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Current Liberal MP David Hodgett has announced he won’t be contesting preselection for Croydon in 2026. You’d have to think off federal results that this seat is certainly in danger of falling to Labor with the absence of his personal vote.
@ James
IMHO this is one of two seats in Vic that Labor would have loved to win in 2022 but missed out the other being Polwarth. However, it is widely accepted that Labor will do worse in 2026 than 2022 so probably subject to boundaries Labor will only target it in their next landslide year. This seat is more Liberal friendly than Kilsyth which Labor won in 2022 due to more Pro-Liberal boundaries.
It will be great if someone calculate this seat on Federal results
@Nimalan which booths are in this seat?
@ Nether Portal
This is mostly Deakin with a small part in Aston
Following Booths
1. Tinternavle
2. Croydon North
3. Croydon North Upper
4. Croydon Hills
4. Croydon West
5. Croydon
6. Croydon Central
7. Croydon East
8. Croydon Town
9. Croydon South
10 Bayswater North (Aston)
11. Glen Park (Aston)
Note it does not include Warranwood or any booths in Ringwood.
Thanks.
Croydon PPVC is in the electorate all other Deakin/Aston PPVC are external to to this seat
@Nimalan thanks, will calculate now.
TPP (2025):
* Labor: 53.0%
* Liberal: 47.0%
TPP (2022):
* Liberal: 51.3%
* Labor: 48.7%
This means that there was a +4.3% swing to Labor in 2025 compared to 2022.
Also, if you or someone else could (if you have time) provide booth list for the WA federal seats that would be great, I said months ago that I would do them but I completely forgot about it.
Thanks Nether Portal, Much appreciated. Does this include postal votes as well. I can get the WA federal seats booths for you this afternoon which one would you like First?
@Nimalan maybe Bullwinkel since it’s the new seat?
And no this doesn’t include postals.
@ Nether Portal
Adding postals will probably drop the Labor margin by 2% so i think probably around 51%. Croydon is generally stronger than other parts of Deakin like Ringwood especially North of Maroondah highway so i assume the margin will be lower than Deakin’s 2.8% Margin but Federal Labor overperfomed the 2022 state result so i assume Croydon will be better than the narrowly Liberal win in November 2022.
I believe Sorina Grasso might give this seat another crack, should help Labor’s chances here.