ALP 7.1%
Incumbent MP
Kate Jones, since 2006.
Geography
North-Western Brisbane. Ashgrove covers the Brisbane suburbs of The Gap, Gaythorne, Enoggera, Ashgrove and parts of Mitchelton and Alderley.
History
The seat of Ashgrove has existed since 1960. The seat was held by the Liberal Party continuously from 1960 to 1983 and has been held by the ALP continuously since 1989.
The seat was first won in 1960 by Douglas Tooth. He had previously won the seat of Kelvin Grove for the Liberal Party in 1957. He held Ashgrove until his retirement in 1974. He was replaced by John Greenwood, also of the Liberal Party.
In 1983, Greenwood lost his seat to the ALP’s Tom Veivers. Veivers held the seat for one term, losing to Liberal candidate Alan Sherlock in 1986. Sherlock again only held the seat for one term, losing in 1989 to Labor candidate Jim Fouras. Fouras had previously held South Brisbane for one term from 1983 to 1986.
Fouras was elected as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly in 1990, and held the position until 1996. He retired from Parliament in 2006.
Kate Jones won Ashgrove in 2006. After winning a second term in 2009 she was appointed as Minister for the Environment, Resource Management and Climate Change. She stepped down from the ministry in June 2011 to focus on her campaign against LNP leader Campbell Newman.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Kate Jones is running for re-election. The LNP is running former Lord Mayor of Brisbane Campbell Newman, who is running as Leader of the Liberal National Party. The Greens are running Sandra Bayley. Katter’s Australian Party is running Norman Wicks.
- Kate Jones (Labor)
- Campbell Newman (Liberal National)
- Norman Wicks (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Ian Nelson (One Nation)
- Trevor Jones (Independent)
- Sandra Bayley (Greens)
Political situation
This seat is a key battle for the 2012 campaign. The Liberal National Party’s controversial plan to parachute Campbell Newman directly from the Lord Mayor’s office to the Premier’s office relies on him defeating up-and-coming Labor MP Jones.
Normally Jones’ 7.1% margin would make her the favourite. However Newman is an extremely strong candidate and is running a strong campaign in the seat. In addition, recent polls suggest the LNP is on track for a swing much larger than 7%.
2009 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kate Jones | ALP | 12,629 | 45.7 | -1.9 |
| Scott McConnel | LNP | 10,293 | 37.3 | +1.4 |
| Robert Hogg | GRN | 3,425 | 12.4 | -3.4 |
| Ian Saunders | IND | 799 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Bill Grieve | DSQ | 355 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Ruth SPencer | IND | 127 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kate Jones | ALP | 14,842 | 57.1 | -1.4 |
| Scott McConnel | LNP | 11,153 | 42.9 | +1.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Ashgrove have been divided into three areas. Booths in the west have been grouped as ‘The Gap’, while the remainder has been divided into North and Central.
The ALP outpolled the LNP in all three areas, with the margin varying from 7.3% in The Gap to 14.6% in the north.
Polling booths in Ashgrove at the 2009 state election. The Gap in blue, Central in orange, North in green.
| Voter group | ALP % | LNP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 44.9 | 36.9 | 13.2 | 8,864 | 32.1 |
| The Gap | 46.1 | 38.8 | 10.7 | 8,214 | 29.7 |
| North | 49.1 | 34.5 | 11.3 | 3,983 | 14.4 |
| Other votes | 44.3 | 37.4 | 14.1 | 6,567 | 23.8 |
Labor primary votes in Ashgrove at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Ashgrove at the 2009 state election.
Greens primary votes in Ashgrove at the 2009 state election.
Hi Ben,
Thought you may be interested in our polls in the area. So far we have conducted three polls into Ashgrove:
September – 52% LNP – 48% ALP
October – 56.5% LNP – 43.5% ALP
November – 54% LNP – 46% ALP
Momentum seems to be heading towards the ALP at the moment. We intend to update this monthly until the election and I’ll update the results as we go.
