WA redistribution – margins published

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It’s taken some time as I’ve waited for some necessary data, but I’ve now compiled my own margin estimates for the 59 state electorates in Western Australia following the recent redistribution.

I won’t lay claim to originality: both William Bowe and Antony Green have previously published their own estimates. Mine are very similar with a few exceptions where my figures differ from one or both of them. I’m not saying mine are necessary better than others but I thought I should publish them as they will be used as the basis for my maps and tables at the time of the election.

The table of margins is below the fold, along with a map.

Electorate Old boundaries New boundaries Incumbent party
Albany 5.1 5.9 ALP vs NAT
Armadale 25.2 25.2 ALP vs LIB
Balcatta 5.8 7.9 ALP vs LIB
Baldivis 7.2 3.7 ALP vs IND
Bassendean 21.5 21.7 ALP vs LIB
Bateman 9.5 8.2 LIB vs ALP
Belmont 11.4 11.4 ALP vs LIB
Bicton 2.9 3.5 ALP vs LIB
Bunbury 10.8 11.1 ALP vs LIB
Burns Beach 2.5 4.3 ALP vs LIB
Butler 19.4 20.5 ALP vs LIB
Cannington 18.1 17.9 ALP vs LIB
Carine 9.0 10.6 LIB vs ALP
Central Wheatbelt 22.6 23.5 NAT vs ALP
Churchlands 13.2 11.7 LIB vs ALP
Cockburn 15.9 13.7 ALP vs LIB
Collie-Preston 14.7 13.6 ALP vs LIB
Cottesloe 13.3 14.1 LIB vs ALP
Darling Range 5.8 6.0 ALP vs LIB
Dawesville 0.7 0.9 LIB vs ALP
Forrestfield 9.4 9.4 ALP vs LIB
Fremantle 23.1 23.1 ALP vs LIB
Geraldton 1.3 1.3 LIB vs ALP
Hillarys 4.1 0.1 LIB vs ALP
Jandakot 1.0 2.0 ALP vs LIB
Joondalup 0.6 1.0 ALP vs LIB
Kalamunda 2.5 2.4 ALP vs LIB
Kalgoorlie 6.2 6.2 LIB vs ALP
Kimberley 13.0 13.0 ALP vs LIB
Kingsley 0.7 1.2 ALP vs LIB
Kwinana 18.1 21.0 ALP vs LIB
Landsdale 16.7 9.7 ALP vs LIB
Mandurah 18.0 18.1 ALP vs LIB
Maylands 17.9 17.9 ALP vs LIB
Midland 13.0 12.8 ALP vs LIB
Mirrabooka 19.2 23.5 ALP vs LIB
Moore 13.9 14.7 NAT vs LIB
Morley 11.4 12.5 ALP vs LIB
Mount Lawley 4.0 4.0 ALP vs LIB
Murray-Wellington 1.4 1.8 ALP vs LIB
Nedlands 8.3 8.1 LIB vs ALP
North West Central 9.5 10.1 NAT vs ALP
Perth 11.8 12.6 ALP vs LIB
Pilbara 2.3 2.3 ALP vs NAT
Riverton 4.4 4.4 LIB vs ALP
Rockingham 23.4 23.6 ALP vs LIB
Roe 14.4 13.6 NAT vs LIB
Scarborough 5.6 5.8 LIB vs ALP
South Perth 7.1 7.2 LIB vs ALP
Southern River 7.9 7.9 ALP vs LIB
Swan Hills 14.5 11.9 ALP vs LIB
Thornlie 15.8 15.8 ALP vs LIB
Vasse 14.7 14.7 LIB vs ALP
Victoria Park 16.5 16.3 ALP vs LIB
Wanneroo 7.3 8.9 ALP vs LIB
Warnbro 23.7 23.7 ALP vs LIB
Warren-Blackwood 13.4 12.9 NAT vs ALP
West Swan 17.1 19.2 ALP vs LIB
Willagee 15.5 18.1 ALP vs LIB
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