Thuringowa – Queensland 2024

KAP have announced their candidate for this seat at Clynton Hawks. Clynton Hawks ran under the KAP banner at the 2022 Federal Election in the seat of Herbert (which overlaps the three Townsville Seats). Clynton hass been raising his profile organising rallies which included one a last month near where the Premier was holding a meeting and the current MP (Aaron Harper – ALP) also turned up for a short spiel at the crowd.

Full article here: https://kap.org.au/kap-sends-in-hawks-to-drive-change-for-thuringowa/

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I was looking into Thuringowa… and honestly… North Queensland politics feels a little like Tasmania with how similar names pop up. Looking at the results and history of this seat and surrounding ones begins like this: Thuringowa is the KAP’s best chance of the 3 Townsville seats with 16.12% in the 2020 Election (Townsville 11.27% and Mundingburra 12.16%). Thuringowa was almost won by KAP back in 2012 when they burst onto the scene with 30.13% primary and on 2CP lost 48.62% to the LNP’s 51.38%. The LNP candidate was Sam Cox, who was a one-termer MP in the Newman government before loosing to Aaron Harper [ALP] the current MP in 2015.

Sam Cox went on to contest the 2017 Election in Burdekin for ONP and then 2020 Election in Burdekin for KAP (and as an Independent for Townsville Mayor in 2020). In that same 2017 election that Aaron Harper was elected for Thuringowa, was Jeff Knuth as the ONP Candidate. Jeff Knuth was the ONP MP for Burdekin 1998-2001, re-contesting as an IND 2004 and was the KAP candidate for Hinchinbrook, narrowly loosing 46.37% to LNP’s 53.63%. Oh, and Jeff’s brother is the current KAP MP for Hill, Shane Knuth!! And Clynton Hawks ran as the NQF candidate in Townsville for the 2020 Election.

You just can’t make this stuff up!
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As for prospects in this seat:
In 2020 I was a little bullish in my predictions here as I really thought the ALP was going to loose at least 1, if not, all 3 seats Townsville seats. In very simple terms, what saved the ALP was a collapse in the ONP vote, with people coming back to ALP & LNP in even amounts in Townsville & Mundingburra. The vote came back more-so for the LNP in Thuringwoa, but only made a small dent in the 2PP. All 3 seats have similar stories with primary vote (ALP & LNP both in 30%s), seat margin (3-4% for each) and primary vote differential between LNP & ALP (6% Thuringowa, 3% Townsville, 6% Mundingburra).

Looking at the results in Herbert (Federal 2022) and current polling, you’d think at least one will be gone, and LNP would need all 3 to really start their path to Government. Townsville seems the best on paper but I’ll put my heart on Thuringowa to be the one that falls. [EDIT: Thuringowa has the lowest total % for the major party vote out of the 3 townsville seats + burdekin.] ALP have been known as good margin campaigners and with just under a year to go, anything can happen, this is one seat to watch. {That’s my 5 cents worth.}

What are the odds that KAP will pick up this seat?

It depends on whether it can win over Labor and ONP voters and even win over LNP voters. A 20% swing to KAP on primaries isn’t out of the ordinary. It happened in Hinchinbrook in 2020 and in Hill in 2017. A strong KAP campaign could force the LNP to run dead in Thuringowa and focus on lower hanging fruit that are ALP vs LNP contests.

@Votante not much because it’s an urban seat. KAP does better in the outback and in rural areas. The biggest city with a strong KAP vote is Mount Isa.

While it may be the best chance of a KAP gain in Townsville I still highly doubt it. They’d get Cook before this.

I think the KAP candidate for this seat is very well known due to his role in organising youth crime rallies. So will be interesting to see the swing, especially with youth crime being such a hot topic in Townsville.

There is no way on earth the LNP will run dead in Thuringowa when it’s a Labor seat that they have a credible chance of winning.

Agree Wilson, the result in this seat with a strong KAP candidate could be like 2012 which was a 3-way tie between them, Labor and the LNP.

It could end up splitting votes in a three-way contest and fracturing the vote of one or both majors.

@Nether Portal, I agree that KAP does better in large, rural seats. The KAP candidate has a high-profile and as mentioned above, he has a big presence at youth crime rallies in Townsville. I do see him doing well and scoring a swing but may fall short of victory.

