Flynn – Election 2010

ALP 2.2%

Incumbent MP
Chris Trevor, since 2007.

Geography
Central Queensland. Flynn covers Gladstone and comes close to covering the regional centres of Bundaberg and Rockhampton. It also covers the inland local government areas of Banana, Central Highlands and North Burnett, as well as parts of South Burnett.

Redistribution
Flynn previously stretched much further inland, as far as Winton. Areas to the west of the current seat including Winton, Longreach, Barcaldine and Tambo were transferred into Maranoa. Wandoan and Guluguba were also transferred into Maranoa. Flynn gained parts of Rockhampton council area south of the actual city of Rockhampton from Capricornia and gained the remainder of North Burnett from Hinkler. This increased the Labor margin from 0.16% to 2.2%.

History
Flynn was created for the 2007 election as a notionally National seat, taking parts of Maranoa, Capricornia and Hinkler. Capricornia has almost always been held by the ALP in recent decades, although the Nationals gained it for one term after both the 1975 and 1996 landslides. Maranoa has been held by the Nationals since the Second World War, while Hinkler’s shorter history has been dominated by the Nationals, except for two terms of the ALP holding the seat.

The 2007 redistribution saw Flynn created with a 7.7% margin for the Nationals, but a massive swing to the ALP saw the seat won by Chris Trevor by a slim margin.

Candidates

Political situation
This seat has become stronger for the ALP and less rural in its make-up with the removal of truly inland areas and expansion of territory near Bundaberg and Rockhampton. It’s unlikely that there is much more room for this seat to swing to the ALP, but if there is a swing towards the Opposition this seat is likely to fall.

2007 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Chris TrevorALP35,89244.76+9.18
Glenn ChurchillNAT26,90733.56-13.34
Jason RoseLIB11,85014.78+12.32
Matthew DrysdaleFF
1,6622.07-2.39
Marella PettinatoGRN1,5771.97-0.65
Duncan ScottIND8071.01+1.01
Phillip CostelloIND7610.95+0.95
Julie NobleDEM5350.67-0.47
Jarrah JobLDP1960.24+0.24

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Chris TrevorALP40,22050.16+7.88
Glenn ChurchillNAT39,96749.84-7.88

Booth breakdown
Flynn is covered by eight local government areas. I have combined Central Highlands with Woorabinda, an indigenous council area which covers a number of non-contiguous areas within the Central Highlands and on the edge of the council area. I have also combined booths in South Burnett and North Burnett council areas.

Gladstone clearly stands out as the largest part of the seat, with almost 40% of ordinary votes cast there. The ALP won a large margin in Gladstone. The Coalition won majorities in Central Highlands, Banana, Bundaberg, Burnett and amongst other votes (due to a massive majority amongst postal votes, as the ALP won a majority of absentee and prepoll votes). The ALP also won a large majority in Rockhampton council area. Note that ‘Rockhampton’ and ‘Bundaberg’ refer to the local government areas, not the towns, as neither town is contained within Flynn.

Polling booths in Flynn. Burnett in orange, Bundaberg in green, Gladstone in purple, Rockhampton in red, Banana in blue, Central Highlands in yellow.
Voter groupALP 2CP %Total votes% of ordinary votes
Gladstone62.9024,40739.90
Central Highlands49.3910,40817.02
Rockhampton63.346,95511.37
Banana45.066,69110.94
Bundaberg48.786,45510.55
Burnett36.486,24710.21
Other votes44.1720,070
Polling booths in Flynn, showing results of the 2007 election.
Polling booths in Flynn around Gladstone and Biloela, showing results of the 2007 election.
Polling booths in Flynn around Gladstone, showing results of the 2007 election.
Polling booths in Flynn around Bundaberg, showing results of the 2007 election.
Polling booths in Flynn around Blackwater and Emerald, showing results of the 2007 election.

17 COMMENTS

  1. I think you’ll find that of all the Federal seats, the Greens lowest vote was in Flynn. So there’s lots of room for improvement!

  2. if the Nats pick up this and Dawson and the Libs lose some of their urban margins the Nats would end up with more weight in the Coalition. The Nats, like trade union affiliation to the ALP, may be a political relic but are surprisingly persistent.

  3. But on the other hand, the Nats are in serious danger of losing Hinkler, Calare and Cowper, even if the polls suggest the Coalition will do better in non-metro areas.

  4. But on the other hand they’re a good chance of picking up O’Connor and possibly Durack, which from memory would be the first Nationals seats in WA since the 70s

  5. I would favour the nationals in all contests Calare, Hinkler and Cowper (in that order). Regional Queensland is moving against the ALP, Calare has a big enough margin with Forbes and Parkes added in, Cowper could be tougher though. I think Flynn would have been very winnable – massive Rio Tinto Alumina and power assets in Gladstone, very sensitive to the ETS but this Burke thing has probably cut that now and makes the nationals want to focus on holding Hinkler and regaining Dawson

  6. Forgot to add, O’Conner and Durack now split the Nationals strong agricultural vote at a state level between the two electorates. Before it was all housed in the old O’Conner, so will be tough for them this time despite Brendan Grylls popularity. Perhaps the new O’Conner is slightly more favourable for them than Durack which houses Geraldton and the Kimberley

  7. Down here it seems the Nats are putting their main efforts into retaining Cowper and staving off the Liberals in Richmond, don’t seem to be doing too much to try to regain Page.

  8. “Once more into the breach, dear friends,” cries Chris Trevor. Well, kind of.

    This will be one of the seats that they’ll talk about over and over on election night. Will Chris defy the odds and keep the seat? I reckon so!

  9. Nice by Trevor – both for giving it to the ALP powerbrokers for ousting Rudd, and then staying on to fight for his electorate never the less. I personally think the sun belt is the most interesting stretch of seats in the entire country, starting from Flynn, up to Leichhardt, with Dawson and Herbert in between. All are up for grabs, genuine 50-50 contests, but perhaps the two mining sun belt seats (Flynn and Dawson) will be harder for the ALP to hold than Leichhardt, or to take Herbert.

  10. My prediction: LNP gain, 3-3.5% swing to them. And i’d better be right as I put money on it last week.

Comments are closed.