After a great deal of work, the Tally Room guide to the WA 2013 state election now has profiles of 32 out of 59 Legislative Assembly districts and all six Legislative Council regions.
Unfortunately I’ve run out of time to finish the state, although I may post a few more profiles.
In the meantime – please visit the guide, read and comment on the profiles done, which include most seats that will be of any interest on election night, and you can click through to the newly-written profiles of the Legislative Council races:
Given that future electorate profiles are unlikely for this guide, here are the rest of my predictions:
Geraldton (LIB 8.5%) – Liberal retain
Maylands (ALP 8.8%) – Labor retain
Murray-Wellington (LIB 8.8%) – Liberal retain
Cannington (ALP 9.0%) – Labor retain
Victoria Park (ALP 9.0%) – Labor retain
Cockburn (ALP 9.2%) – Labor retain
Bateman (LIB 9.4%) – Liberal retain
Warnbro (ALP 10.1%) – Labor retain
Warren-Blackwood (NAT 10.2%) – National retain
Bassendean (ALP 10.3%) – Labor retain
Butler (ALP 10.4%) – Labor retain, although the margin appears to be inflated. This would be a Liberal seat on federal figures, though Labor should hold this for as long as John Quigley runs here.
Mandurah (ALP 10.5%) – Labor retain, like Butler, with an inflated margin.
Bunbury (LIB 11.1%) – Liberal retain
Dawesville (LIB 11.1%) – Liberal retain
Rockingham (ALP 11.4%) – Labor retain
Carine (LIB 12.7%) – Liberal retain
Hillarys (LIB 12.9%) – Liberal retain
Mirrabooka (ALP 12.9%) – Labor retain
South Perth (LIB 14.3%) – Liberal retain
Armadale (ALP 14.8%) – Labor retain
Willagee (ALP 15.0%) – Labor retain
Nedlands (LIB 16.6%) – Liberal retain
Vasse (LIB 17.8%) – Liberal retain
Central Wheatbelt (NAT 18.8%) – National retain
Cottesloe (LIB 19.4%) – Liberal retain
Wagin (NAT 28.4% vs LIB) – National retain
Thank you Mr. Raue for this guide and all the other guides you have done in the past, they are always interesting to read.
Oops, forgot one seat:
Churchlands (IND 22.5% vs ALP) – Liberal gain
Anton,
What is your strike rate in predictions?
I tip the Liberals to take the following seats…
* Morley (actually held by a Liberal but notionally held by Labor);
* Churchlands and Alfred Cove from Independents;
* Albany, Forrestfield, Balcatta, Joondalup, and Collie-Preston from Labor.
I tip the Nationals to gain Pilbara from Labor and Kalgoorlie from the Independent hands.
Moore and Eyre will be each-way bets between the Liberals and the Nationals.
Barnett will win, but whether or not he needs the support of the Nationals is the big question.
I tend to agree with Warren above, with the addition of Butler as a “shock” gain.
Inflated Labor margin, underlying Liberal majority at fed level, swung against the trend in 2008, outer suburban area which can swing big and tends to go with government…
Unless there is some specific local issue helping Labor and hurting the Liberals, I am surprised this is not talked about more as a potential gain.
It doesn’t make much sense to talk about federal figures on Butler… it’s in Pearce, which is a safe Liberal seat thanks to the hills and wheatbelt that make up the rest of it. John Quigley is safe, particularly because of how high-profile he can be when he wants to be. (Plus, Clarkson / Ridgewood is apparently becoming the Balga of the far north.)
(You really want a smokey? I’ll throw ya Girrawheen.)
As for Mandurah, it’s drifted very much to Labor over the last decade (meanwhile, Dawesville has stayed Liberal). It might be because of Labor building the Mandurah line, or David Templeman might be doing awesome things there without blowing his own trumpet. I don’t know why… ask someone from down there.
Other quirky bits ‘n’ pieces:
Keep an eye on Warren-Blackwood. As it’s currently drawn, it contains every strong town for the Greens in the south-west, so combined with them campaigning hard there to get Giz Watson in, they have a good chance of pushing Labor down to fourth. Their preferences matter… and they’ve preferenced the Libs second in Warren-Blackwood (like in North West Central). Terry Redman should still win, but it’ll be interesting.
