QLD 2015 – day four counting update

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Most of yesterday’s attention was focused on the seats of Lockyer and Gaven, where new preference counts have been mostly completed today after the two candidates selected for the election-night two-party count proved to be incorrect in both seats.

As of last night, the LNP’s Ian Rickuss had taken a 205-vote lead over Pauline Hanson in Lockyer. The LNP’s Sid Cramp now holds an 823-vote lead over Labor in Gaven. In both cases, most primary votes that have been distributed as preferences, and these two seats are in a similar status to the remaining close seats – we are waiting for a range of special votes, in particular pre-poll and absentee votes, to be counted as primary votes and two-party-preferred votes to determine who will win each seat.

The other major development today took place in Ferny Grove, where Labor is holding a narrow lead. It has emerged that PUP candidate Mark Taverner is an undischarged bankrupt, and was thus ineligible to stand. It is unclear whether this may force a by-election in the seat. If there is a by-election, it will be harder for Labor to form a government, and may prompt an extended period of instability in Queensland.

ElectorateLNPALP/ONLNP lead
Ferny Grove12,35912,700-341
Gaven10,93210,109823
Glass House13,08712,286801
Lockyer11,69311,488205
Mansfield11,37110,824547
Mount Ommaney12,55312,072481
Redlands12,69911,6011,098
Whitsunday12,32112,158163

Ferny Grove

Additional votes have been counted, and Antony Green estimates these extra votes have shrunk the Labor lead from 577 votes to 341 votes. As mentioned above, there is now a possibility that a by-election will be required in Ferny Grove.

Gaven

Only a small proportion of preferences had been counted on Monday, and since then most preferences were counted on Tuesday. These votes increased the LNP lead from 193 to 823 votes. The LNP are now in a strong position to win.

Glass House

A small amount of additional counting has increased the LNP lead slightly from 798 to 801 votes.

Lockyer

Most preferences were counted on Tuesday, and Pauline Hanson dropped from leading the LNP by 365 votes to trailing by 205 votes. Either side could easily win.

Mansfield

No additional counting has taken place.

Maryborough

Labor has increased their primary vote lead over Chris Foley from 1090 to 1135 votes.

Mount Ommaney

Antony Green’s estimate for the LNP’s lead has been cut from 525 votes to 481.

Redlands

According to Antony Green, the LNP’s lead has increased from 796 votes to 1098. Hard to see Labor coming back in this seat.

Whitsunday

No additional counting has taken place.

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17 COMMENTS

  1. ALP gone – no way Katter Party will support Labor. They can talk all they want about negotiating but they’ve made up their mind. No way they would ever support Labor. Imagine Knuth – a former right wing One Nation MP working with Labor. Don’t make me laugh. Wellington may support Labor but Ferny Grove will vote again and I fear that only hurts Labor. LNP by-election win. I’m a Labor man but if the ALP couldn’t win FG easily under this election, they won’t win without asset sales or Campbell to attack.

  2. if Wellington supports labor then KAP has more reason to go labor for stability and the anti assets and the fact that the LNP won’t be able to get its leadership act together. Can’t imagine MT Isa voters would be happy given its a labor electorate. If Ferny Grove votes it will go labor. Newman was an asset in Brisbane suburbs that’s why the swing was so much lower in that part of the state. Without him they won’t go LNP even with Emerson as leader and especially with the Borg as leader. Ferny Grove struggled like all seats like mount Cootha and Ashgrove and brisbane Centrala and greenslopes and bulimba, because Newman is an asset in that part of the state because he received their overwhelming support as mayor. Newman wasn’t as negative there as he was in the northern suburbs or North queensland.
    That’s why every news outlet is writing on a labor government because that is most likely. Your prediction on ashgrove will prove more right then on this

  3. Rudd4PM: you got the wrong Knuth. There’s two brothers: Jeff is the One Nation MP in the 90’s, pathetically unsucessful One Nation candidate for Thuringowa last week, and almost successful KAP candidate in between. Shane was elected as a Nat, and took out a sitting ONP MP when their seats were merged. He then jumped to KAP, and he’s still there. He’s the one Palaszczuk is dealing with.

