Yerrabi – ACT 2016

Incumbent MPs contesting Yerrabi

  • Alistair Coe (Liberal)
  • Meegan Fitzharris (Labor)
  • Jayson Hinder (Labor)

Geography
Yerrabi covers the northern suburbs of Canberra, including the entire Gungahlin district, parts of the Belconnen district and the town of Hall. Yerrabi covers the suburbs of Gungahlin, Forde, Bonner, Ngunnawal, Kaleen, McKellar, Mitchell and Franklin.

Redistribution
Yerrabi is a new seat, taking in areas previously contained in Molonglo and Ginninderra. The majority of the electorate was previously in Molonglo, including a majority of the Gungahlin area. The suburbs of Nicholls, Crace, Palmerston, Evatt, McKellar, Lawson and Giralang and the town of Hall were previously contained in Ginninderra.

History (Molonglo)
The electorate of Molonglo was created in 1995, when the ACT electoral system was changed to introduce multi-member districts for the first time. The seat covered almost exactly the same area from 1995 until 2012, having undergone three minor redistributions prior to the 2001, 2008 and 2012 elections.

Molonglo has always elected 2 Labor, 2 Liberal and one Green. The other two seats have been shared. At three out of six elections, Molonglo elected three Labor and three Liberal. In 1995 and 1998, Labor only won two seats, with the other seat going to an independent. In 2008, the Liberal Party’s third seat was lost to a second Green.

At the first election in 1995, the Liberal Party elected three members and Labor elected two. Michael Moore was elected as an independent, and Kerrie Tucker was elected as a Greens MLA. The same split of 3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens and an independent was maintained in 1998.

In 2001, Labor won a third seat upon the retirement of independent MLA Michael Moore. This split of 3 Liberal, 3 Labor and one Green was maintained in 2004.

Gary Humphries’ term as Chief Minister had ended at the 2001 election. He was appointed to a vacancy in the Senate as the sole Liberal Senator representing the ACT in late 2002. In early 2003, his Assembly seat was filled by Jacqui Burke, returning to the Assembly for a second time.

In 2008, the Liberal Party won two seats, while the Greens won a second seat. Labor held on to their three seats.

In 2012, the Liberal Party regained their third seat, while the Greens were reduced to one seat.

History (Ginninderra)
The electorate of Ginninderra was created in 1995, when the ACT electoral system was changed to introduce multi-member districts for the first time.The seat covered almost exactly the same area from 1995 until 2012, having undergone two minor redistributions prior to the 2001 and 2012 elections.

Ginninderra has always elected five MLAs. Labor has always won two seats, and the Liberal Party has also won two. The fifth seat has alternated between Labor and a succession of crossbenchers.

In 1995, the fifth seat was won by Greens candidate Lucy Horodny. In 1998, she lost that seat to independent Dave Rugendyke, running on a social conservative platform with former rugby league player Paul Osborne.

In 2001, the seat instead went Roslyn Dundas of the Democrats.

In 2004, the seat went to Labor’s Mary Porter, giving Labor three out of the five seats, which helped give them majority government for the only time in ACT history.

In 2008, the third Labor seat was lost to the Greens’ Meredith Hunter, one of four Greens elected across the territory. In 2012, Hunter lost her seat to Labor’s Yvette Berry.

Candidates

  • A – Liberal Democrats
    • Dave Green
    • Declan Keating
  • B – Liberal
    • Alistair Coe*
    • Amanda Lynch
    • James Milligan
    • Justin States
    • Jacob Vadakkedathu
  • C – Like Canberra
    • Tim Bohm
    • Casey Heffernan
  • D – Sustainable Australia
    • Paul Gabriel
    • Violet Sheridan
  • E – Labor
    • Meegan Fitzharris*
    • Deepak-Raj Gupta
    • Jayson Hinder*
    • Suzanne Orr
    • Michael Petersson
  • F – Greens
    • Andrew Braddock
    • Tobias Holm
    • Veronica Wensing
  • G – Sex Party
    • Andrew Dewson
    • Susie Kennett
  • Ungrouped
    • Mandy Cottingham (Animal Justice)
    • Daniel Evans
    • David Pollard

Assessment
Both Labor and Liberal appear to be strong enough to safely maintain two of their seats. The fifth seat is an open race between Liberal, Labor and Greens. The Greens would need to pick up a higher vote to win the fifth seat. If either major party gains a swing, they will likely win the seat. If they were to stay roughly still, the winner might be decided based on which of the two major parties is able to efficiently distribute their primary vote between their top three candidates, although Labor would likely benefit from Greens preferences if the Greens are not in contention.

2012 result

Party%Quota
Liberal 39.92.393
Labor 38.22.294
Greens 8.70.521
Motorist Party5.50.327
Bullet Train for Canberra3.70.225
Liberal Democratic Party1.80.109
Others2.20.130

Booth breakdown


Polling places in the new seat of Yerrabi have been split into three parts. Polling places in the Belconnen district have been grouped as “south”. Polling places in the Gungahlin district (along with Hall) have been split between north-east and north-west.

The Liberal Party outpolled Labor in the north-east and north-west, while Labor outpolled the Liberal Party in the south.

The Liberal vote ranged from 32.6% in the south to 45.8% in the north-west.

The Labor vote ranged from 36.3% in the north-west to 41.5% in the south. The Greens vote ranged from 6.7% in the north-west to 9.2% in the south.

Voter groupLIB %ALP %GRN %Total votes% of votes
North East43.737.87.79,47624.3
South32.641.59.28,79822.5
North West45.836.36.75,16513.2
Pre-poll40.737.29.011,17828.6
Other votes37.437.711.44,42311.3

Election results in Yerrabi at the 2012 ACT election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.

2 COMMENTS

  1. The first word in the Redistribution paragraph should be “Yerrabi” not “Murrumbidgee”. The History (Brindabella) section doesn’t belong here at all, none of this electorate was previously in Brindabella.

  2. This is the real battleground and election promises and campaign spending are matching up accordingly. Any path to Labor majority or Liberal government involves winning the final seat here as well as the final Brindabella seat, and the Greens have a much better chance of preventing either of those outcomes here than in Brindabella.

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