Vasse and the three western suburbs seats have independents to watch. In Vasse, Bernie Masters (ex-Lib MP) is running again to try to get his old seat back – he came within 0.9% in 2005, when Troy Buswell replaced him. Considering the disaster area that Buswell has become, it might just work. I was surprised he didn’t run in 2008.
Nedlands and Cottesloe both have local mayors running in protest against council amalgamations. (That area has about seven local councils, some of which cover only one or two suburbs). They’re a bunch of parochial nutcases, but they may have some support. (They are also seats the Greens could come in ahead of Labor, not that it matters much.)
Further north, Elizabeth Re is running for Churchlands, and I reckon she’ll do OK. She’s a Stirling councillor for Doubleview ward (which overlaps Churchlands and Scarborough), and won that ward with ~70% majorities in 2005 and 2009. She got 9% in Scarborough in 2008 against Liza Harvey (meanwhile, another Stirling councillor, Bill Stewart, got 18% in Carine). In Churchlands, which hasn’t voted for a an official Liberal in 20 years and with Constable retiring, I’ll be keeping an eye on her.
Booth watching: check out the Lynwood SHS booth in Cannington, where the Greens got 22% in 2008 – it was their best booth outside the Freo area, inner northern suburbs, or various SW towns (the usual suspects). Also, the small town of Mukinbudin in the NE of Central Wheatbelt, where the CDP came second with an utterly atypical 17.5%.
OK, here’s my hat in the ring. Predictions:
Lib win: Churchlands (retiring ind), Alfred Cove (ind), Forrestfield, Balcatta, Albany, Joondalup (from ALP).
ALP win: Morley (Lib), Fremantle (Grn/ind).
Nat win: Pilbara, North West Central (ALP); Kalgoorlie (retiring ind).
New totals: Lib 29, ALP 24, Nat 7.
And in the upper house (don’t forget that): Nats to win a seat from the Greens in Mining and Pastoral, and lose one to Max Trenorden in Agriculturual. (Dunno about Giz Watson in South West… heart says yes, brain says no.) Lib/Nat majority stays put.
Side thingys: Labor to hold Kimberley by the skin of their teeth, helped by lots of Green preferences. (Add Broome to my “booth watching” paragraph in the last post – Greens could do very well out of the James Price Point issue. There were 20,000 people at a protest concert about it in Freo a couple of weeks ago, it’s a big deal.) Swing to Labor in West Swan and Swan Hills (and probably Morley).
Smokeys: Libs in Girrawheen, Labor in Swan Hills, Elizabeth Re in Churchlands, Carol Adams in Kwinana. All worth a lazy $20 if you like gambling.
(Correction: make that Lib 29, ALP 23, Nat 7 – Labor held Freo in 2008, so it isn’t a gain.)
I agree with Warren Grzic predictions I would however like to expand on it. West Swan and Gosnells might be picked up by the liberals however I would put it at a 50/50 chance or something close to it with a slight lean towards Labor. Maybe West Swan had the train line promise by the liberals going against it. Kimberly and Belmont are in my opinion more likely to flip towards the liberals. In Belmont a combination of a weak labor candidate, combined with the former mayor running as a liberal should put it over the top. Also while Eric Ripper was not knifed expect the electorate to be slightly unhappy by him being replaced without a chance at an election.
What the hell are you talking about? He’s been the local MP for 25 years, deputy premier and treasurer for the full term of a Labor govt, and now he’s retiring, announced well ahead of time. Senior politicians do it all the time, on all sides.
Hello Pollster,
Regarding my strike rate in predictions:
2011 NSW election – 83/93 (got Campbelltown, Cessnock, Charlestown, Granville, Kogarah, Marrickville, Newcastle, Smithfield, Swansea and Wollongong wrong)
Last year’s QLD election – 81/89 (got Mulgrave, Lytton, Logan, Sandgate, Nudgee, Waterford, Ipswich and Maryborough wrong)
Last year’s US Presidential election – 49/51 (got Florida and Virginia wrong)
Bird of paradox my parents live in the electorate and its just the feeling they are getting. They are by no means rusted on liberal voters and were Democrats all their lives when they lived in the US. Arguing this is totally illogical when we can simply wait and see who is right come election day.