    Observer: how is Mt Isa a “Labor electorate”? On both state and federal figures, the Katter family own it.

  4. Bird of Paradox in the same way you would say New England is a nationals electorate when tony Windsor held it and backed labor

  5. Dearie me, R4M. So insistent have you been that Labor will lose, that even when they have probably won you say they’ve lost.

    Assuming Ferny Grove is secure, Labor already has 43 seats. They seem to have the support of Wellington, that makes it 44.

    Whitsunday or Maryborough would make it 45. If Labor wins neither, then they could get to 45 with the support of Foley.

    They may not even need KAP. But if they do – say Foley backs LNP (or Foley loses in a runoff against the LNP?) – KAP have given every indication they come to the negotiations with an open mind. Plus they were poorly treated by the last government.

    I know which party I’d rather be.

  6. most likely result…..Alp 44……. can then govern with P. Wellington and KAP can do as they wish… KAP will probably support ALP govt for stability

  7. What happened with WA 2013 then, or Fairfax with Palmer? Only the big two coalitions Lib/Bats and Grns/Lab can fully field scrutineers. It is a big effort to cover say 60 booths from 8AM until 10PM or longer. Then no one is a scrutineers over night for the counting to recommence. The last time I was a Scrutineer everyone was locked out of the Polling Place for maybe 10 minutes after the booth closed, before they opened up for the Scrutineers… Maybe nothing happened, it probably didn’t, yet it might have. And Polling Place Managers employing their family members and friends compounds the risk.

    That being said. Ben, please cover the Newcastle Ward 3 By Election. Prepoll starts on Monday and the actual election day is the 21st.

    Cheers, Arjay Martin.

  8. Arjay,

    I won’t be covering the Ward 3 by-election, I’m busy preparing for the NSW state election.

    Your conspiracy theories make you look ridiculous. Yes, there are counting errors in elections, but the AEC are the best electoral administrators in the world. Of course you’ve got no evidence, just speculation.

  9. Arjay:

    The last time I was a Scrutineer everyone was locked out of the Polling Place for maybe 10 minutes after the booth closed, before they opened up for the Scrutineers…

    Beer o’clock after a long day of customer service, perhaps? Everyone needs a bit of down time after work. If I was working there all day, and when the doors shut I had the choice between some anti-democratic mischief or just cracking one open, I know which one I’d pick.

    Observer: Mt Isa has been held by four different parties in the last 30-odd years – it’s nobody’s safe seat. A better comparison to New England would be Gladstone – a traditional Labor seat, apart from when an independent gets in the way.

  10. There was a High Court Case Ben, where the AEC admitted to ‘illegal practises likely to effect the results of the election’ – hence WA went back to the Polls for the Senate campaign. The main Electoral Commissioner was then relieved of his post… That is not a ‘theory’.

  11. You’re suggesting some kind of grand conspiracy by the AEC to rig the election, whereas the votes could have just as easily been misplaced. It was a problem, absolutely, but let’s not pretend that it’s evidence of something deeper.

  12. Where did I suggest that? This is from the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 [CTH] which the Senate Election was voided…. Note ‘illegal practices’. The AEC admitted to doing that Ben. s360 (3) ‘Without limiting the powers conferred by this section, it is hereby declared that the power of the Court to declare that any person who was returned as elected was not duly elected, or to declare an election absolutely void, may be exercised on the ground that illegal practices were committed in connexion with the election.’

  13. Bird of paradox it has been labor for 23 years, that’s like saying Riverina went to labor in the 70s that’s a Nat seat now like mount Isa is. Katter splits the labor vote as seen on the weekend and the member before Katter Snr was an MP was a labor MP. Its a labor leaning electorate because when KAP are no more I gaurnatee it will elect labor rep

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