Frome – SA 2014

IND 6.7% vs LIB

Incumbent MP
Geoff Brock, since 2009.

Geography
Central parts of South Australia. Frome covers the town of Port Pirie, the Clare and Gilbert Valleys, and areas in between.

Map of Frome's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Frome’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Frome gained central parts of Wakefield local government area, including Balaklava, from Goyder. The theoretical two-party-preferred margin changed from ALP 0.2% to Liberal 1.5%, and the Independent vs Liberal margin was cut from 7.5% to 6.7%.

History
Frome has existed in three incarnations, the first as a two-member district from 1884 to 1902, and then from 1938 to 1977 and from 1993 until today. The seat was Labor from 1938 to 1970, and Liberal from 1970 until 2008.

When Frome was restored in 1993, it was won by the Liberal Party’s Rob Kerin.

Kerin served as a minister in the Brown and Olsen ministries from 1995 to 2001, and in 2001 became Liberal leader and Premier six months before the 2002 election.

The 2002 election produced a hung parliament, and Kerin was unsuccessful in forming a majority.

Kerin continued to lead the Liberal Party in opposition, and led them to a landslide defeat at the 2006 state election. Kerin resigned as Liberal leader shortly after the election. He announced his retirement in 2007, and resigned early in late 2008, triggering the 2009 Frome by-election.

Port Pirie mayor Geoff Brock ran as an independent at the by-election, the main rival to Liberal candidate Terry Boylan.

Boylan topped the primary vote, with 39.2%, with the ALP’s John Rohde second on 26.1%. Brock was third on 23.6%.

While such a result would have made it impossible in most cases for a third-placed candidate to win, Brock received strong preferences from minor candidates, and overtook the ALP by 30 votes, allowing him to win comfortably on Labor preferences.

Boylan and Rohde again ran against Brock in 2010, but he topped the primary vote, outpolling the Liberal candidate by 1.2%, and allowing him to win comfortably on Labor preferences.

Candidates
Sitting independent MP Geoff Brock is running for re-election. The Liberal Party is running Kendall Jackson. The ALP is running Marcus Connelly. The Greens are running Rob Scott. Family First are running Wendy Joyce.

Assessment
Frome is held by Brock by a healthy margin, and he should benefit from a strengthened personal vote, considering that he had only held the seat for just over a year when he last faced re-election. On the other hand, the Liberal Party is resurgent and may strengthen their position in Frome.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Geoff Brock IND 7,965 37.7 +37.7
Terry Boylan LIB 7,713 36.5 -12.0
John Rohde ALP 3,900 18.5 -22.0
Joy O’Brien GRN 644 3.1 -0.7
John McComb FF 561 2.7 -2.5
Max Van Dissel RAH 328 1.6 +1.6

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Geoff Brock IND 12,135 57.5
Terry Boylan LIB 8,976 42.5
Polling places in Frome at the 2010 state election. East in red, North in green, Port Pirie in yellow, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Frome at the 2010 state election. East in red, North in green, Port Pirie in yellow, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Those in the Port Pirie local area have been grouped together, making up over 40% of ordinary votes cast. Those polling places in the Clare and Gilbert Valleys have been grouped as East. Polling places in the Northern Areas council area, and in the Port Pirie council area outside of the town itself have been grouped as North. Those in Barunga West and Wakefield have been grouped as south.

Independent MP Geoff Brock won a two-candidate-preferred majority in two areas: 54% in the north, and a massive 81.3% in Port Pirie. The Liberal Party won majorities of 64.8% in the East and 63.2% in the South.

The ALP came third, with a vote ranging from 14.1% in the north to 20% in Port Pirie.

Voter group ALP % IND 2CP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
Port Pirie 19.95 81.33 6,802 42.58
East 17.90 35.18 4,414 27.63
South 16.30 36.81 2,279 14.27
North 14.12 53.95 2,478 15.51
Other votes 20.44 55.94 5,138
Two-candidate-preferred votes in Frome at the 2010 state election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in Frome at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in Frome at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in Frome at the 2010 state election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in Port Pirie at the 2010 state election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in Port Pirie at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in Port Pirie at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in Port Pirie at the 2010 state election.

4 COMMENTS

  3. My prediction: Hard to call, Geoff Brock has been elected twice and his well established, particularly in the Port Pirie section of the electorate, although a general change of government mood could see him go.

  4. This is my hardest pick – Brock to hold. He won the primary vote last time, but the Liberals actually led in a majority of booths – the strong popularity of Brock in the Port Pirie area was enough to win him the seat. We’ll have to see how strong Brock is in the Clare Valley and surrounds. I also suspect that he’ll face the same trickery that the Liberals have used against Independents ever since Oakeshott and Windsor put Gillard in the Lodge in 2010.

Comments are closed.