Shayne Neumann, since 2007.
Blair covers most of the City of Ipswich as well as Somerset Regional Council. The seat covers the urban area of Ipswich and rural areas to the west, and towns such as Esk and Kilcoy.
Blair was created at the 1998 election, one of a number of seats created in Queensland over the last few decades. The seat was held by the Liberal Party until 2007, when the ALP won.
Blair took over territory in Ipswich in 1998 from the seat of Oxley. Oxley had a long history of being held by the Labor Party but was lost to disendorsed Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson in 1996. Hanson formed One Nation in her term in the House of Representatives, and contested Blair in 1998. Hanson came first on primary votes, but lost on preferences. Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson came third on primary votes, but overtook the ALP on Nationals preferences and then overtook Hanson on Labor preferences.
Thompson held Blair at the 2001 and 2004 elections, but lost in 2007 to Labor candidate Shayne Neumann. Neumann was assisted by a redistribution which saw Blair take in more of pro-Labor Ipswich, losing rural conservatives areas to the northwest, although it gained areas to the southwest which have since been shedded. The 2010 redistribution again favoured Labor, but Neumann suffered a 2.7% swing at the election.
- Elwyn Denman (Family First)
- Shayne Neumann (Labor)
- Dale Chorley (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Anthony Mackin (Rise Up Australia)
- Teresa Harding (Liberal National)
- Anthony Stanton (Palmer United Party)
- Claire Rudkin (Greens)
- Shannon Deguara (Australian Independents)
Blair is a marginal Labor seat, and if there is a significant anti-Labor swing the seat will likely fall to the LNP. In current circumstances, this seems less likely.
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
Booths have been divided into five areas. Booths in Somerset local government area have been grouped together. Those booths in the City of Ipswich have been divided into four parts. Those in the rural west of the council area have been grouped together. Most of Blair’s population lives in the urban area around the centre of Ipswich, and these have been divided into Central, North and East.
The ALP won a majority in those areas in urban Ipswich, varying from 54.2% in the north to 63.2% in the east. The LNP won a majority of 53% in rural Ipswich and 56.2% in Somerset.
The Greens’ vote varied from 7.9% in Somerset to 13.1% in East Ipswich.
|Voter group||GRN %||ALP 2PP %||Total votes||% of votes|