NSW by-election results live

Orange by-election results – 38 booths reporting, 9 booths reporting 2CP

9:15pm – We now have results from all of the ordinary booths. We don’t have any postal or pre-poll vote data, and it’s not clear if they will be coming tonight. We also don’t have a two-candidate-preferred count between the Nationals and the Shooters, which would make the picture much clearer. We won’t get a preference count tonight – I suspect it will come on Monday, so I think this is it for tonight. I’ll return tonight or tomorrow with some more analysis of the results, but that’s it for this liveblog.

7:51pm – We now have nearly all of the primary vote figures from election-day booths in Orange. Just waiting for the special votes (and Parkes Library) to report.

7:28pm – So we now have primary vote figures from 30 out of 37 booths, and the Shooters and Nationals are neck-and-neck. While the Nationals are almost 3% ahead of the Shooters, I project they will fall into line, as the remaining booths are less pro-Nationals than the booths which have reported so far.

7:13pm – With nine booths reporting two-candidate-preferred figures, Labor has a swing of 15.5% and a projected result for the Nationals of just over 56%, but that seems irrelevant as Labor is clearly not coming in the top two. So now we’ll just focus on the primary votes.

7:07pm – With four booths reporting from Wollongong, Labor is up 6.6% and Gordon Bradbery is up 8.5% compared to rthur Rorris in 2015. Worth noting that a lot of the votes last time went to the Liberal Party, who aren’t standing. The Greens vote is also up 4.2%. On current figures Labor is over 50%, but I project that will drop to 47%.

7:04pm – Sorry I haven’t had time to look at the other by-elections, will sneak a peek at Wollongong now. Won’t have time to make full tables of the others.

7:02pm – We have quite a few booths reporting from Orange now, and while Labor has a 19% swing after preferences (not quite enough to win) they are not gaining any primary votes, while the Shooters are polling over 30%. If this plays out, the Shooters could end up topping the primary vote with Labor and independent preferences deciding the winner.

6:43pm: We have six small booths from Orange, and the Nationals vote has crashed by 35.7%, with 22.9% going to the Shooters. The Labor vote has only increased by 0.7%.

6:31pm: Most of that lost Nationals vote has gone to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, who are on almost 30%. That could suggest that the Shooters are the primary rival, or that these votes will be decisive as preferences. Remember the Shooters are preferencing Labor.

6:27pm: First booth in Orange has just reported: Spring Terrace Public School. It’s a small booth with just 167 formal votes. Last time the Nationals polled 75.3%, this time they’re on 33.5%. I’m still working on the model, but safe to say that’s a big shift.

6pm: Polls have just closed in three by-elections being held in the NSW state seats of Canterbury, Orange and Wollongong. We should start getting results in within about an hour – right now I’m just building a model to project results which should be useful. If you’re looking for something to read now, check out my article in the Guardian today about the by-elections.

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