Gaven – QLD 2017

LNP 2.8%

Incumbent MP
Sid Cramp, since 2015.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Gaven covers inland parts of the Gold Coast, including Pacific Pines, Gaven, Nerang, Highland Park and parts of Carrara.

Redistribution
Gaven lost its western hinterland to Theodore, lost a strip of territory on its eastern boundary to Bonney and Southport, and swapped a small amount of territory with Mudgeeraba. These changes increased the LNP margin from 2.2% to 2.8%.


History

The seat of Gaven was created at the 2001 election. It was created as a notionally Liberal seat, but was won in 2001 by the ALP. The ALP held the seat until losing it in a 2006 by-election. Labor then won the seat back for one more term at the 2006 election.

Gaven largely replaced the seat of Nerang in 2001. Nerang had been held by the National Party from 1986 to 1989.

Nerang was held from 1989 to 2001 by Liberal MP Ray Connor, who briefly served as a minister from 1996 to 1997. When Nerang was abolished Connor unsuccessfully contested the new seat of Mudgeeraba.

Gaven was won in 2001 by Robert Poole of the ALP. Poole was re-elected in 2004.

Poole’s wife and children lived in Thailand, and he was criticised for extended periods he spent overseas. In early 2006 it was revealed that he planned to spend a number of months in Thailand. Peter Beattie demanded that Poole return and threatened the possibility of Poole’s seat being declared vacant. Poole subsequently resigned from Parliament in early 2006.

The 2006 by-election was won by the National Party’s Alex Douglas, defeating the ALP’s Phil Gray.

Less than six months later, Douglas lost to Gray at the general election. Gray held the seat for one term, and in 2009 lost to Douglas, now running for the Liberal National Party.

Douglas was re-elected as the LNP candidate in 2012.

Alex Douglas resigned from the LNP in late 2012, to sit as an independent. He joined the newly formed Palmer United Party in 2013 as the party’s Queensland state leader. He resigned from PUP in August 2014 to again sit as an independent, and lost his seat in 2015.

The LNP’s Sid Cramp defeated Douglas in 2015.

Candidates

Assessment
Gaven is a marginal LNP seat.

2015 election result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Sid Cramp Liberal National 11,78638.9-16.239.7
Michael Riordan Labor 8,70028.7+5.928.7
Alex DouglasIndependent3,77912.5+12.511.7
Adam MarcinkowskiPalmer United Party2,7409.1+9.18.9
Toni Mcpherson Greens 1,8526.1+0.56.2
Ben O’BrienFamily First1,0833.6-1.13.7
Chris IvoryIndependent3211.1+1.11.0
Others0.1
Informal9803.1

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Sid Cramp Liberal National 13,36252.2-16.952.8
Michael Riordan Labor 12,21447.8+16.947.2
Exhausted4,68515.5

Booth breakdown

Booths in Gaven have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

The LNP won over 50% of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, polling 52% in the north and 59% in the south. Labor won 51% in the centre.

Sitting independent MP Alex Douglas came third, with the total vote for independents ranging from 9% in the south to around 13.5% in the centre and north.

Voter groupIND prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central13.548.78,82930.7
North13.651.76,73323.4
South9.058.83,32211.6
Other votes12.955.29,86134.3

Election results in Gaven at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and independent primary votes.

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.