Cheers,
Nick.
ReachTEL.
C’mon Kate. Please beat Newman as he thinks the most northern point of Queensland is Australia Zoo. With him gone the LNP leader will be … Seeney (no he has lost his seat to Katter), Flegg (C’mon he is one weird dude), Langbrook (he can;t sit down due to the knife in his back from Campbell Newman). Maybe the LNP can bring Peter Slipper back. Kate, for all of us please win.
I really hope the Queensland Greens openly, and loudly, and universally, preference the ALP even if just in this seat. I will be in hysterics if the LNP manage to pull off a win but are unable to get their theoretical leader elected.
This seat is a cracker and is being closely watched by myself my friends who reside in the electorate. These people are SICK TO THE BACK TEETH of the constant speculation that Kate Jones will lose her seat. One thing that they have not seen is Campbell Newman in person. He has a tough job trying to win Brisbane for the LnP. Let’s put to the side that he doesn’t care about regional Qld and that he has no plan on how to deliver the 420,000 jobs in 6 years. Let’s concentrate on the fact that he is going to lose his seat not because he is unpopular or through a terrible campaign. Let’s get to the realistic point that people will vote for kate jones just to DESPITE HIM. People want to see the train wreck that the LnP will become without the sole engine that is keeping them together. Don’t forget, that we have the same pack of LnP misfits on board that we did prior to Campbell. They are the same circus that they were in 2009 and prior to that with the Dr. I am not aligned with any party and am more an advocate for minor parties, of which I know will have no chance in this electorate. KEEP KATE
Apparently this is much more of a Liberal seat than the Labor margin suggests….reflective of how pathetic the conservatives have been in the past two decades I guess.
Newman won area as Lord Mayor when the Liberal party was at a low ebb, so it’s hard to see how he’d lose here now it’s Labor on the nose and the LNP in a much better position.
And while I’m sure nothing would please Labor more than giving Newman a big scare, they need to be careful not to fall into the trap of focussing 110% on Ashgrove at the expense of their campaign in other marginal seats.
Go Kate it is time to end the run of the man that said rape was ok as we know that it is wrong.
it is hard to have a lost leader from outside Parliament. all the best kate
R Nielsen whoever you are, you’re as disgraceful as Jackie Trad is for making those comments. Campbell Newman and Gavin King never said rape was ok. That is so low to use rape victims as a political football, shows Labor has nothing to run on this time, no vision, no ideas all just lies to get back into power.
I reckon that Labor has already written off the election, and is instead putting as much of its resources as possible into keeping Newman out.
Keep Kate (out of Parliament). If she was really the effective local member who devoted all her time to her local people as she claims then why did she give up her ministry? The claim to spend more time in the electorate for locals shows that she has neglected her constituents herself for her personal ambitions to be in Cabinet. Not exactly putting the locals first there Kate. Kate’s claims against Mr Newman- pot meet kettle, kettle meet pot.
The argument that is here about what if Newman doesn’t win his seat is quite amusing. Looking at the current polls and the swings of 20%+ that are a possibility in some seats against Labor a good question to ask would be “What if Anna Bligh does not win her seat? Who will be Premier?” “What if Andrew Fraser does not win his seat? Who will be Treasurer?”
If Jo-ann Miller can hold on to her 22% (and it is on the reachtel poll a big if) then surely she will be in line to become Labor Leader as she will be one of the last few standing and at least she would stand up for Workers better than Bligh and Fraser; unfortunately for Jo-ann she may be rather lonely at the top talking to herself and that is about it.
Latest RealTec poll puts it almost neck and neck, although Antony Green seems to reckon it’s rubbish.
100% agree with Antony Green.
In an Optional Preferential system 49% Primary vote in a single seat is an assured win. And with Kate Jones on 41% she is still too far behind on OPV.
