Townsville – Queensland 2015

LNP 4.83%

Incumbent MP
John Hathaway, since 2012.

Geography
Central Townsville. The seat covers the Townsville CBD and the suburbs of Castle Hill, Garbutt, Mount Louisa and Bohle, as well as Magnetic Island and Palm Island.

History
The seat of Townsville has existed continuously since 1970, and previously existed from 1878 to 1960.

The seat has been dominated by the Labor Party for most of the twentieth century, although Labor domination has occasionally been punctuated by Coalition victories.

The ALP had held the seat for all but three years from 1915 to 1960, but after the seat was restored in 1972 it was won by the Liberal Party’s Norman Scott-Young. He held it until 1983.

The 1983 election was triggered by the breakdown in the coalition between Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s National Party and the Liberal Party, and a majority of Liberal MPs lost their seats, including Scott-Young.

Ken McElligott won Townsville for the ALP, but three years later lost to the National Party’s Tony Burreket.

Burreket lost to the ALP’s Ken Davies in 1989. In 1992, Davies moved to the neighbouring seat of Mundingburra. He retained Mundingburra by a bare 16-vote margin. The result was overturned in the courts in 1996. The ALP decided to replace Davies as the ALP candidate, and he ran as an independent. The Liberal Party won the race, and resulted in the ALP losing its parliamentary majority and the National-Liberal coalition forming a new government.

Geoff Smith was elected to Townsville for the ALP in 1992, and held it for two terms until 1998. He was succeeded in 1998 by Mike Reynolds. Reynolds served as a minister from 2004 to 2006 and as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 2006 to 2009, when he retired.

Mandy Johnstone was elected to Townsville in 2009 for the ALP. In 2012, Johnstone was defeated by LNP candidate John Hathaway.

Candidates

• Alan Birrell (Palmer United)
• John Hathaway (Liberal National)
• Leanne Rissman (One Nation)
• Gail Hamilton (Greens)
• Michael Punshon (Family First)
• Scott Stewart (Labor)

Assessment
Prior to the 2012 election, Townsville was usually a Labor-leaning marginal seat, and had been Labor-held since 1989. It won’t take much of a swing for Labor to win back Townsville, and they will need to win seats like Townsville if they are to rebuild their position across Queensland and become a more viable opposition, or even form government.

2012 election result

2012 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Booths in Townsville have been divided into four parts. Most polling places are in central Townsville, on the mainland. These booths have been split into “Central”, “South” and “West”. The “Central” area covers the Townsville city centre. In addition, a small number of booths on Palm Island and Magnetic Island have been grouped as “Islands”.

The Liberal National Party topped the primary vote in all four areas, with a vote ranging from 35.7% in the south to 42.5% in central Townsville. On a two-party-preferred basis, the LNP vote ranged from 52.7% in the south to 56.8% in central Townsville.

Labor came second, with a vote ranging from 27.2% on the islands to 30% in the south.

The Katter’s Australian Party vote ranged from 17.8% in the centre to 25% in the west.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.