Maribyrnong – Australia 2013

ALP 17.5%

Incumbent MP
Bill Shorten, since 2007.

Map of Maribyrnong's 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2013 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Maribyrnong’s 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2013 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Geography
Western Melbourne. Maribyrnong covers suburbs near the Maribyrnong River, including a majority of Moonee Valley council area, parts of Brimbank council area and a small part of Maribyrnong council area. Suburbs include Albion, Kealba, Essendon, Aberfeldie, Moonee Ponds, Niddrie and Keilor.

Redistribution
Maribyrnong lost Sunshine to Gellibrand and Keilor Park to Calwell, and gained St Albans and Kings Park from Gorton, Braybrook and Maribyrnong from Gellibrand, and Strathmore from Wills. This increased the Labor margin from 16.9% to 17.5%.

History
Maribyrnong was created for the 1906 election. Apart from a few early wins by conservative parties, the seat has almost always been won by the ALP.

The seat was first won in 1906 by Samuel Mauger, a member of the Anti-Socialist party. Mauger had previously held Melbourne Ports since Federation. He joined the Commonwealth Liberal Party on its formation in 1909, but lost Maribyrnong in 1910 to Labor candidate James Fenton.

Fenton held the seat continuously for the next two decades, and became Minister for Trade in the Scullin government in 1929. He served as Acting Prime Minister in 1930 when Scullin was travelling, and during this period he breached with the majority of the Labor caucus, and in 1931 he followed Joseph Lyons out of the ALP and joined the new United Australia Party.

Fenton won re-election in 1931 as a UAP candidate, and served as a minister for the first year of the Lyons government, but fell out with the government and served out his term as a backbencher, losing the seat in 1934 to the ALP’s Arthur Drakeford.

Drakeford served as Minister for the Air and Minister for Civil Aviation for the entirety of the Labor government from 1941 to 1949, and held his seat until his defeat at the 1955 election, when preferences from anti-communist Labor rebels (who later formed the Democratic Labor Party) delivered the seat to Liberal candidate Philip Stokes.

Stokes managed to hold on to the seat for the next decade as Maribyrnong saw a high vote for the DLP. Stokes held the seat until his defeat in 1969.

Maribyrnong was won in 1969 by the ALP’s Moss Cass. Cass served as Minister for the Environment in the Whitlam government, and retired from Parliament in 1983.

The seat was won in 1983 by Alan Griffiths. Griffiths joined the ministry after the 1990 election, and served as a minister until he was forced to resign from the ministry in 1994 due to allegations that he used his electoral office resources to bail out a failed sandwich shop venture. He retired from Parliament in 1996.

Maribyrnong was won in 1996 by Bob Sercombe, a former Victorian state MP. Sercombe had served as Deputy Leader of the ALP before attempting a leadership coup against John Brumby, Leader of the Opposition. Sercombe briefly served as a junior shadow minister after the 2004 election. He was challenged for preselection in 2005 by AWU National Secretary Bill Shorten, and he withdrew.

Shorten won the seat in 2007, and was re-elected in 2010. Shorten was appointed as a Parliamentary Secretary after the 2007 election. He was appointed as a minister in 2010 and joined cabinet as Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations in December 2011.

Candidates

Assessment
Maribyrnong is a safe Labor seat.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Bill ShortenALP42,40455.38-2.19
Conrad D’SouzaLIB22,26229.07-0.95
Tim LongGRN9,07711.85+5.03
Colin MoyleFF1,9882.60+0.02
Robert LivesayDEM8411.10-0.47

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Bill ShortenALP51,19366.86+1.54
Conrad D’SouzaLIB25,37933.14-1.54
Polling places in Maribyrnong at the 2010 federal election. Central in orange, East in blue, West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Maribyrnong at the 2010 federal election. Central in orange, East in blue, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, central and west. Polling places in Brimbank Council have been grouped as ‘west’. Polling places in Moonee Valley council area have been split into East and Central, with the small number of polling places in Maribyrnong council area are also grouped with Central.

The ALP won a majority in all three areas, varying from 58.9% in the east to 78.3% in the west. The Greens vote varied from 9.7% in the centre and the west to 14.1% in the east.

Voter groupGRN %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of ordinary votes
East14.0958.9422,48239.58
Central9.6867.1820,35435.83
West9.6778.2613,96624.59
Other votes12.4267.0523,221
Two-party-preferred votes in Maribyrnong at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Maribyrnong at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Maribyrnong at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Maribyrnong at the 2010 federal election.

17 COMMENTS

  1. The eastern part of this seat is some of the most affluent and Liberal voting parts of north-western Melbourne (Essendon, Strathmore, Moonee Ponds, Niddrie), which is why Maribyrnong is always a bit softer for Labor than other seats in the north-west. The overlapping state seat of Essendon is marginal, for example, and Niddrie is only “fairly safe”.

    From those 2PPs you can very clearly see the sharp demographic divide between these areas and rock-solid working class Brimbank in the west.

  2. MS, one public poll showed a 14% 2PP swing. My understanding is that internal polling shows a swing in the high single digits.

    I work in the west and am yet to see any evidence of Liberal campaigning.

  3. This not Moreton was really the seat that saved Menzies in 1961 exemplified labor’s post-split disaster in Victoria.

  4. Shorton is looking like a defeated man politically on TV and radio but will probably hold his seat unfortunately

  5. Why to newspaper think that they can try to creat news. There function is to report the news only. The front page of The Age on Saturday (22 Jun 13) was a disgrace and I put my ALP MP last too. Gillard will got to the polls as ALP leader and Abbott will as Liberal leader, end of story until 15 Sep 13 when there is likely to be some news the idiot editor of The Age can report. News Limited as just as bad. Both Fairfax and News Ltd need some quality reporters and they should sack the dead beats of which there are many.

  6. Safe Labor retain, the benchmark for the Liberals is turning some of those Essendon/Strathmore booths blue again.

  7. My 23 June comment about Gillard was wrong. I wonder who Bill Shortens ex wife will vote for?

  8. Labor/Shorten will win on a greatly reduced percentage. He is likely to be the leader of the opposition. There is an interesting sub battle amongst the minor parties which wont affect the result but Sex Party-v-Family First is worth keeping an eye on for note. Two young female candidates with totally opposing views.

  9. Ted Hatzakortzian is running a pretty visible campaign. He has huge billboards up along Pascoe Vale Road and around Highpoint shopping centre and stuff. It seems a decent effort for what looks like a no-hope seat.

    Perhaps it really was that close under Gillard’s leadership. No chance of Labor losing it now though.

  10. Doubt this seat was ever in doubt for Labor, even under the worst polls of Gillard.

    My feeling is that Ted Hatzakortzian is simply building a resume and profile. Traditionally would be up-and-comers have a go in no hope seats.

  11. I suppose so.

    Just an interesting contrast between a fairly high profile Liberal campaign in Maribyrnong versus almost nothing at all in Wills.

  12. Interesting seat of two parts. Ted has had a few signs etc around the Essendon part, but I haven’t seen anything of him around Braybrook (and I travel through both each day). Lining up to contest Essendon may well be correct.

Comments are closed.