It will be interesting to see where KAP target resources. Unions or even Labor themselves may be able to convince them to run hard in Burdekin and Whitsunday to disrupt the LNP’s path back to government. That may also be the case for the Townsville 3 if Labor see them as lost causes, but I would think they would try hang on there. I’m not sure which seats the LNP would be hoping for KAP to dislodge Labor in, instead of doing it themselves.

Clynton Hawks has been dumped! Article is behind a paywall so not sure of reason. Stupid move by the KAP and now guaranteeing an LNP win.

https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=CMWEB_WRE170_MG_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.couriermail.com.au%2Fnews%2Ftownsville%2Fkick-in-guts-thuringowa-candidate-clynton-hawks-dropped-from-katter-australias-party%2Fnews-story%2F17c35aaa79bcac49c2e9deb0204fbfff&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=ULTRALOW-Segment-2-SCORE

@AA the LNP were always winning this. Also, as a subscriber I can say the reason was because the KAP apparently found a better candidate.

I recommend using https://archive.md to bypass paywalls. Here’s the link to this article, without the paywall: https://archive.md/EGQnO

Yes, but the KAP put up a serious competition with Clynton Hawks. The LNP would’ve had to work especially hard to stop too many votes going to the KAP. I think it would’ve been a three-way race with Clynton in the mix. Especially because of his popularity as a youth crime rally organiser.

I put a link to a paywall-free version of the article but the comment is still awaiting moderation. The article explains it a bit further.

All good, thanks. Will be interesting to see

It’s been reviewed. Feel free to have a look.

Again, to bypass paywalls I highly recommend using that site. Although it can take a few minutes to load if the webpage isn’t archived (it’s a bit like the Wayback Machine in that it archives webpages), it’s worth it since it completely removes the paywall for all Australian news sites.

Predictions:

Primaries:
LNP: 42.0% (+11.6%)
Labor: 23.6% (–13.2%)
KAP: 17.0% (+0.9%)
One Nation: 9.4% (–0.4%)
Greens: 5.2% (+0.2%)

TPP:
LNP: 61.2% (+14.4%)
Labor: 38.9% (–14.4%)

The swing against Labor here will be big, matching the broader trend showing a massive swing against Labor in regional areas. My predictions above show the One Nation vote slightly dropping and the KAP vote slightly increasing, as well as the Greens vote slightly increasing. However, the most noticeable change is the amount of Labor voters casting their votes for the LNP.

Crisafulli, although currently Gold Coast-based, will have more appeal in Townsville (and in North Queensland in general) than Newman as he was born and raised in Townsville (he also supports the North Queensland Cowboys in the NRL), served as a councillor for the Townsville City Council and was the member for Mundingburra from 2012 to 2015.

@Nether Portal – thanks for the link to the article
@AA – thanks for breaking this news. I am shocked at this as I agree with you, the KAP really had a chance with Clynton Hawks. Outside the 4 KAP MPs, he was their highest profile candidate, with his profile being built up during his Herbert election run for KAP in 2022 Federal Election, his current run, his advocacy and previous state run (NQF Party – 2020 Townsville).

The article has a comment from Mr Hawks that alludes to him running still, but under a different banner. The key line being, “he’d (Clynton) spent five years building up this election, and wasn’t going to pack up his ambitions just yet, telling residents they should “watch this space”.” If he runs as an IND or with ONP, it could still have a significant impact on this seat. Anyone else up for a 2017 Hinchinbrook style result?

I think KAP is taking a gamble but it looks like they’re serious about this seat. Is there a possibility that Clynton will run in a neighbouring non-KAP seat?

If KAP wins a seat or 2 in Townsville, Crisafulli will have no choice but to promise a NQ statehood referendum (And the feds as well since I think it also has to be up to them) but KAP wants NQ statehood.

I don’t see the LNP getting in the way as it means more senators for them. But Labor may be disadvantaged.

Yes I agree that Hawks was the best chance for the KAP to win another seat.

@Politics_Obsessed and @Votante both of you could be right. I think there’s two options here – either he runs in Thuringowa as an independent or for ONP, or he’ll run for the KAP in another seat. I’m not actually sure whether he’s quit as a member of the KAP or not.

Hawks has been replying to people on FB, who still want him as an candidate, saying ” stay tuned more to come”. So there’s a good chance he’s chose one of the three options.

Ok apologies for the continuous commenting, but Clynton has given a heart reaction to a FB comment saying “would love you to be a One Nation candidate”. So could definitely be a chance.