Kogarah – NSW 2019

ALP 6.9%

Incumbent MP
Chris Minns, since 2015.

Geography
Southern Sydney. Kogarah includes parts of Kogarah, Rockdale and Hurstville local government areas, including the suburbs of Allawah, Carrs Park, Carlton, Kogarah, Bexley, Hurstville, Kingsgrove and Beverly Hills.

History
The electoral district of Kogarah has existed continuously since 1930. The seat was marginal in the first half of the twentieth century but has been held by the ALP since 1953.

The seat was first won by the ALP’s Mark Gosling in 1930. He had held one of the seats in the St George district from 1920 to 1927 and then Oatley from 1927 to 1930. He lost Kogarah after one term in 1932.

The United Australia Party’s James Ross held the seat from 1932 to 1941, when he lost to the Victoria’s Cross recipient William Currey, running for the ALP. Currey held the seat until his death in 1948.

The 1948 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Douglas Cross. Cross lost Kogarah in 1953, but he won the neighbouring seat of Georges River in 1956, holding it until his death in 1970.

Bill Crabtree held Kogarah for the ALP from 1953 to 1983. He served as a minister in the Wran Labor government from 1976 to 1981.

Kogarah was won in 1983 by Brian Langton. He became a minister when the ALP won power in 1995. In 1998, he was forced to resign as a minister after a scandal involving misuse of air travel expenses. He retired from Kogarah in 1999.

Kogarah was won in 1999 by Cherie Burton. She served as a minister from 2005 to 2007. Following the 2007 election she returned to the backbench.

Candidates

Assessment
Kogarah is a reasonably safe Labor seat.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Chris Minns Labor 21,08445.4-2.0
Nick Aroney Liberal 15,86634.2-3.9
Annie TangUnity3,6477.9+7.9
Brent Heber Greens 3,0156.5-2.3
Sonny SusiloChristian Democrats1,6383.5-2.2
David LinNo Land Tax1,1732.5+2.5
Informal2,2254.6

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Chris Minns Labor 23,05856.9+1.5
Nick Aroney Liberal 17,49243.1-1.5

Booth breakdown

Booths in Kogarah have been split into three parts: north-east, north-west and south.

Labor won a majority in all three areas, ranging from 53.6% in the north-west to 60.8% in the north-east.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North-East60.813,66529.4
North-West53.610,49622.6
South54.07,72316.6
Other votes55.68,67218.7
Pre-poll58.95,86712.6

Two-party-preferred votes in Kogarah at the 2015 NSW state election

Become a Patron!

28 COMMENTS

  1. The naming of seats in the seats in the St George area has all become a bit odd over the years. Rockdale should be named Kogarah and Kogarah be named Hurstville.

  2. The suburb of Kogarah is split roughly in half by the electoral boundaries, so really it’s a poor choice of name for either district. But if one has to carry the name this district is probably the better option as it contains the train station and the medical precinct.

  3. Wonder if the Chinese immigrants comments from Daley could put a seat like this with a high Asian population at risk

  4. if the liberals did not win this in 2011 they are never going to…; also the boundary changes shifted 3% the more liberal suburbs into Oatley

  5. Daniel/Mick – not sounding too confident boys. Tell me how do you explain Daley’s comments to the 28% Chinese/Australian population in this seat? Let me know the narrative!! I suspect the best you’ve got is that I didn’t know you were filming at the time. I bet he is absolutely thrilled with Trish Doyle/Adam Searle!

  6. no that is not my tip for Oatley it is one of many seat by seat competitive contests….Lucy can win. but my point is Kogarah is more pro labour with the boundary change. The snippet of Daley’s speech came from the liberal’s dirt draw sided by the Murdoch press. Does any one really think Daley is racist? the issues are stadiums, health and education spending, transport incompetent ppps ….. eg the northern beaches hospital. the pie in the sky new Bankstown hospital and the various reasons rural areas are very disatisfied with the coalition

  7. Minns retains this, probably with a trimmed margin after Daley’s own goal. Oatley certainly out of reach now.

  8. Labor hold, and will be on these boundaries – the better Liberal areas in the St. George region are in Oatley, and to a lesser extent Rockdale.

