Maylands – WA 2021

ALP 17.9%

Incumbent MP
Lisa Baker, since 2008.

Geography
North-eastern Perth. Maylands mostly lies in the City of Bayswater, with a small part in the City of Stirling. The district covers the suburbs of Bedford, Embleton, Inglewood and Maylands, and parts of Bayswater and Morley.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Maylands has existed continuously since 1930. The ALP has won the seat at every election bar one since 1956.

John Harman won the seat back in 1968 for the ALP after one term of a Liberal Party MP. He held the seat until his retirement in 1986.

Harman was succeeded by Peter Dowding, a cabinet minister and a Member of the Legislative Council since 1979. Dowding became Premier in 1988, and served for two years before being ousted in 1990.

Dowding resigned from Maylands in 1990, triggering a by-election that was won by Judy Edwards.

Edwards held Maylands for eighteen years, serving as a minister from 2001 to 2006, and retiring in 2008.

Lisa Baker won Maylands in 2008, again as the Labor candidate, and she was re-elected in 2013 and 2017.

Candidates

  • Carmel Addink (No Mandatory Vaccination)
  • Lisa Baker (Labor)
  • Peter Baker (Waxit)
  • Maria Andreeva (One Nation)
  • Emma Pringle (Greens)
  • Justin Iemma (Liberal)
  • Gaye Burnett (Australian Christians)

Assessment
Maylands is a safe Labor seat.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Lisa Baker Labor 11,37849.8+7.8
Amanda Madden Liberal 6,25527.4-15.8
Caroline Perks Greens 3,92017.1+4.8
Greg SmithMatheson for WA5392.4+2.4
Matt KleynAustralian Christians4532.0-0.6
Benny FensomeMicro Business3161.4+1.4
Informal 1,1714.9

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Lisa Baker Labor 15,50967.9+15.2
Amanda Madden Liberal 7,34532.1-15.2

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: north-east, north-west and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 66.3% in the north-west to 71.5% in the north-east.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 17.2% in the north-east to 20.9% in the south.

Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North-West18.066.35,35823.4
North-East17.271.54,77120.9
South20.967.53,43815.0
Pre-poll12.468.24,41119.3
Other votes17.865.94,88321.4

Election results in Maylands at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

14 COMMENTS

  1. Labor retain but The Greens very easily could make it into second place.

    Greens have been campaigning hard in this seat over time.

  2. Unless there is complete collapse in the liberal vote, I don’t see greens making 2nd place. Anecdotally I haven’t seen any posters or campaign material from greens yet and I suspect support for Mark McGowan will cause some typical green voters to vote labor this election.

    long term I think greens could possibly win the seat in a good liberal year in a scenario where they narrowly overtake labor.

  3. Easy Labor win. The Liberals seems to on the nose here more than any part of the State. Greens vote will probably rise in the Suburb of Maylands but specially in Bayswater, so they will probably hit the 20% mark.

  4. This was very marginal in 2013 – while Labor will easily win here this year, if the Liberals win big in 2025 or 2029 expect this to go blue (like Belmont did in 2013)

  5. Anton, there has been a huge demographic shift in Maylands. Once Liberal strong areas like Inglewood and the Pensinsula part of Maylands are now turning more Green as new voters move in. Libs probably have no chance here for the foreseeable future specially looking at the voting pattern in the Suburb of Bayswater.

  6. Yeah, Inglewood and Maylands are where you live if you want the Mt Lawley lifestyle but can’t afford the rent. Kinda like how the hipstery bit of Melbourne gradually creeps further up the 86 tram line.

  7. The Greens vote seems to be on the up and up here, although worth noting that this was with the same Greens candidate in the 2017 state election, 2018 federal byelection and the 2019 federal election. The Greens have a new candidate this time around, but from what I read it seems like this is a real political shift and not just a candidate’s personal vote.

    It’s not completely outside the realms of possibility, with Labor blatantly running as a centre-right party and the Liberals barely holding their head above water, for this seat to become a Labor vs Green runoff, though the Greens going on to win that runoff would be a miracle on top of a miracle. The Greens don’t seem to be running to win in any lower house seat.

    All in all, nothing to see here.

  8. @John,
    I have Lib HTV. This is their order.
    1. Libs
    2. Australian Christians
    3. One Nation
    4. Waxit
    5. Labor
    6. Greens
    7. Anti Vax Party

  9. This is the Lib HTV order in Maylands

    1. Lib
    2. Australian Christians
    3. One Nation
    4. Waxit
    5. Labor
    6. Greens
    7. Anti Vax Party

  10. Ah hah. So anti-vaxxers last is a blanket thing, while Labor/Green order isn’t (unless the Libs particularly love Lisa Baker for some reason).

    Do you have a link for these, or is it just hard copies? My google-fu is failing me here.

  11. So Liberals preferencing order for Greens and Labor is on a seat by seat basis. In the most important seat for it (Fremantle) Liberals preferenced Greens.

    This may have been a credible Green target but I don’t see an ALP vs Green margin being much closer than an ALP vs Liberal one now.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here