With twenty-four hours to go until polls close in the first states in the US election, I thought it was a good time to make predictions and look at the state of the race. The Pollster.com national average has Obama leading McCain by 7% as undecided voters make their choice. Both candidates’ numbers are increasing, but the gap remains solidly in Obama’s favour. Likewise in the key states.
So here is my predicted election map result:
This prediction gives Obama all Kerry states, as well as Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia and Florida, for a total of 349 Electoral Votes. I came close to calling North Dakota and North Caroline for Obama, but I decided against it.
With the Senate, my prediction is that Democrats retain all of their seats, and pick up the following Republican seats:
- New Mexico
- North Carolina
- New Hampshire
This produces a total of 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans and 2 Independents. I called Kentucky and Georgia for the Republican incumbents, but those two races will be the most interesting contests to watch tomorrow. If they fall, the Democrats with Bernie Sanders will have the fillibuster-proof majority, and will have defeated the Senate Minority Leader.
So what are your predictions? Post them in the comments below.
I’m going to try and liveblog tomorrow as the results flow in. Check in then for the latest updates.