LNP 9.52%
Incumbent MP
Reg Gulley, since 2012.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Murrumba covers southern parts of Moreton Bay local government area. It covers the suburbs of Deception Bay, Rothwell, Mango Hill and Griffin, and parts of Burpengary and Narangba, all suburbs on the northern fringe of Brisbane.
History
The seat of Murrumba has existed continuously since 1912. It was held by the Country/National Party from 1918 to 1977, and has been held by the ALP continuously since 1977.
The seat was held by Frank Nicklin from 1932 to 1950, when he moved to the new seat of Landsborough. He served as Premier of Queensland from 1957 to 1968.
First David Nicholson and then Des Frawley were elected as Country Party MPs in Murrumba. In 1977 Frawley lost to the ALP’s Joe Kruger. Kruger held the seat until his retirement in 1986.
Dean Wells won Murrumba in 1986. He had previously served as federal Member for Petrie for 18 months from 1983 to 1984. Wells served as a minister in two successive Labor state governments: from 1989 to 1995 and from 1998 to 2004. Wells held Murrumba for nine terms from 1986 until 2012.
In 2012, Wells was defeated by LNP candidate Reg Gulley, who won with a 16.7% swing.
Candidates
- Simone Dejun (Greens)
- Chris Whiting (Labor)
- Reg Gulley (Liberal National)
- Ray Hutchinson (Family First)
Assessment
Prior to the last election, Murrumba was considered to be a reasonably safe Labor seat, and Labor will be hoping to regain the seat.
2012 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Reg Gulley | Liberal National | 14,040 | 49.11 | +12.04 |
| Dean Wells | Labor | 9,267 | 32.42 | -18.38 |
| Paul Edwards | Katter’s Australian | 2,263 | 7.92 | +7.92 |
| Sally Vincent | Family First | 1,622 | 5.67 | +1.07 |
| Rodney Blair | Greens | 1,394 | 4.88 | -2.65 |
2012 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Reg Gulley | Liberal National | 15,465 | 59.52 | +16.73 |
| Dean Wells | Labor | 10,516 | 40.48 | -16.73 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Murrumba have been split into four parts. Three of these areas are named after key suburbs: Burpengary, Deception Bay and Kippa-Ring. Those booths in the south were also grouped together.
The LNP topped the poll in all four areas, but polled slightly better in Burpengary and the South, with a majority of the primary vote and estimated to have won over 60% of the two-party-preferred vote.
Deception Bay was the weakest area for the LNP and the strongest for Labor.
The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| South | 55.96 | 28.17 | 65.30 | 7,470 | 26.13 |
| Deception Bay | 41.96 | 37.41 | 53.03 | 7,124 | 24.92 |
| Kippa-Ring | 47.57 | 33.50 | 58.33 | 3,582 | 12.53 |
| Burpengary | 53.00 | 28.57 | 63.64 | 2,730 | 9.55 |
| Other votes | 48.44 | 32.79 | 58.94 | 7,680 | 26.87 |
Murrumba is my local electorate.
No material distributed by any candidate as at 7 December.
ALP have held street stalls along Anzac Av on Saturday morning a few weekend’s ago.THis is in the DEception Bay area ie ALP are concentrating effort on thoise areas where they diod best last election.
ALP candidate Chris Whiting was a local COuncillor until he made the mistake of running for Mayor. Whiting was well liked and was hard working. If he had stood as a COUncillor I have no doubt he would have retained Division 2.
IN 2 1/2 years as local member I have never set eyes on LNP Reg Gulley although he has imitated Wyatt Roy and is holding scheduled street meetings.
REg Gulley replaced long serving ALP Member Dean WElls in 2012. ALP had held seat since 1986. Therefore ALp have held this seatr for 92% of last 28 Years. SEat is predominantly
I’m not so sure Reg Gulley will lose this one, although Chris Whiting will easily win the Deception Bay end of the Electorate and possibly do ok in Burpengary East, I don’t think his name recognition extends to North Lakes/Mango Hill or Griffin. Remembering Rothwell overwhelmingly votes for the LNP lately, so the swing areas (of which both candidates are focusing) is North Lakes and Mango Hill. The LNP only just won those booths at last year’s Federal Election, so this seat will definitely be one to watch.
Palmer has taken down his Bruce Highway Bill Board just as election is hotting up. Is he in the process of winding down or just diverting resources to seats he intends to stand in?.
I have seen no activity by LNP’s Gulley visible other than his web site. In 2 1/2 Years I have never set eyes on man. PRP’s comments about Chris Whiting and Mango Hill are accurate. North Lakes residents are generally new to area and probably will not favour ALP. 2012 election they voted 57.23% & 56.77% in favour of LNP. Number of residents will have changed but demographics will not have.
