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Current Liberal MP David Hodgett has announced he won’t be contesting preselection for Croydon in 2026. You’d have to think off federal results that this seat is certainly in danger of falling to Labor with the absence of his personal vote.
@ James
IMHO this is one of two seats in Vic that Labor would have loved to win in 2022 but missed out the other being Polwarth. However, it is widely accepted that Labor will do worse in 2026 than 2022 so probably subject to boundaries Labor will only target it in their next landslide year. This seat is more Liberal friendly than Kilsyth which Labor won in 2022 due to more Pro-Liberal boundaries.
It will be great if someone calculate this seat on Federal results
@Nimalan which booths are in this seat?
@ Nether Portal
This is mostly Deakin with a small part in Aston
Following Booths
1. Tinternavle
2. Croydon North
3. Croydon North Upper
4. Croydon Hills
4. Croydon West
5. Croydon
6. Croydon Central
7. Croydon East
8. Croydon Town
9. Croydon South
10 Bayswater North (Aston)
11. Glen Park (Aston)
Note it does not include Warranwood or any booths in Ringwood.
Thanks.
Croydon PPVC is in the electorate all other Deakin/Aston PPVC are external to to this seat
@Nimalan thanks, will calculate now.
TPP (2025):
* Labor: 53.0%
* Liberal: 47.0%
TPP (2022):
* Liberal: 51.3%
* Labor: 48.7%
This means that there was a +4.3% swing to Labor in 2025 compared to 2022.
Also, if you or someone else could (if you have time) provide booth list for the WA federal seats that would be great, I said months ago that I would do them but I completely forgot about it.
Thanks Nether Portal, Much appreciated. Does this include postal votes as well. I can get the WA federal seats booths for you this afternoon which one would you like First?
@Nimalan maybe Bullwinkel since it’s the new seat?
And no this doesn’t include postals.
@ Nether Portal
Adding postals will probably drop the Labor margin by 2% so i think probably around 51%. Croydon is generally stronger than other parts of Deakin like Ringwood especially North of Maroondah highway so i assume the margin will be lower than Deakin’s 2.8% Margin but Federal Labor overperfomed the 2022 state result so i assume Croydon will be better than the narrowly Liberal win in November 2022.
I believe Sorina Grasso might give this seat another crack, should help Labor’s chances here.
I do remember someone here making a comment about someone named Grant Hutchinson being preselected for the Liberals here. It has come to fruition.
Grant Hutchinson seems to be accident prone, if they can’t win here then they’re in serious trouble for winning in 2026. If I was the Liberals I would dump the candidate and go with some else as this time round the Liberals should struggle to hold here as Labor is busy sandbagging other seats.
Definitely could see One Nation doing well through Bayswater North, Kilsyth, Croydon North and Croydon Hills as those areas are extremely anglo established and full of tradies.
@ Spacefish
See a comment i made to you in December when i said Hastie will appeal in the suburbs you correctly mentioned. There many people in such suburbs who are nationalist they may not be racist but they feel ethnic minorities should say thank you to Anglo majority and see Anglo Australian culture as the cultural template
Link below
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2028/canning2028/comment-page-1#comment-863933
@Nimalan,
I had a look at your comments and yes to your comment above there is definitely that sentiment. What is fascinating is when you look a the voice results is how strongly the Yes vote carried in Heathmont booths and then it falls off a cliff in Glen Park and Bayswater North booth.
@ Spacefish
The suburbs you correctly mentioned are streotypical Anglo middle Australia. This area is party pies. Fairy bread , Auskick and weekends at Bunnings. What i would say about Heathmont is because it is leafy i think it attracts a professional deemographic that is progressive i feel it is closer demographically to Mitcham and Blackburn which are also progressive suburbs and a bit Tealish.I think a good equivilant to Heathmont is probably the suburb of Montmorency in Eltham electorate. Bayswater North is a bit more Industrial and has warehouses etc while Kilsyth South has large blocks but attracts more tradies rather than Professionals.
Exactly, high Green vote through Heathmont and you can see that the professional demographic is starting to push through Glen Park as it’s cheaper to buy a house through there.