Scullin – Australia 2013

ALP 20.3%

Incumbent MP
Harry Jenkins, since 1986.

Map of Scullin's 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2013 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Scullin’s 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2013 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Geography
Outer northern suburbs of Melbourne. A majority of Scullin lies in southern parts of the City of Whittlesea, with other parts in Nillumbik Shire and the City of Banyule. Suburbs include Morang, Mill Park, Plenty, Thomastown, Lalor and Epping.

Redistribution
Scullin lost southern areas to Batman and Jagajaga, and expanded to the north and the east, expanding into territory previously part of McEwen. This reduced the ALP margin from 22.3% to 20.3%.

History
Scullin has existed since the 1969 election, and in that time has always been held by the Labor Party, and specifically by the Jenkins family.

The seat was first won in 1969 by Harry Jenkins Sr, who had previously been a state Labor MP since 1961. Jenkins was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives upon the election of the Hawke government in 1983. He retired from Parliament in late 1985.

The 1986 Scullin by-election was won by Harry Jenkins Jr, son of the former MP. The younger Jenkins served as Deputy Speaker from 1993 to 2007, and he was elected Speaker in early 2008 after the election of the Rudd government. Jenkins was re-elected in 2010, and stood down as Speaker in 2011.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Herry Jenkins is not running for re-election.

  • Peter Cooper (Palmer United Party)
  • Andrew Giles (Labor)
  • Katie Conlon (Family First)
  • Nathan Rolph (Sex Party)
  • Jag Chugha (Liberal)
  • Domenic Greco (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Rose Ljubicic (Greens)

Assessment
Scullin is a very safe Labor seat.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Harry JenkinsALP49,31062.12-1.20
Max WilliamsLIB19,14224.11-0.28
Gurm SekhonGRN6,7028.44+2.41
Ian StratovFF4,2265.32+0.59

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Harry JenkinsALP57,35572.25+1.40
Max WilliamsLIB22,02527.75-1.40
Polling places in Scullin at the 2010 federal election. Central in orange, East in blue, West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Scullin at the 2010 federal election. Central in orange, East in blue, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, central and west. Those polling places in Nillumbik Shire have been grouped as “east”, with those in Banyule and Whittlesea grouped as “west” and “central”.

The ALP won a majority in all three areas, varying from 56.8% in the east to 79.2% in the west. The Greens vote peaked at 13.1% in the east but dropped to 7.7% in the west.

Voter groupGRN %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of ordinary votes
West7.7479.2029,29742.45
Central8.1870.4926,15937.90
East13.1356.8013,56619.65
Other votes9.6668.7816,629
Two-party-preferred votes in Scullin at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Scullin at the 2010 federal election.

3 COMMENTS

  1. Solid outer suburban Labor seat, although funnily enough they’ve tacked on those semi-rural bits of Nillimbuk in the east.

    Without a strong Liberal contest, I’d expect those booths in the east to swing towards Labor this time, or at least not swing to the Liberals as heavily as the rest of the seat.

  2. Old postwar ethnics here keeping the Labor faith. Odd fact the 1972 Liberal candidate Graeme McEwen (relative of black Jack) here was I think Labor candidate in McEwen in 1998.

Comments are closed.