North Metropolitan – WA 2021

Incumbent MLCs

  • Peter Collier (Liberal), since 2005.
  • Alannah MacTiernan (Labor), since 2017. Previously 1993-1996.
  • Michael Mischin (Liberal), since 2009.
  • Martin Pritchard (Labor), since 2015.
  • Tjorn Sibma (Liberal), since 2017.
  • Alison Xamon (Greens), since 2017. Previously 2009-2013.

Geography

ElectorateMarginElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
BalcattaALP 7.9%CottesloeLIB 14.1%NedlandsLIB 8.1%
Burns BeachALP 4.3%HillarysLIB 0.1%PerthALP 12.6%
ButlerALP 20.5%JoondalupALP 1.0%ScarboroughLIB 5.8%
CarineLIB 10.6%KingsleyALP 1.2%WannerooALP 8.9%
ChurchlandsLIB 11.7%LandsdaleALP 9.7%

The North Metropolitan region covers the northern third of the Perth metropolitan area, stretching from Two Rocks to Cottesloe, stretching inland to the Perth CBD and Landsdale.

Labor hold eight seats in this region, while the Liberal Party holds six seats.

You can click through to individual seat profiles on the table above or on the map below.

Redistribution
The external boundaries of North Metropolitan region mostly remained the same, but there were some significant changes around the new seat of Landsdale, which primarily replaced Girrawheen.

Other seats underwent relatively minor changes.

History
North Metropolitan was created as a seven-member electorate at the 1989 election.

At that first election, the Liberal Party won four seats and the Labor Party won three seats. At the last seven elections, the Liberal Party won more seats than Labor at five elections, and the parties won equal numbers at two elections.

In 1993, the ALP lost one of its seats to a Liberal-turned-independent.

In 1996, the Liberal Party lost their fourth seat, with the last two seats going to the Greens’ Giz Watson and the Democrats’ Helen Hodgson.

The ALP won back their third seat off the Democrats, along with three Liberals and one Green. The 2005 election saw a similar result.

Prior to the 2008 election, a redistribution saw North Metropolitan become a six-member electorate. In 2008, three Liberals, two Labor and one Green was elected, with the ALP losing their third seat.

In 2013, the Liberal Party won a fourth seat off the Greens, leaving the region with no crossbench representatives for the first time since the early 1990s.

The 2017 election saw a restoration of the same result as 2008, with three Liberals, two Labor and one Green.

2017 result

GroupVotes%SwingQuotaSeatsRedist %Redist q.
Labor 124,80937.27.92.6056237.12.6204
Liberal 122,29636.5-20.62.5531336.52.5820
Greens 33,44810.01.20.6983110.00.7069
One Nation21,6776.56.50.452506.50.4627
Australian Christians5,3821.60.10.112401.60.1125
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers4,3591.30.20.091001.30.0928
Animal Justice3,9891.21.20.083301.20.0846
Liberal Democrats3,6621.11.10.076401.10.0774
Others15,6784.70.327304.70.3315
Informal8,0612.3

Four seats were decided on primary votes: two Labor and two Liberal. This left two seats in play.

Let’s fast forward until there were eleven candidates left running for those two seats:

  • Alison Xamon (GRN) – 0.718 quotas
  • Kelly Shay (ALP) – 0.601
  • Tjorn Sibma (LIB) – 0.557
  • John Bombak (ON) – 0.462
  • Dwight Randall (CHR) – 0.153
  • Henry Heng (FF) – 0.144
  • Paul Bedford (SFF) – 0.093
  • Natasha Chakich (AJP) – 0.086
  • Brian Murray (LDP) – 0.078
  • Tye Short (DSP) – 0.060
  • Julie Matheson (IND) – 0.046

Matheson’s preferences pushed the Daylight Saving Party up the ranks:

  • Xamon (GRN) – 0.719
  • Shay (ALP) – 0.603
  • Sibma (LIB) – 0.559
  • Bombak (ON) – 0.463
  • Randall (CHR) – 0.154
  • Heng (FF) – 0.144
  • Short (DSP) – 0.096
  • Bedford (SFF) – 0.094
  • Chakich (AJP) – 0.086
  • Murray (LDP) – 0.079

Liberal Democrats preferences mostly flowed to Family First:

  • Xamon (GRN) – 0.720
  • Shay (ALP) – 0.603
  • Sibma (LIB) – 0.560
  • Bombak (ON) – 0.463
  • Heng (FF) – 0.218
  • Randall (CHR) – 0.154
  • Short (DSP) – 0.096
  • Bedford (SFF) – 0.095
  • Chakich (AJP) – 0.087

