Yeerongpilly – Queensland 2015

LNP 1.44%

Incumbent MP
Carl Judge, since 2012.

Geography
Southern Brisbane. Yeerongpilly covers the suburbs of Yeronga, Annerley, Fairfield, Tarragindi, Moorooka, Salisbury, Yeerongpilly and parts of Macgregor.

History
The seat of Yeerongpilly has existed since 2001, and existed under the name of Yeronga from 1950 to 2001. The seat was held by the Liberal Party until 1989 and has been held by the ALP ever since.

Winston Noble served as the first member for Yeronga, holding it from 1950 to 1964. He was succeeded by Norman Lee, who held the seat until 1989.

In 1989 the seat was won by Labor candidate Matt Foley in the Labor landslide that saw the Goss government take power. Foley became a minister in the Beattie government following the 1998 election. In 2001 he was re-elected in the renamed seat of Yeerongpilly, holding it until his retirement in 2004.

Simon Finn won the seat of Yeerongpilly in 2004, also for the Labor Party. He was re-elected in 2006 and 2009, and served as Minister for Government Services, Building Industry and Information and Communication Technology from 2011 to 2012.

In 2012, Finn was defeated by LNP candidate Carl Judge.

Judge quickly fell out with this LNP colleagues, and was expelled from the party in November 2012. Judge sat as an independent until 2013, when he joined the Palmer United Party.

In 2014, there were plans for Judge to run for the Palmer United Party in Kawana, held by Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie. After briefly serving as PUP state leader, Judge resigned from the party and announced that he would run for re-election in Yeerongpilly.

Candidates

Assessment
Yeerongpilly on paper is a very marginal LNP seat. Prior to the 2012 election, the seat was considered to be a reasonably safe Labor seat. It seems very unlikely that Judge can resist a general pro-Labor swing without the support of the Liberal National Party, so Labor is the clear favourite to win Yeerongpilly.

2012 election result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Carl Judge Liberal National 12,35643.22+8.04
Simon Finn Labor 9,87534.54-11.74
Libby Connors Greens 4,56315.96+0.00
Kathleen HewlettKatter’s Australian1,3124.59+4.59
Alexandra ToddFamily First4801.68+1.68

2012 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Carl Judge Liberal National 13,51651.44+10.17
Simon Finn Labor 12,76048.56-10.17
Polling places in Yeerongpilly at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Yeerongpilly at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Yeerongpilly have been split into three parts: central, north and south.

The LNP topped the primary vote in all three areas, with a vote ranging from 38.5% in the south to 47% in the centre.

Labor came second, with a vote ranging from 33.3% in the centre to 38.3% in the south.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 15% in the centre to 17.7% in the north.

On a two-party-preferred basis, the LNP won 51.8% in the north and 54.2% in the centre, and the ALP polled 53% in the south.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter groupLNP prim %ALP prim %GRN prim %LNP 2PP %Total% of votes
North43.7533.6317.6951.818,03228.10
Central46.8833.3215.0154.216,40422.40
South38.5438.3015.2347.066,30822.07
Other votes43.4733.4615.5652.307,84227.43
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Yeerongpilly at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Yeerongpilly at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Yeerongpilly at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Yeerongpilly at the 2012 Queensland state election.

8 COMMENTS

  1. Leila Abukar is a great LNP candidate and someone who would represent Yeerongpilly well but this seat will very likely be one of the first to go back to Labor. Mark Bailey is a former Councillor for the Brisbane City Council and has been campaigning hard in this seat. Judge will only get about 6% of the vote.

  2. There’s absolutely no way the LNP will pick up a Brisbane seat they don’t hold, especially not one in an area that has a strong history of being Labor and that Labor almost retained in 2012.

  3. PRP will be proven wrong over 6% for Judge. I think Judge will lose but he will get much more than 6%. Not that this matters to ALP Judge vote will come from LNP.

    Seat is one to watch though with a Yuppie Northern half and a rustbelt south. One where the ALP will be balancing the two sides of their party.
    ALP Candidates website appears to show him attempting to cross this divide with family friendly photo of helping put the groceries in the car.

    THe fact that the Greens got 16% & Conservative minors got 6% in the electorate will mean the seat will be decided on PReferences. With an ALP vote of 34% in 2012 ALP’s Mark Bailey has got a lot of ground to catch up.

    When I stood as DLP candidate in MOreton in 1972 & Yeronga in 1974 this area was the ALP part of MOreton. IN fact the SOuthern half of the electorate proiduiced the Communist VOtes which in 1961 (with many more DLP PReferences) that re-elected JIm KIllen and saved Menzies bacon.

    My gut feeling is that unemployemnty in SOuthern half of electorate (Manufacturing) would be much higher than it was in 1961 and Campnebll NEWman will be fighting public sector wortkertsd in the NOrthern ahlf of teh electorate.

    My prediction either Judge or Bailey. Abukar’s preferences will be more important than her primary vote.

    Andrew Jackson

  4. Judge is a first-term MP who only got elected at the top end of the landslide, has quit two different parties in as many years, and had planned to run in a Sunshine Coast seat (a long way from southern Brisbane). He had little chance here as an LNP member; now, he’ll be lucky if he beats the Greens, and may end up in Peter Slipper / Craig Thomson / Adele Carles territory. Under OPV, he’ll probably ruin any chance the LNP had of holding the seat.

  5. Have to agree with Bird about Judge. Labor will win this one back, one of the smallest margins around.

  6. Labor will win, but I think Carl Judge will come second and LNP third on primary vote. Judge probably would of lost even if he hadn’t left the LNP. The anti-LNP swing was too great to withstand, but from Judge’s musical chairs act with going to PUP, abandoning Yeerongpilly, and now re-contesting as an independent. This will be the first of the low hanging fruit that will fall to Labor on election night.

  7. I agree this seat will go to Mark Bailey and the ALP Judge will split the Conservative vote
    and he may come third. Preferences could give a surprise outcome but I doubt it

    Another one for Annastacia so buy yourself a Bus ticket Mark you are off the Parliament House

  8. Mark is head and shoulders above the other candidates; literally.
    Facetiousness aside, he is a genuine, hands on, hard worker. I have experienced his dedicated support for the community way back in the mid nineties, but why doesn’t he look a day older – does he have a secret portrait in his attic or is it just a case of my perspective? Sorry, I can’t help making impertinent comments. Good luck Mark. I swing between Greens and Labour but this time there is no room for not getting fully behind the currently only viable opposition even though the party’s platform is not always to my liking.

Comments are closed.