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The Liberals will lose O’Donoghue (formerly Grey) if polling is replicated on election day. This would be low hanging fruit for One Nation in SA who have few options in the state. The SA Liberals didn’t even finish in the final two in some seats (in Grey/O’Donoghue) at the state election.
I think in the Iron Triangle (Port Pirie, Port Augusta, Whyalla), there is a ‘red One Nation’ voter base. Their towns depend on the mining, smelting or manufacturing industries. They are traditionally Labor-voting, blue-collar workers but now lean to One Nation.
If there is a strong, well-resourced independent, the Liberals might miss out on the 2CP like what happened at the Farrer by-election.