LIB 1.2%
Incumbent MP
Michael Johnson, since 2001. Johnson is now an independent after recently being expelled from the LNP.
Geography
Ryan covers the western suburbs of Brisbane. The seat covers the north side of the Brisbane river from Auchenflower through Toowong, Indooroopilly, Chapel Hill and Kenmore. It also covers suburbs further north including The Gap and Ferny Grove.
Redistribution
The recent redistribution saw Ryan lose all of its territory south of the river, including Jindalee, Westlake, Mount Ommaney, Riverhills and Sumner. These areas were transferred to Oxley. In exchange Ryan gained Ferny Grove, Mitchelton, Enoggera, St Johns Wood and Bardon from Brisbane. The margin for the seat was cut from 3.8% to 1.2%.
History
Ryan was first created in 1949 and has been only held by four people. The seat was first won by Nigel Drury in 1949 for the Liberal Party. Drury held the seat until 1975, mainly serving as a backbencher. He was succeeded by John Moore in 1975. Moore served as a minister in Malcolm Fraser’s final term and served in the shadow cabinet during the Hawke/Keating governments.
Moore served as Minister for Industry, Science and Tourism in John Howard’s first government and become Minister for Defence after the 1998 election. He lost the portfolio in a reshuffle in December 2000 and proceeded to resign from Parliament early in 2001.
A swing of 9.7% gave the normally safe Liberal seat to Labor candidate Leonie Short by 255 votes. Liberal candidate Michael Johnson won back the seat at the 2001 general election. Johnson was reelected in 2004 and 2007. A 6.6% swing to the ALP in 2007 made the seat marginal, and the ensuing redistribution cut the margin further.
Candidates
- Steven Miles (Labor)
- Sandra Bayley (Greens)
- Allan Vincent (Family First)
- Jane Prentice (Liberal National)
- Michael Johnson (Independent) – Member for Ryan since 2001.
Political situation
Ryan is the only remaining notionally Liberal seat in the City of Brisbane. It has a long history of being held by the Liberals that doesn’t match its current margin. It seems quite likely such a seat could buck a trend towards the Government. You would have to think that sitting MP Michael Johnson has little chance of retaining the seat as an independent, but his presence in the race could be disruptive enough to allow the ALP to win the seat.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Johnson | LIB | 41,646 | 49.52 | -5.24 |
| Ross Daniels | ALP | 30,619 | 36.41 | +7.00 |
| Evan Jones | GRN | 7,933 | 9.43 | -0.33 |
| Charles Worringham | IND | 1,328 | 1.58 | +1.58 |
| James Page | DEM | 1,207 | 1.44 | -0.98 |
| Leisa Schimd | FF | 1,120 | 1.33 | -2.03 |
| Jock Mackenzie | LDP | 155 | 0.18 | +0.18 |
| Neville Solomon | CEC | 90 | 0.11 | -0.17 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Johnson | LIB | 45,258 | 53.82 | -6.60 |
| Ross Daniels | ALP | 38,840 | 46.18 | +6.60 |
Results do not take into consideration effects of the redistribution.
Booth breakdown
I have divided Ryan into four geographical areas:
- Enoggera – suburbs in the north-eastern corner of the seat, including Ferny Grove, Keperra and Mitchelton.
- The Gap – The Gap proper, as well as Ashgrove, Bardon, Rainworth and Milton booths.
- Indooroopilly – suburbs near the Brisbane river, including Kenmore, Indooroopilly and Toowong.
- West – Booths in the rest of the electorate, including Pullenvale, Moggill and Karana Downs.
Those booths along the river are almost entirely Liberal-voting areas, while a majority of booths away from the river were won by the ALP, with the exception of four booths won by slim margins by the Liberal Party.
Polling booths in Ryan. Enoggera in blue, The Gap in red, Indooroopilly in orange, West in green.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2CP % | Total votes | % of ordinary votes |
| Indooroopilly | 10.54 | 53.94 | 31,863 | 44.06 |
| The Gap | 10.87 | 48.82 | 15,669 | 21.67 |
| Enoggera | 7.23 | 41.34 | 13,373 | 18.49 |
| West | 8.51 | 56.35 | 11,410 | 15.78 |
| Other votes | 10.52 | 53.97 | 17,227 |
Polling booths in Ryan, showing 2007 election results.
Ryan is a really interesting seat – there’s a heap of comments I could make about it.
The redistribution takes in areas with a more solid Labor base, but otherwise I think it is a seat where the Labor vote would have to be considered soft. I tend to think the Labor vote is at its maximum, but on the other hand, Johnson’s views on climate change in an electorate with one of the more progressive-leaning Liberal voter bases may boost Labor’s chances. It was certainly one of the key seats targeted by the Liberals’ anti-union class identity-based campaign in 2007, so with this election likely to be very different, there may be some room for Labor to gain ground. I would however not put money on a Labor win.
I’ve also commented previously that I think this may be the best seat for the Greens in Qld in the long term, because of the ability to become the alternative to the Liberals in the more solid Liberal areas where there’s no real Labor support, the potential growing appeal to the progressive-leaning ‘doctor’s wives’ vote, and the fact that a lot of the Labor vote would seem to have similar characteristics to the soft ‘inner city’-type Labor voters that the Greens do well with in Sydney and Melbourne. This would be particularly improved if future redistributions took in more of the inner-west suburbs around Milton and Paddington.