Anton,
Good predicting.
In NSW, I think I got 89 (Smithfield, Kogarah, Blacktown and Cessnock) – fluke in hindsight. But I haven’t done the reconciliation to confirm this.
Qld – about 65 (so bad I haven’t been brave enough to go back and do the count). Thought Labor would hold about 15-20 seats so the end result was me being way off.
US – didn’t do a state by state but I always felt that Obama would win.
Cheers
BoP I would agree Labor should hold Belmont, while arguably being in more danger in seats with higher margins, but there does seem to be persistant talk suggesting Labor is worried about the seat. It was included in their list of “targeted seats” for the final days of the campaign, for example.
It might all be smokescreen and BS, but maybe the party insiders know something we don’t…..
My predictions:
Labour to win Fremantle (ind) and Morley (lib).
Liberals to win from Labour: Albany, Balcatta, Joondalup, Collie-Preston, West Swan
Liberals to win from Inds: Alfred Cove and Churchlands
Nationals to win from Lab: North West Central and Pilbara
Nationals to win from Ind: Kalgoorlie
Liberals or Nats (can’t split to the two): to win Kimberley from Lab
Not surprised if: Lab holds Albany and Collie- Preston (very strong local members). Lib beat Nat in Warren-Blackburn and Nat beat Lib in Eyre.
Smokies: Lib to win Gosnells
Gosnells is another one of those funny ones. In Gozzy the suburb, you only need to walk through it to know it’s a Labor patch. Anywhere further out than Oats Street station on the Armadale line is comparable to the Parramatta-Penrith line in Sydney, or the Dandenong line in Melbourne. However, the seat also has some of the very new suburbia between the S and SE corridors (Huntingdale, mainly), and that’s the area that could swing wildly. Any seat based on the SE corridor is solid Labor (Vic Park, Cannington, Gosnells, Armadale), but the one west of there gets completely changed just about every redistribution, and tends to go with government. (Right now, it’s Southern River and it’s Liberal. Next time, who knows.)
Other prediction I forgot to put down before: biggest swings in Perth to be in Jandakot, Southern River and Wanneroo. The sophomore surge in outer suburban sprawl-ville may be ugly. (Also the reason Forrestfield won’t be close.)
Pollster: I’m glad you’ve kept the faith in Peter Watson… William Bowe convinced me he probably won’t hang on, due to the 17% advantage he has on federal Labor in Albany being hard to improve on. (Of course, if he does win, William owes me a coupla beers for leading me astray. 😛 ) I’ve explained in the Collie-Preston thread why I reckon that one’s staying Labor for now, although Mick Murray may be the last Labor MP from the area for quite some time.
Also, Labor has no “u”, and the seat based on Manjimup and Bridgetown is called Warren-BlackWOOD. (You’re from eastern Melbourne, yeah?) I’d be surprised if the Libs win there, despite Grn/ALP preference decisions, and I’d be amazed if the Nats win Eyre. If that happens it’ll be from a goldfields Nat blitz that sees Wendy Duncan win Kalgoorlie on the primary vote.
Late thoughts on Mt Lawley anyone?
I also have my suspicions that demographic change (that is, UK immigration) in Clarkson sends it more Liberal. Dunno.
Bop – good pick up about eastern suburbs Melb – lived in Keysborough for a while and know the Spring vale Dandenong corridor very well. Now based in Syd.
Apologies for my spelling – did the post after a very good dinner and a couple of wines….. In hindsight, given the size of my head ache this morning, I am surprised that the post is as coherent as it is.
I don’t get a feel that Labor will be wiped out the way the Libs were, for example, in Victoria when Bracks was the Premier. So I am expecting a smaller swing than might otherwise be thought.
