Scenic Rim – QLD 2017

LNP 9.2%

Incumbent MP
Jon Krause, member for Beaudesert since 2012.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Scenic Rim covers rural areas to the west of the Gold Coast and to the south of Brisbane. The seat covers most of Scenic Rim Region and southern rural parts of Logan City, including Jimboomba, Rathdowney, Beechmont, Mount Tamborine, Boonah and Aratula.

Redistribution
Scenic Rim is a new name for the seat of Beaudesert. The northern edge of the electorate shifted, losing areas in the north-east and gained areas in the north-west. Scenic Rim lost the area around Jimboomba to Logan, and gained the southern rural fringe of Ipswich from Lockyer. These changes increased the LNP margin from 7.5% to 9.2%.


History
The seat of Beaudesert has existed since 1992. At every election the seat has been won by the National Party or its successor the LNP.

Kev Lingard won Beaudesert for the National Party in 1992. Lingard had held the seat of Fassifern since 1983. Lingard had served as Speaker for two short periods, and as a minister for the period of one work, during the final three years of the National government between 1987 and 1989.

Lingard served as Deputy Leader of the National Party from 1992 to 1998, and served as a minister in the Borbidge coalition government from 1996 to 1998.

Lingard retired in 2009. He was succeeded by Aidan McLindon, who ran for the Liberal National Party.

Amongst McLindon’s opponents in 2009 was former One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, who came third with 21% of the vote.

In 2010, McLindon had a falling out with his party when he unsuccessfully challenged Lawrence Springborg for the deputy leadership of the LNP.

In June 2010 McLindon resigned from the LNP. He later founded the Queensland Party. Over the next year, McLindon recruited candidates and built the Queensland Party up to contest the next election.

In August 2011 McLindon proposed a merger of the Queensland Party with Bob Katter’s newly-founded Australian Party. Some members of the Queensland Party rejected the merger, and McLindon switched to Katter’s Australian Party, and he ran for that party in 2012.

McLindon was defeated by LNP candidate Jon Krause. Krause was re-elected in 2015.

Candidates

Assessment
Scenic Rim is a safe LNP seat on paper, although it’s a good area for One Nation.

2015 election result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Jon Krause Liberal National 15,08647.5+0.447.9
Kay Hohenhaus Labor 9,28129.2+15.227.5
Pietro Agnoletto Greens 2,6138.2-0.18.1
Robert BowyerOne Nation2,1456.7+4.28.6
Adele IshaacPalmer United Party1,9896.3+6.35.4
Jeremy FredericksFamily First6682.1+0.51.8
Katter’s Australian Party0.5
Informal7532.3

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Jon Krause Liberal National 16,44057.5-3.059.2
Kay Hohenhaus Labor 12,13842.5+3.040.8
Exhausted3,20410.1

Booth breakdown

Booths in Scenic Rim have been divided into four areas: north-east, north-west, south-east and south-west.

The LNP won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 56% in the north-east and north-west to almost 66% in the south-west. A majority of ordinary votes were cast in the north-east corner of the seat.

Voter groupLNP 2CP %Total votes% of votes
North-East56.39,65335.4
South-West65.73,34912.3
North-West56.12,75710.1
South-East60.01,8346.7
Other votes59.09,65535.4

Two-candidate-preferred votes in Scenic Rim at the 2015 QLD state election

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.

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