  9. Would be interesting to find out whether or not the Libs would have won this seat on the old boundaries. As I recall, the old Kogarah had some much stronger Liberal areas closer to the river, some of which were also strong Chinese booths too.

  10. Would be interesting to find out whether or not the Libs would have won this seat on the old boundaries. As I recall, the old Kogarah had some much stronger Liberal areas closer to the river, some of which were also strong Chinese booths too.

  11. The ALP send in the reinforcements in this seat late in the week. This seat will continue to move away from the AlP like the seats around them. Would not be surprised if Minns looks for a safer seats at the next election

  12. A bit convenient for Chris Minns to blame the Daley comments for his woeful result. Contrast this result with Strathfield, Ryde, Auburn, Epping, Willoughby etc all with huge Chinese populations and all of which recorded swings to the ALP. Minns has been doubly lucky with Daley’s comments not only giving him a chance to challenge for the leadership but also allowing him to cover up his apparent lack of local support. It must be remembered that this is a sophomore surge seat…Minns debut was in 2015 when he inherited it from the very popular Cherie Burton and the swing to the ALP was accordingly only 1.5% against a state average of 10%. Over two elections with a statewide swing in favour of the ALP of 12%, Minns has managed to go into reverse to the tune of 2%. Has any other sitting ALP member come anywhere near this effort? Somehow I doubt it. Seems like this is just the sort of vote-magnet NSW Labor needs.

  13. Peterjk23
    Mate, just about some of the things you have put forward are factually incorrect. Suggest you take another look
    cheers WD

  14. Peterjk23
    Ben is holding back a post i put up in Reid, on this subject. MY labor insider mate, hates Minns, along with other proven”illustrious” company!!. However there was also a re-distribution which was un-helpful. Hope that helps thus far

  15. As more and more high rise apartments appears in suburbs like Kogarah and Hurstville and the more the older generation of migrants move out of these area. The demographic of this area will continue to shift toward the conservatives. Mimms was saved by the re-distribution and last minute sand bagging from the ALP this time, but as more and more high rise goes up in Kogarah and Hurstville (higher density) Kogarah is likely to drift East (toward Kogarah and Hurstville) and should lose the more ALP leaning area of the seat. Alternatively if the seat move to cover the rest of Kogarah (which is somehow in Rockdale). It will also drift toward the conservatives.

    I do not think the shift in vote has anything to do with Minns, it has to do with how the suburbs Hurstville and Kogarah has changed over the last 8 years. Looking at the constructions happening in the area at the moment, I would not be surprised if Minns is looking for another seats for the next election.

  16. WD and Dovif, The redistribution was before the 2015 election and was already factored in to the swing figures I mentioned above. Based on the 2011 election, Kogarah on its current boundaries had an ALP margin of 5.4%. Minns increased it to only 6.9% on his debut in 2015, despite a statewide swing of 9.9% to the ALP. So the 2019 result is on top of a very mediocre result in 2015. In neighbouring Rockdale over the same two elections the ALP has turned a 3% Liberal margin into a 10% Labor one. Peakhurst is a poor comparison because Coure has been entrenching himself after narrowly ousting a very popular Labor incumbent in 2011.

  17. eterjk23
    Interesting. On election night Minns himself had a totally different story. Seeing as i’m inclined to believe you, that means Minns was “propagandising” himself. Type 3 fixations do this, or just lying like a Type 2. Sorry i should have had more faith in you from the get !!
    cheers WD

  18. Hi Dovif,

    I remain unconvinced that more high rise apartments = drift towards the conservatives. If you look at Strathfield and Rockdale in particular these are high-rise development hot spots and these seats have held solidly for Labor.

  19. there will be a boundary change before the 2023 election… I would suggest the 3% boundary change between Oatley and Kogarah be Reversed

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here