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Despite the very large margin in 2025, unfavourable redistributions of this seat, Labor’s dithering of choosing a candidate and this seat getting no attention what so ever the Labor performed extremely well. I must admit I was convinced that this seat would get a double digit margin after 2025 due to the cost of living pressures really bitting an electorate like this. It’s likely that Labor will preselect Jeff Springfield due to name recognition however I remain unconvinced that they’ll pick this seat up next time around. The Greens performed extremely well in the Officer booths and the Pakenham booths which is quite impressive for an outer suburban seat so far away from their traditional heartland.
It’s possible that they’re getting Alessandra Soliven to run here in the state seat of Pakenham just to build up some name recognition for 2028 so they can field here, I could see it paying off especially is they expand parliament and Jason Wood moves seats.
This seat would be one that will be increasingly vulnerable to Labor. The Morrison Government’s HomeBuilder Grants would be popular among voters purchasing house and land packages in areas like here and Holt hence the strong performance in outer suburban areas. This evaporated by the 2025 election along with the anti-immigration and anti-multiculturalism direction of the Libs. Unless the Libs completely change direction, the increasing South Asian population in La Trobe would likely hand this seat to Labor.