Had a quick look at some of the demographic rankings – very interesting. These are based on the former boundaries though: The UQ campus clearly has a significant impact on this seat, with it being ranked 2nd only behind Melbourne for proportion of persons aged 15-24 years and proportion of persons enrolled in tertiary education. It was also ranked first for proportion of dwellings with an internet connection, and in the top 5 for proportion of persons with university qualifications.
And for those who don’t recall the 2001 by-election, it took place around the time the Howard government was at its lowest ebb. It was around the time Howard’s dissatisfaction rating in Newspoll reached a record high 64%.
I’d have to agree with Nick on this one.
The Greens polled over 20% in the state seats of indooroopilly and Mt Cootha which both fall into Ryan.
The redistribution also brings in areas that will help the Government.
The is one seat the the coalition are worried about and will be one to watch. It is demographically a difficult seat to campaign in which should assist in incumbent but is definately one of the seats at risk in Queensland.
It will be interesting to see who the greens nominate and the other players in the field.
It’s Jindalee not Jindaree.
Apparently Johnson hasn’t been endorsed yet.
There are rumours that Johnson will run as an independent and that if he is disendorsed certainly will.
Well I doubt he has much personal cred, so he’ll you’d think he’d get definitely get less than 10% if he did that. Would presumably split the Lib vote and create enough preference leakage for Labor to win the seat though.
I think there is more discontent then we’ve seen for years in the LNP.
Lets face it,…..Its two parties merging into one. The Qld libs only had a handfull of seats yet they still managed to about 3 factions.
This seat is one that might get away if they’re not carefull.
Reports Steven Miles is the likely Labor candidate.
Steve Miles has reportedly won the ALP preselection.
Steven is a fantastic candidate and is well supported in the branches after picking up 66% of the vote yesterday.
Pressure will be on the Libs to sort out their mess now.
It looks like Dr Sandra Bayley will be the Greens candidate for this seat: http://bit.ly/cFy79X
She’s a local GP, co-founder of St Johns Wood Sustainability Group, and very active on social justice and climate change issues in the community. I’m always heartened when I see local community organisers given a run by the Greens.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/tony-abbott-backs-embattled-mp-michael-johnson/story-e6freoof-1225860793641
Abbott gives Johnson his endorsement. Stupid move, surely.
“Abbott gives Johnson his endorsement. Stupid move, surely.”
I think by now we can call it a trend.
The interesting part is Mal Brough being back in Town and being spotted everywhere.
His fight to retain the liberal name and the fact that he’s been spotted with former power broker Santo Santoro(who has been spotted dining with everyone who is everyone in the liberals) would place some doubt on the LNP model as a Whole.
<a href=http://publicpolity.wordpress.com/2009/07/10/labor-and-labour-in-queensland<public Policy
<a href=http://www.dlp.org.au/index.php?page=queensland-not-for-sale<
Not for Sale
If it wasnt for the fact that the ALP name in Queensland is on the nose (over asset sales)they may have been looking at some severe losses.
Brisbane City Councillor Jane Prentice is tipped as the front-runner to replace Michael Johnson if he is forced out. Seb Monsour, brother-in-law of Lord Mayor Campbell Newman, is mentioned as another contender.
Who writes these headlines? ‘Woman set to replace Johnson’, and what was the one about the Wright ALP preselection, ‘Labor to take action on woman’, or something similar? Why isn’t the headline ‘Prentice set to replace man’?
This could get interesting now that Michael Johnson has been expelled from the LNP and is threatening to run as an independent
So Johnson has been expelled by the LNP. The ABC have a helpful timeline of his political career.
I take it that his branch is in the part of the seat that’s shifted into Oxley, so he should go on a number of accounts.
Even with recent polls looking better for the Libs, I reckon they’ve thrown away both Dickson and Ryan. If they lose Bowman I’m pretty sure that shuts them out of Brisbane.
Senator Russell Trood, who’s been given the unwinnable 4th spot on the LNP ticket, is reportedly considering nominating the preselection here.
He may as well. He certainly won’t be getting in on the Senate ticket.
I think that the Greens pose a real threat to the Libs in this electorate but probably not a big enough one for them to be turfed out. As has already been pointed out, there are a lot of young voters in this electorate, but enough of them? Not sure about that. If Johnson runs as an Independent he’ll give his preferences to the LNP. This should get them over the line.
The Greens got 9%. The Libs got 49%. Where’s the threat?
The Greens candidate is Sandra Bayley. The threat to the Libs is a > 1% swing to the Greens that doesn’t translate to prefs flow to them. They have a job ahead of them, as do Labor, judging from the latest Newspoll.
Still 9% is enough in a certain to be 3 way contest.
Johnson the LNP and the ALP. Her preferences will not doubt have a big say in the outcome.
Have the LNP nominated a candidate yet ?
We have a candidate on standby.
Jane Prentice has won the LNP preselection.
Unfortunately despite the LNP promoting their candidate Jane Prentice as the star candidate and well liked it now seems they are in a tricky situation with the Prentice family having been caught out with tax avoidance to the sum of over 1 million dollars! Was on page 5 of today’s Sunday Mail.
Surely the HTV cards are available by now? Where are the preference flows?
I think I’ll number the boxes in descending order. So 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. Despite the controversy surrounding Michael Johnson, I still like him more than the woman they’ve nominated for the LNP. But I fear Johnson and Prentice will split the Liberal/conservative vote and we’ll end up with a Labor member. That would suck. Hopefully Johnson and Prentice have preferenced each other ahead of the other candidates so that no matter who you vote for out of those two your vote will end up going to one of them.
My prediction: LNP retain, slight swing to them.
Well, the Greens have outpolled Labor in the Senate vote here (came close in Brisbane and Griffith too).