You can see why the LNP tried to parachute into Moggill which is their most safest Brisbane seat. However the local branch did not want him and Flegg refused to go. This is very high risk stuff. Even if Newman does win, will he hold onto it in one or two elections time once the tide begins to turn back towards the ALP?
If he wins this time he should open up a nice margin by the next election. The ALP will have no reason to pour so much money into Ashgrove at the expense of gaining 5-6 others next time round.
If Newman wins this time the ALP still has reason to campaign heavily in Ashgrove next time if it is close so that Newmans hold on power is seen as tenuous.
Campbell Newman has been very critical of the disgraceful policy of the ALP in selling off the proifitable parts of Queensland Rail. Kate JOnes chose to support this policy rather than stand on principel and resign. She stood down only as a minister when the threat to her job became obvious.
However Newman is as un principeled as Jones he criticises the sale of Queensland rail but we all know that he will sell anything that someone else will buy.
HE claims to support Infrstructure but under his regime in Brisbane CIty Council, was there an increase in Council owned infrastructure or did he just have private companies build parasitic infrastructure?
Jones was the architect of the placing of stinking fruit bats above the lives of humans.
Neither of them are fit for office.
Andrew Jackson
Burpengary
My prediction: LNP gain, although this seat will be a fight to the finish.
Hmm…..ReachTel puts it 50-50, actually 50.3-49.7 to Labor!
Although it would be nice to see some other polls from more experienced polling companies before getting too carried away, I guess. Surprised we haven’t seen more polling here.
@mark. Agree with you there. The Reachtel polls while probably giving AN idea seem to have some questionable methodology to them.
Have the electors of Ashgrove been on the same planet for the last 3 years?
NOt one of you have had a total recall in regard to her inept handling of her Portfolio, ask the folks on Stradbroke Island what they think of her, where was Kate jones in the flood debacle with the dam situation, mmm conveniently in the shadows during the inquiry, it’s great to be green, how about walking the walk? She’s so ashamed of Labor she doesn’t mention it on her corflutes and what about the faded red teeshirts? Keep Kate, like hell, keep KATE OUT.
Seen on Mumble: our good friend “DB” the Liberal insider suggests both the LNP and ALP believe Newman will win comfortably.
I’m sure it won’t stop Labor having a fun couple of days, though.
I grew up in Ashgrove and was very proud as a young man handing out HTV DLP in a very ALP seat. It was only at my mothers funeral that so many attending admitted to voting for the DLP. Afterwards we spoke of the campaign and many of the older people there said for years we have supported the LIberals but the loyalty has gone. During the Federal election they felt guilty because they were helped by Kate Jones on postal and pre-polls and this campaign is no different.
The elderly in Ashgrove are diminishing with a large portion of high income voters moving in.
The fact is though that Kate Jones would have already secured about 4-5% of the vote while Campbell Newman is having to contest with travelling the state.
If former older DLP voters felt guilty about placing their vote with the LIberals how serious are the LNP about winning this seat. Yes Kate is running a very strong campaign on the elderly and the young and yes she does have a pink coreflute with “keep Kate there” ( a great old DLP slogan…. Keep Gair there:) The fact is, this is going to be a real fight. This seat extends out to mitchelton (another area with elderly or young) and none know of the horrors this woman has bestoyed on the state. She is hopeless on the big picture issues but the hatred felt in the regions where her policies have hurt are not getting through in her local seat.
I think Kate is a very nice person but there it stops. She is most certainly an under-performer in politics and is counting on her electorate to support the local girl made good. Hardly any way to vote … but it happens, a lot.
Campbell Newman is a very high achiever in the political arena and is also a good person. He doesn’t live in Ashgrove and so is not their local candidate.
It will therefore be heavily stacked against Newman because the electorate, as fickle as it is (everywhere) will vote for a female/male; local/non local; particular party regardless; experience or non experience. Rarely do we vote on policy these days, and that’s a crying shame. Maybe the lack of decent policies can be blamed for that.
