Murrumba – Queensland 2024

Miles does NOT come across as charismatic and will lose the state election should he become leader which is almost certain.

Well he’s confirmed leader now, I think I dodged a bullet by moving down to Victoria earlier this year. As a member of the Left, be may stop further swings to the Greens. But being too close to the unions won’t help stop bleeding votes to the LNP.

It’s funny because “Murrumba” used to be my seat when it contained North Lakes before the 2017 redistribution. This was also Frank Nicklins seat, but I believe it was Elimbah, Lanesborough, Woodford at that time.

@daniel but you wont here anyone complain how two men ousted a woman from the top job and stopped another woman from running for it. if this was the lnp the feminisits would be rioting for weeks

I doubt the public care which faction the leader of a party is from, if the policies remain the same. Also, I’m unsure if either the left or right factions of the Labor Party are worth the name any more. After all, the right faction’s Bill Shorten took a more reformist policy platform to an election, whereas the left faction’s Anthony Albanese had a less reformist agenda.

All of which is to say, there’s only one way Miles can stem the bleeding from Labor – appear competent. Ideology won’t do it.

@wilson Albanese just wrapped up the same policies in a different wrapping instead of saying it would cost money they said you’d save money. So youd vote for them.

John, no, that’s patently not true. Albanese dropped the changes to negative gearing and franking credit imputations that Shorten took to the previous election.

@only because they were electoral poison. They really still want to do it. This isn’t a govt that won in a landslide they barely got a majority and got it because the coalition was aging and the problems were starting to build up.same with the NSW govt. Minna didn’t even get a majority. Don’t be surprised if the coalition return to power next elections

John, so you admit that it wasn’t true. Glad we got there in the end.

Just because they aren’t implementing it doesn’t mean it isn’t part of their secret policy agenda that they want. Labor learners the lesson from bill shortens and the republic referendum defeats. That is give too much detail and people won’t vote for it. However if you tell them your not going to do it they will and then you can do it later

Miles being from the left won’t help with Greens voters. Miles has been much more hostile to the Greens than Palaszczuk was and his “attack dog” image won’t help with small-l/teal voters in Maiwar, Moggill and Clayfield.

I don’t think Labor can win the election now. Palaszczuk managed to come across as warm and compassionate without coming across as weak. This is incredibly difficult, especially for female politicians in our media environment. If they wanted to pivot to a more “blokey” Image then Dick was the better bet especially given that he’s a North Queensland based MP. If they wanted to make further inroads to the Gold and Sunshine coasts they should have gone with Fentiman.

Miles seems oddly… “whiny”? Steve vs Dave is already giving me vibes of Chris vs Chris from NZ, and we all know how that went for Labor.

Labor needs to start sandbagging hard. They can hang on but they will need Green preferences and active Green campaigns in SEQ, and they should only attack Greens over things the Greens are proud of (e.g. opposing coal).

Just noticed I changed my opinion mid post. It’s going to be an uphill battle for Labor and I’m not betting on their success but if Bligh could hang on in 2009 then I can’t rule out Labor hanging on and there are strategies they can follow.

John
Milton Dick is not a North Queensland MP – he is member for Woodridge in Outer Brisbane.

My mistake, I confused Cameron Dick and Curtis Pitt.

To 1st John, the same would also be true for the Coalition. John Hewson in his 1993 ‘Fightback’ campaign outlined a long list of items including GST which were controversial at the time, and he lost what should have been a winnable election.

John Howard learnt that lesson and in his 1996 campaign left out a lot of Hewson’s previous pledges, which enabled the Coalition to win easily. That didn’t stop him from introducing measures like GST years later, which he claimed were ‘necessary’.

Likewise, Tony Abbott also pledged to keep many things the same in his 2013 campaign and later copped a lot of criticism for proposed changes in the 2014 budget which he eventually scrapped.

Steven Miles won’t save much furniture nor minimise electoral losses like Rudd in 2013 federally. There’s the growing ‘it’s time’ factor and the piling baggage that’s weighing down the Labor brand. Miles was also close to Palaszczuk so he’s hardly a fresh face. At best, Labor can hold onto most seats but lose the statewide 2PP.

Being from the left faction make Labor fend off the Greens. Honing in on bread-and-butter issues like infrastructure and cost-of-living relief will. It’s how Dan Andrews minimised losses to both the Greens and the Liberals in 2022. Albanese is from the left faction but federal Labor lost Grififth and lost ground to the Greens in Richmond and Macnamara.

Thoughts on Steven Miles losing his on seat? I bet he’s probably shitting himself over this. His margin is 11.33% which is possible to overcome given that the expectation is an LNP landslide.

Cameron Dick would likely become the next Labor leader as I expect him to hold on in Woodridge.

I think it’s highly possible because Steven Miles doesn’t give a fuck about his job anymore. He even admitted he expected to get bad results in the by-elections and even said it’s almost impossible for him to win the state election yet he hasn’t changed shit. Apologies for the language but I can’t wait until I can vote him out in October.

He definitely could lose Murrumba at the general election, but I really don’t expect him to stick around long either way.

Based on that latest poll, Murrumba would seem to be at the top end where Labor MPs will be in trouble. All will be clear much closer to the day but either Labor may need to divert resources to save Steven Miles or Murrumba voters will just turn on him as they have a special opportunity.

Depending on which faction has a majority, either Cameron Dick or Shannon Fentiman would be Labor leader after the election. Both hold very safe Labor seats. Leadership just depends on whether the Left or Forum has a factional domination.

I’m sensing Cameron Dick or Shannon Fentiman will be the next leader. They probably stayed away from the Premier’s job as it is a poisoned chalice.

I don’t think the LNP will be targeting Labor seats on 10%+ margins.

You have to ask, what was the point of Miles running for the party leadership if he was ready to throw in the towel so soon? It’s a lot of effort to go to for a pretty underwhelming outcome. I don’t think Dick or Fentiman would have given up without a fight, they’d have both battled hard to change the government’s reputation, even if it didn’t end up changing the overall election result.

Votante, neither Dick nor Fentiman actively didn’t want the top job at the end of 2023. Dick realised his faction didn’t have the numbers in the party room, so he made a deal with Miles to be deputy leader. Fentiman then realised she didn’t have the numbers to defeat Miles and Dick combined so she conceded. They both wanted the leadership then and will still want it after the election.

@Votante The currently expected uniform swing is 9.2%. They absolutely will be targeting Labor seats on 10%+ margins, even if they don’t win them all they’ll still target them.