Petrie – Australia 2013

ALP 2.5%

Incumbent MP
Yvette D’Ath, since 2007.

Geography
Northern Brisbane. Petrie covers suburbs on the northern edge of the City of Brisbane, including Bracken Ridge and parts of Aspley. It also includes parts of Moreton Bay Regional Council, including Redcliffe, Scarborough and Deception Bay.

History
Petrie was created as part of the 1949 expansion of Parliament, and has always been a marginal seat, changing sides on many occasions. The seat has been a bellwether seat since 1987.

The seat was first won by Alan Hulme (Liberal) in 1949. Hulme served as a minister in the Menzies government from 1958 until 1961, when he was defeated by Reginald O’Brien (ALP), and Hulme won the seat back off O’Brien in 1963, before resuming a ministerial role.

O’Brien retired in 1972, and the seat was won by Marhsall Cooke. Cooke was not preselected by the Liberals in 1974, and he retired, with John Hodges winning the seat. Hodges held the seat for the Liberals until the 1983 election, when Dean Wells (ALP) won the seat. Hodges won it back off Wells in 1984, and Wells went on to serve as a minister in Labor state government from 1989 until 2004.

Hodges was finally defeated by the ALP’s Gary Johns in 1987. Johns went on to serve as a minister in the last term of the Keating government, losing his seat to Liberal Teresa Gambaro in 1996.

Gambaro held the seat for eleven years before losing to Yvette D’Ath in 2007.

D’Ath was re-elected in 2010 amidst a large anti-Labor swing in Queensland was a minimal 1.7% swing to the Liberal National Party.

Candidates

  • Elise Jennings (Rise Up Australia)
  • Thor Prohaska (Palmer United Party)
  • John Marshall (Greens)
  • Chris Thomson (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Tasman Spence (Family First)
  • Luke Howarth (Liberal National)
  • Geoff Cornell (Citizens Electoral Council)
  • Yvette D’Ath (Labor)

Assessment
D’Ath managed to survive with a minor swing in 2010, but she faces a very tight race in 2013. If there is a significant swing to the LNP in Queensland she will struggle to survive.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Yvette D’Ath ALP 32,677 42.79 -6.27
Dean Teasdale LNP 30,590 40.06 -2.76
Peter Jeremijenko GRN 6,949 9.10 +4.68
Sally Vincent FF 3,829 5.01 +3.14
Gabriel Buckley LDP 1,604 2.10 +1.79
Lawrence Addison DLP 715 0.94 +0.94

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Yvette D’Ath ALP 40,097 52.51 -1.70
Dean Teasdale LNP 36,267 47.49 +1.70

Polling booths in Petrie at the 2010 federal election. South in green, West in yellow, East in blue.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. Booths in the City of Brisbane have been grouped as South.

Those around Redcliffe have been grouped as East, and the remainder around North Lakes and at the northern end of the electorate have been grouped as West.

The ALP won a majority in all areas, varying from 50.7% in the south to 54.2% in the west.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
East 9.48 53.16 24,727 32.38
South 8.79 50.68 18,206 23.84
West 8.60 54.15 15,153 19.84
Other votes 9.32 52.10 18,278 23.94

Two-party-preferred votes in Petrie at the 2010 federal election.