Dunstan – SA 2014

LIB 4.8%

Incumbent MP
Steven Marshall, Member for Norwood since 2010.

Geography
Eastern suburbs. Dunstan covers the suburbs of Beulah Park, College Park, Evandale, Firle, Hackney, Joslin, Kent Town, Marden, Maylands, Payneham South, Royston Park, St Morris, St Peters, Stepney, Trinity Gardens and Vale Park, and parts of Kensington, Klemzig and Payneham. Most of the electorate lies in the Norwood Payneham and St Peters council area.

Redistribution
The electorate of Norwood was renamed as Dunstan, with no changes to the electorate’s boundaries.

History
The electorate of Norwood was first created at the 1938 election. For most of that period, the seat has been held by the ALP. The Liberal Party has won the seat at only five elections, and never for more than term in a row.

From 1938 to 1953, the ALP’s Frank Nieass and the Liberal and Country League’s Albert Moir alternated in the seat, switching back and forth over four terms.

In 1953, Moir was replaced by the ALP’s Don Dunstan. Dunstan served as Deputy Premier from 1965 to 1967, and then as Premier from 1967 to 1968 and from 1970 to 1979, when he retired from Parliament.

The ALP’s Greg Crafter won the March 1979 Norwood by-election. He lost the seat at the September 1979 general election to the Liberal Party’s Frank Webster.

That result was invalidated in court, and Crafter won the seat back at a 1980 by-election.

Crafter held the seat throughout the 1980s, until the 1993 election.

In 1993, the Liberal Party’s John Cummins won the seat, and held it until 1997.

Vini Ciccarello won Norwood back for the ALP in 1997. She was re-elected in 2002 and 2006.

The Liberal Party’s Steven Marshall won the seat at the 2010 election off Ciccarello.

Marshall was promoted to the Liberal Party frontbench in December 2011. In October 2012, he was elected deputy leader as part of a challenge to Liberal leader Isobel Redmond.

Redmond resigned in January 2013, and in February Marshall was elected as Liberal leader.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal leader Steven Marshall is running for re-election. The ALP is running Jo Chapley. The Greens are running Michael Donato. Dignity for Disability is running Rick Neagle.

Assessment
Dunstan is a marginal electorate, but with the sitting MP leading the Liberal Party into the election it should remain in the Liberal column.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Steven Marshall LIB 9,844 46.3 +5.7
Vini Ciccarello ALP 7,184 33.8 -8.1
Katie McCusker GRN 2,498 11.8 +3.0
Philip Harding RAH 489 2.3 +2.3
Paul Theofanous FF 413 1.9 -0.7
Rick Neagle D4D 392 1.8 +0.5
David Egge G4C 258 1.2 +1.2
Pamela Anders FLT 177 0.8 +0.8

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Steven Marshall LIB 11,654 54.8 +8.8
Vini Ciccarello ALP 9,601 45.2 -8.8
Polling places in Dunstan at the 2010 state election. Central in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Dunstan at the 2010 state election. Central in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

The Liberal Party won a majority in all three areas, ranging from 52.5% in the north to 56.5% in the centre of the seat.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 8.7% in the north to 13.9% in the south.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Central 10.93 56.52 7,551 35.53
South 13.91 54.38 5,235 24.63
North 8.72 52.50 3,659 17.21
Other votes 13.01 54.43 4,810 22.63
Two-party-preferred votes in Dunstan at the 2010 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Dunstan at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Dunstan at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Dunstan at the 2010 state election.

3 COMMENTS

  1. The liberal’s biggest mistake was changing leaders to Steve Marshall. Marshall has been unengaged with the electorate since he took over, in circumstances which should see him trumping labor rather then marginally infront 53/47. He has given no reason to change government. This isn’t as close as the federal pendulum was and the liberals will have to work to win the election unlike in NSW and QLD.

  2. If the Libs win the election, this seat will have been held by two premiers from different political parties… that can’t be too common. Bert Hawke (Labor) and James Mitchell (Nationalist) were both premiers of WA and members for Northam. Any other examples?

Comments are closed.