We’re getting close to the end! In this update, I am calling two more seats for Labor, leaving only one seat up for grabs.
This leaves a total of:
- 76 – Coalition
- 68 – Labor
- 5 – Others
- 1 – undecided
|Seat||Absent||Provisional||Pre-poll||Postal||Current Labor lead||Projected Labor lead|
There are still about 5000 absent and prepoll votes in Cowan. Labor has a substantial 1030-vote lead. Labor has only polled 45% of the prepoll vote, which is the reason why I’m expecting a drop in the Labor lead, but Labor should still win. This seat is called for Labor.
There are very few votes left in Herbert, but the race is still extremely close. Most of the remaining votes are prepoll and postal votes. Labor has won 46% of the prepoll vote and 43% of the postal vote, which is why the model suggests the LNP will increase their lead. If Labor could win 50% in both these vote categories they would likely win a slim victory, but that seems unlikely.
Most remaining votes in Hindmarsh are absent votes, and Labor has won 56% of these votes up until now. Because of this, Labor is on track to increase their lead. Called for Labor.