Well, the Libs weren’t wiped out in 2001 or 2005 either (the old malapportioned boundaries helped them there). The most lopsided result recently was in 1996, where Labor went down to 19 seats out of 57 (with a Lib 2pp of 55.2%, which seems to be about what’s expected tomorrow). One scary thing for Labor is that 4 of those 19 were Kalgoorlie, Eyre, Burrup and Pilbara. Of that lot, Burrup no longer exists, Eyre was merged with Roe and is now unwinnable, Kalgoorlie is on its own weird trajectory, and Pilbara will probably fall to the Nats. Labor barely have any seats outside Perth to count on these days.
Looks grim for Labor, they are trying unlike Vic Libs in 2002, maybe the swing will be heaviest in Liberal marginals, but I agree Labor’s collapse outside Perth is a real problem.
It’s not good for Labor to get wiped out outside of Perth, but it’ll be less disastrous than in previous years as a larger proportion of districts are now in Perth.
Bop – I hear you. But think Labor will have an AFL team (and potentially a full bench of 4 but more likely 2). Guess we will find out on Sat night how it pans out. If the 15 seat scenario you outline (and it definitely sounds plausible) then it is difficult to see how the Labor party can return to power at the next election…..
I don’t think it is going to be a very good day for Labor. Until Gillard is gone, every sitting Labor MP in the country is at risk. Pity the ALP are so ‘out of touch’ with what Australians think about the most disliked Prime Minister in our history.
Final Newspoll is 59.5-40.5 (!!) which would definitely bring a bunch of smokies into play.
Labor better hope a whole lot of that is taken up by sophomore surge and in rural WA.
Brenty, this isn’t about east coast politics. Bugger off.
Pollster: I’m not saying Labor will get 15 seats (OVOV pretty much rules that out), I’m pointing out that Labor used to have several non-Perth seats they could usually rely on even in an election loss. They’re now in the position of Collie-Preston being their only seat outside Perth, and even that is marginal and vulnerable to the nest redistribution.
Labor could get 19 seats, like in 1996, but for a different reason. Back then, they had a genuinely nasty result in Perth, and weren’t yet forgiven for WA Inc. This time, their vote might be better in Perth, but has crashed in the rest of WA (increasing the risk of a NSW/Qld style wipeout next time it gets really bad for them). Surrendering a quarter of the state’s population is no way to win elections.
According to Newspoll, there obviously isn’t a mood for change. In fact there’s a mood to give Labor a beating.
It would be a shame if the voters took baseball bats to Mark McGowan – he’s run one of the more thoughtful and credible state opposition campaigns in recent years, and I think he’s the right man.
Predict:
NAT gain – Pilbara, Kalgoorlie
LIB gain – Moore, Albany, Collie-Preston, Alfred Cove, Forrestfield, Joondalup, Balcatta
ALP gain – Fremantle, retain Morley
Final numbers being: LIB 31, ALP 22, NAT 6
Usually after a landlside defeat observers point to a shambolic opposition campaign but this confirms principle campaigns don’t make much difference. Votes set in stone. WA only part of country where its easy to be in govt?
Labor may have run a decent campaign before polling day…but their effort at polling booths has left a lot to be desired…
Observer,
Nothing of note expected in Mount Lawley. Although it’s a very marginal seat for the Liberals, nobody is really paying attention to it. I imagine that it’ll be safer by the end of election night.
Report card on my predictions:
Labour to win Fremantle (ind) and Morley (lib). 1/2
Liberals to win from Labour: Albany, Balcatta, Joondalup, Collie-Preston, West Swan (2/5) Missed Belmont, Perth, Forrestfield and Morley (-4)
Liberals to win from Inds: Alfred Cove and Churchlands 2/2
Nationals to win from Lab: North West Central and Pilbara (2/2)
Nationals to win from Ind: Kalgoorlie (1/1)
Liberals or Nats (can’t split to the two): to win Kimberley from Lab (TBD)
Not surprised if: Lab holds Albany and Collie- Preston (very strong local members). Lib beat Nat in Warren-Blackburn and Nat beat Lib in Eyre. (3 or 4/4 – No one more surprised than me. BOP you are owed a case of beer!)
Smokies: Lib to win Gosnells (Way off)
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