LIB 0.5%
Incumbent MP
Jason Wood, since 2004.
Geography
La Trobe covers the south eastern fringe of Melbourne and parts of the Dandenong Ranges. Major centres include Belgrave, Boronia, Berwick, Narre Warren and Ferntree Gully.
History
La Trobe was first created after the Second World War when the House of Representatives was expanded at the 1949 election. The seat was first won by Richard Casey, who had previously been an MP and minister before resigning from Parliament in 1940 to serve in a variety of diplomatic roles during the war.
Casey served as a minister for eleven years before resigning in 1960. John Jess won the seat for the Liberal Party in a by-election that year and held the seat until his defeat in 1972, when Whitlam’s national victory swept Tony Lamb into La Trobe. He lost the seat in 1975 and later returned to Parliament serving in the seat of Streeton from 1984 to 1990.
Marshall Baillieu won the seat for the Liberals in 1975 and held it until 1980. That year he was defeated by Peter Milton who held it until 1990 for the ALP. Bob Charles defeated Milton in 1990 and held the seat until 2004, during which he served on the shadow ministry from 1994 to 1996.
Charles retired in 2004 and he was succeeded by Jason Wood. Wood has held the seat ever since.
Candidates
- Martin Leahy (Sex Party)
- Jason Wood (Liberal) – Member for La Trobe since 2004.
- David Barrow (Family First)
- Laura Smyth (Labor)
- Jim Reiher (Greens)
- Shem Bennett (Liberal Democrats)
Political situation
No information.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jason Wood | LIB | 39,636 | 46.48 | -4.74 |
| Rodney Cocks | ALP | 34,448 | 40.38 | +6.62 |
| Bree Taylor | GRN | 7,539 | 8.84 | -0.57 |
| Jim Zubic | FF | 2,423 | 2.84 | +0.49 |
| Craig Beale | DEM | 1,012 | 1.19 | -0.30 |
| Kurt Beilharz | CEC | 140 | 0.16 | -0.01 |
| Surome Singh | LDP | 85 | 0.10 | +0.10 |
| CDP | 0 | 0.00 | -0.59 | |
| OTH | 0 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jason Wood | LIB | 43,077 | 50.51 | -5.32 |
| Rodney Cocks | ALP | 42,206 | 49.49 | -5.32 |
Booth breakdown
I have divided the booths into four areas. Southern booths around Berwick and Narre Warren have been grouped together. I have also grouped together those booths near Boronia or Belgrave, and then those booths in the eastern part of the seat are included under ‘Dandenongs’.
Polling booths in La Trobe. South in blue, Dandenongs in yellow, Belgrave in green and Boronia in red.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 4.05 | 56.72 | 24,492 | 28.72 |
| Boronia | 8.23 | 45.20 | 20,314 | 23.82 |
| Belgrave | 18.34 | 42.58 | 12,678 | 14.87 |
| Dandenongs | 10.08 | 50.18 | 8,974 | 10.52 |
| Other votes | 8.74 | 53.67 | 18,825 | 22.07 |
Polling booths in La Trobe.
Polling booths in La Trobe, around Narre Warren and Berwick.
Polling booths in La Trobe, particularly around Boronia and Belgrave.
Labor’s 2007 campaign in La Trobe had a few problems. Cocks wasn’t their original candidate, and this story about a letter to voters in which it was claimed he was a father, when he in fact had no children, was one of my favourite stories of the election:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/20/2096322.htm
That’s a classic.
I am only just looking at this as I was in Belgrave on the weekend. That letter was brilliant. Perhaps this is the most winnable seat for the ALP, even more so than McEwen. Personally, I find it amazing that the libs do so poorly in the Belgrave, Selby and Emerald booths. The region was “beautiful and leafy” as my mother would say – but when I looked this map up the votes were the complete opposite of what I was expecting.
I think it’s fair to say that Vic Labor will be targeting McEwan and La Trobe very very heavily. I’m not confident that the Libs can lose anything else in Vic so I’m expecting all of Labor’s money to be sent to these two seats and a couple they picked up last time (Deakin and Corgangamite). Dunkley and Casey are probably more conservative than the margin suggests, so I’m ruling them out. Amazing that, really, of the 30 something seats in Victoria that 4 (5 if you include Melbourne) are truly in play. The good people of the Dandenongs can expect a lot of advertising heading their way shortly.
I agree with everything there Hamish – and I think Melbourne is definitely in play as much as the other 4
Hi Ben,
The Greens are running Jim Reiher in La Trobe.
Jim was lead upper house candidate for South Eastern Metropolitan in 2006 and has previously also been on the Vic Senate ticket.
Cheers
Good comment by hamish,
fair to say ALP will be expecting the swing here…looks like an ALP pickup to me..
My prediction: Labor gain, 2-3% swing.