Animal Justice preferences pushed Daylight Saving out of the danger zone and ahead of the Australian Christians:

  • Xamon (GRN) – 0.724
  • Shay (ALP) – 0.604
  • Sibma (LIB) – 0.561
  • Bombak (ON) – 0.464
  • Heng (FF) – 0.218
  • Short (DSP) – 0.174
  • Randall (CHR) – 0.155
  • Bedford (SFF) – 0.096

Shooters preferences pushed the Australian Christians ahead of its rivals:

  • Xamon (GRN) – 0.726
  • Shay (ALP) – 0.606
  • Sibma (LIB) – 0.563
  • Bombak (ON) – 0.466
  • Randall (CHR) – 0.242
  • Heng (FF) – 0.219
  • Short (DSP) – 0.176

Daylight Saving Party preferences split mostly between Family First and the Greens:

  • Xamon (GRN) – 0.806
  • Shay (ALP) – 0.608
  • Sibma (LIB) – 0.566
  • Bombak (ON) – 0.467
  • Heng (FF) – 0.307
  • Randall (CHR) – 0.242

Randall’s preferences split between a number of sources, but a majority went to Family First:

  • Xamon (GRN) – 0.807
  • Shay (ALP) – 0.609
  • Sibma (LIB) – 0.569
  • Bombak (ON) – 0.554
  • Heng (FF) – 0.456

Family First did well to get this far, but fell at this point, with the largest share of their vote going to One Nation, but sizeable amounts going to the other candidates:

  • Xamon (GRN) – 0.907
  • Bombak (ON) – 0.735
  • Sibma (LIB) – 0.695
  • Shay (ALP) – 0.659

Labor preferences pushed the Greens well over quota:

  • Xamon (GRN) – 1.480
  • Bombak (ON) – 0.796
  • Sibma (LIB) – 0.720

Most of the Greens surplus favoured the Liberal candidate, electing Sibma to the final seat:

  • Sibma (LIB) – 1.150
  • Bombak (ON) – 0.842

Candidates

  • A – Tyler Walsh (One Nation)
  • B – Elizabeth Re (Western Australia Party)
  • C – Michael Anagno (Animal Justice)
  • D – James Pearce (No Mandatory Vaccination)
  • G – Liberal
    1. Peter Collier
    2. Tjorn Sibma
    3. Simon Ehrenfeld
    4. Tim Walton
    5. Michael Mischin
  • H – Louis Hildebrandt (Australian Christians)
  • I – Colin Scott (Sustainable Australia)
  • J – Chris Irwin (Great Australian Party)
  • K – Michael Tucak (Independent)
  • L – Andrea Randle (Independent)
  • M – Sanjeev Gupta (Health Australia)
  • N – Jan Van Niekerk (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • O – Max Armstrong-Moore (Legalise Cannabis)
  • P – Kate Mary Fantinel (Liberal Democrats)
  • Q – John Golawski (Waxit)
  • R – N Spada (Independent)
  • S – Alison Xamon (Greens)
  • T – Billy Amesz (Independent)
  • U – Daithi Gleeson (Flux / Liberals for Climate)
  • V – Robert Tucker (Daylight Saving Party)
  • W – T Ravichandar (Independent)

Preferences
Labor preferenced the Greens second, followed by the parties in the micro-party alliance.

The Liberal Party preferenced the Liberal Democrats second, followed by the Western Australian Party, the Tucak independent ticket, the Shooters, Liberals for Climate, the Australian Christians and the lead Greens candidate, with One Nation much further down their ticket. That Greens candidate is very unlikely to require those preferences.

The micro-party alliance are consistently preferencing Liberals for Climate second.

The Greens preferenced Animal Justice, the Tucak independent ticket, Legalise Cannabis, Labor and then the micro-party alliance, with all other groups behind the Liberal Party.

Assessment
The first Labor and Liberal seats are very safe, and the second seats are reasonably safe too.

The last two seats are in play. This is one of the strongest regions for the Greens, and they would be favourites to hold one of the seats, particularly if they can stay ahead of the third Labor candidate. The Liberal likely remains the favourite for the other seat, but you can’t rule out one of the numerous minor parties.

The Liberals for Climate micro-party (previously known as Flux) have done well out of preferences.

Regional breakdown
Labor topped the vote in this region, with the vote ranging from 21.7% in Cottesloe to 52.7% in Butler.

The Liberal vote ranged from 19.7% in Butler to 55.1% in Cottesloe. The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 5.8% in Landsdale to 16.7% in Perth.

Results of the 2017 WA upper house election in the North Metropolitan region, by 2021 electorate

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