In my opinion, for what it’s worth is that Jones will win Ashgrove on Green preferences and therefore beat the higher scoring primary votes of Newman. Neither will get better than the 50% of primary votes required to claim an outright victory. Elsewhere, Katter will grab maybe 2 seats up north but the LNP will take government with enough seats to govern comfortably in its own right.
Following the admission by Anna Bligh, and consequently the”Backflip” that she doesn’t have any evidence to go to the CMC with in regard to Campbell, it seems timely that the electors of Ashgove now get on and look at the policies and performance of the candidates.
It is a sad reflection on a community who would go to the polls and re elect a poor performer such as Kate Jones because her opponent has had a smear campaign of inuendo and hearsay given more media and airplay than the whole campaign.
I guess desperate people do desperate things.
@Rosemary. Unfortunately the ALP will just keep throwing the lies Mr Newman’s way. Even today it has come out that one of the supposed concerned locals groups in Ashgrove has various Union Executives and ALP members all present at their meeting but the head of the group claims that everyone involved is just a concerned local and has no connection with any party.
If I was Campbell Newman or one of his family members I would be so suing the pants off the ALP. On a side note I also read that Kate Jones’ husband gets about $450 000 per year off the government payroll; a nice sum of money there! But it’s ok, it isn’t cronyism or anything like that but if Mr Newman did it it would be referred to the CMC.
There may be something in these allegations given the CMC is now assessing looking into the BCC’s approval of the Woolloongabba development.
Is it just a coincidence that the developer concerned made five $10,000 donations under five company names to Campell Newman’s Forward Brisbane Leadership fund. This was all on Campbell Newman’s watch. But don’t you worry about that.
It harks back to the days of Premier Joh and the favours done for National Party mates.
In the words of the philosopher George Santayama, ” “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”.
Of course the CMC is looking into it. When allegations are made they look into them to check if they are for real or not. Anna Bligh admitted she had nothing more than idle gossip.
Of course there is a lot of mud throwing going on. Perhaps Anna Bligh should be forwarded to the CMC over this allegation here (much like Mr Newman was for a very similar allegation):
http://shameonu.com.au/index.php?option=com_easyblog&view=entry&id=64&Itemid=38
Campbell Newman has shown the utmost courage during this campaign, a lesser person would have buckled under the strain, which shows he is capable of the job at hand, we should thank the Labor party for showing him in this light,they have brought out his true mettle, unfortunately not so themselves,who are now looking a little like the “rooster to feather duster” in this campaign.
Predicition:
The dirt campaign seems to have failed so LNP gain.
I don’t believe this will be as close as some may think. When it comes time to put the ’1′ in the box on voting day, many will reconsider and realise that a vote for ‘Kate’ is an absolute waste of time.
My prediction – LNP gain and it won’t be so tight.
Go Campbell, BRING IT HOME!
Latest reachtel poll out makes the one previous seem like a bit of an anomaly as Newman is back to 49% primary again. Predicted 2pp is now 54-46 to Newman.
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/campbell-newman-retakes-lead-in-ashgrove
Yeah if you accept that the last ReachTel was a rogue, then it’s actually been pretty consistent for months. Newman polling around 49-50 primary with Jones bobbing around the low 40s.
As badly as I want her to win, Kate Jones really needs to be getting 45% on her Primary vote.
But even if she loses, if she can force Newman to preferences that will be a tremendous result.
It might create a few headaches for the LNP at future elections if they know that Newman couldn’t crack a majority of the primary vote in his own seat at a high water mark election for the LNP.
Galaxy also out today, 55-45 to Newman.
Most electors are now over it, waiting to put Anna Bligh out of her misery.
Elect Jones to sit wallowing on the back bench in opposition for possibly 10 years, or elect the new Premier.
This must be taken into consideration for the overall benefit of the seat of Ashgrove.