal vote and the trend is certainly running against them.

    The state Liberals have thrown a golden opportunity right in the bin out of sheer political incompetence. A government which was dying of old age has been giving sufficient breathing space to replenish its own ranks and renew itself with new policies being announced last year. Out of the 12 or 13 cabinet members in government, only Jay himself is a member of the original Rann cabinet from 2002. When all this was occurring, the Liberals were off the wheel and absent from most headlines.

  3. I agree this seat should be a target for the ALP. A strong candidate in a relatively labor area, this would make the libs road to majority difficult even with the reliance of independents. People don’t realise that labor isn’t as unpopular as they were at the NSW and QLD election and that the libs have alot of seats they need to gain to reach a majority.

  4. PJ – it was simply a one-off shock that you get in any election, perhaps much like the 14%+ swing from Labor in Fowler at 2010 federal election which was then corrected last year by a massive swing to Labor to adjust back to its historical tendency.

    Dont be surprised to see a similiar scenario in Adelaide this time round.

Comments are closed.