|Term expires 2011||Term expires 2014|
|Kim Carr (ALP)|| Jacinta Collins (ALP)|
|Stephen Conroy (ALP)|| David Feeney (ALP)|
|Steven Fielding (FF)||Mitch Fifield(LIB)|
|Julian McGauran (LIB)*|| Helen Kroger (LIB)|
|Michael Ronaldson (LIB)||Gavin Marshall (ALP)|
| Judith Troeth (LIB)||Scott Ryan (LIB)|
*McGauran was previously a Nationals senator, and was re-elected on a joint Coalition ticket as a National in 2004. McGauran defected to the Liberals in 2006.
The 1951 election, which was the first to result in a Senate entirely elected by proportional representation, gave an overall result of 5 ALP senators, 4 Liberal senators and one Country Party senator. The 1953 election saw the ALP gain a seat off the Liberals, giving them a 6-4 majority. This was the only time the ALP, or any party, won a majority of Victoria’s Senate delegation under PR.
The 1955 election saw the party that became the Democratic Labor Party win a seat off the ALP. At the 1961 election, both the DLP and the ALP lost a Senate seat, with the Liberals winning two, giving them five seats, with three ALP and one each for the DLP and Country Party. In 1964, the DLP regained their single Senate seat from the Liberal Party. In 1967, the DLP gained a second seat off the Country Party, who were left with no Victorian senators. The 1970 election saw the Country Party regain their seat, off the ALP. The ALP was reduced to three seats, with four Liberals and two DLP senators.
The 1974 double dissolution saw the ALP regain ground, with both DLP senators being defeated, and the ALP gaining two seats, bringing their contingent to five out of ten senators. The 1975 double dissolution reduced the ALP to four seats, with the National Country Party gaining a second seat.
The 1977 election saw former Liberal minister Don Chipp elected to the Senate for the newly-formed Australian Democrats. The National Country Party lost one of its senators to the Democrats. The 1980 election saw the NCP lose its other seat to the Democrats. In the 1983 double dissolution, the ALP gained a fifth seat at the expense of the second Democrats senator.
At the 1984 election, an increase in Senators saw the Liberals and Democrats each gain an extra seat. The Democrats again lost their second Victorian senator at the 1987 double dissolution to Nationals candidate Julian McGauran. The 1990 election saw McGauran defeated, and the Democrats again regain their second seat.
The 1993 election saw the Democrats lose a seat yet again to the Nationals. This produced a result of five each for the ALP and Liberals, and one each for the Nationals and Democrats. This status quo was maintained until the 2004 election, when the ALP lost one of its five senate seats to Family First’s Steven Fielding. The 2007 election saw the ALP regain a fifth seat at the expense of the Democrats, who lost their last Victorian senator.
|Democratic Labor Party||32,930||1.03||-0.91||0.0724|
The ALP and the Liberal Party each won two seats on primary votes. After the distribution of most candidates’ preferences, the race was reduced to the third Labor candidate, David Feeney, the third Liberal candidate, Scott Ryan, the Greens candidate, Richard di Natale, and the Family First candidate, Gary Plumridge.
At this point the candidates had the following number of votes:
- Feeney – 0.9857 quotas
- di Natale – 0.9313
- Ryan – 0.7766
- Plumridge – 0.3053
Plumridge was excluded, and produced this final result:
- Ryan – 1.0487
- Feeney – 1.0162
- di Natale – 0.9336
The ALP ticket consists of Kim Carr, Stephen Conroy and Antony Thow. I’m not certain who is #1 or #2, but Thow is clearly #3 on the ticket.
The Liberal Party has preselected Michael Ronaldson to run in the first position and former National Julian McGauran to run in the third position. The Nationals have preselected Bridget McKenzie to run in the second position, which was held by McGauran in the 2004 election.
The Greens have preselected 2007 candidate Richard di Natale to run again. It’s safe to assume Steven Fielding will run again at the head of the Family First ticket.
The Socialist Alliance has preselected Margarita Windisch. The Democrats are running Roger Howe, and the Democratic Labor Party is running John Madigan.
If this result were to change, the likeliest scenario would see the Greens win a seat off one of the major parties. In this scenario, the result would be achieved by either ALP+Greens reaching four quotas or Liberal+Greens reaching four quotas. In 2007, these groupings had the following result:
- Liberal + Greens – 3.9823 quotas
- ALP + Greens – 3.9498 quotas
In this scenario, a swing of 0.72% from the Liberals to the ALP would give the Greens a seat at the expense of the Liberal Party, while a swing of only 0.26% would give the Greens a seat at the expense of the ALP. When you examine it this way, you see the Greens were extremely unlucky to miss out in 2007, as there was less than a 1% window in which the ALP and Coalition votes would be exactly right to give them three seats each.
On top of that, assuming the same preferences from minor parties, a 0.95% swing to the Greens on primary votes or on preferences from minor parties would give them the seat without any need to rely on major party preferences.
You would have to give Steven Fielding no chance of winning a seat in a half-senate election without major party preferences and a whole lot of luck. Family First managed to reach 0.57 double dissolution quotas in 2007, which could put them in with a shot, particularly if Fielding can gain a swing towards him and a solid flow of preferences from other microparties.