I do not think anyone would be saying that there will be a swing of less than 6% against LNP. in Queensland in 2015. Therefore it is likely that Gulley will be on approximately 50% in his strongest booths. In Deception Bay Gulley got 36.44 %.
Gulley was dependent upon 108 Green Votes, 558 FF Votes and 759 Katter Votes to be elected last time. He can count on losing one of those Katter Votes.
Even the LNP Front FF Preferences leaked to ALP & Katter. This time no matter what LNP apologists say the ALP is not on the nose in the same away that it was in 2012. Votes for ALP will be higher (my estimate 6- 10% with amuch higher leakage to vote exhaustion and slightly higher leakages from minors to ALP)
Consequently 2PP result in Murrumba will be no higher than 53% to LNP and may be as low as 45% LNP/ 55% ALP.
Murrumba is certainly a seat to watch on election night.
Regardless of who I vote for Gulley will be below Whiting in Preferences. The only way he can change this is to lead a charge to dump Newman.
Gulley has a huge uphill battle to retain this seat and Chris Whiting’s selection as ALP candidate makes the task harder. In 3 Months campaigning I have met Whiting in 21/2 YEars as my representative I have never set eyes on the man. HE did ring me following muy complaint about his failure to vote as he promised.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
These sorts of seats around these margins (I include seats like Cairns in this too) because they could be the difference between the ALP regaining government, albeit unlikely, and them missing out. I don’t think Labor will get back into government yet, I don’t think enough people have forgiven them. This is the sort of seat Labor will have a big win in when they are given the keys to the state again. Not sure it’s their time again just yet. Maybe 2018?
This is my local electorate and I feel it is one that Labor has a very strong chance of regaining at the election at the end of the month.
The ALP candidate Chris Whiting has good recognition in the Deception Bay end of the electorate, as he was a very effective local councillor for the area for so long.
Rothwell is difficult to categorise as it is geographically, and in the eyes of many in the community part of Redcliffe which swung back – hard – to Labor’s Yvette D’Ath at the recent by-election.
Griffin and Mango Hill, although growing are traditionally Labor area’s.
The key to Murrumba is North Lakes. At the 2013 election it did go to the LNP, but not as strongly as many were expecting. To retain the seat Reg Gulley will need a massive win in North Lakes, which given the high proportion of teachers, nurses and other public servants who live in the suburb, doesn’t seem all that likely.
As mentioned in a previous post Reg Gulley has been little seen or heard in the electorate, and on those few occasions that he is seen it is holding a ‘mobile office’ by the side of the road in a visible spot that it is all but impossible for people to stop and talk to him at!
On the other hand Chris Whiting has been out on the ground quite a bit, he is to date the only politician to have ever knocked on my door, and a friend in Griffin has said that a volunteer on Chris’ campaign knocked on their door as well.
Om way into office this morning virtually no evidence of an election taking place. LNP have two huge Bill Boards well sited but no evidence of troops on ground from either party. ON way home coming through Redcliffe. Redcliffe ALP Candidate Yvonne D’Ath had signs out and a few kilometres up the road LNP Candidate had a series of a bout 6 to 10 A Frame Corflutes out on Footpath.
Still appears to be an election based on money rather than active participation by members.
I’ve noticed quite a decent showing by Chris Whiting volunteers over the last few days. They have the Rothwell Roundabout covered on Saturday, and for the last couple of mornings have been on Anzac Ave Mango Hill – seems that their ground offensive is heating up.
Haven’t really seen much of Reg Gulley or members of his team, although I did hear that there was a couple of them near the Westfield late last week.
I note that this morning, the last day for nominations that the ABC has taken down the Family First candidate for this seat. Be interesting to see if anyone else throws in a last minute nomination before they close in a few hours.
My guess is a two-party race, or even a 3-party race with Family First favours Chris Whiting & the ALP quite a bit.
Addressed letters arrived yesterday via Australia Post from both ALP and LNP seeking Postal Votes. A pamphlet from ALP in letterbox. What is standing out this election I that candidates are paying for services Bill boards, Mail Delivery rather than relying on Party members to walk the streets. Very little party activity by any party.
Chris Whiting’s team were out on D-Bay Road Tuesday morning.
Gulley LNP seems more worried in his letter about minor parties than ALP. IN this case I think he is wrong. HIs threat is CHris Whiting. I am not sure why with only Green’s and FF competing. Does this mean that letter was even centrally written with just a few words from local candidate plonked in..
MY prediction Whiting will pick up this seat.
As I can not vote for Katter or DLP FF will get my vote but my preference will be to ALP with LNP 3rd and Greens last.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
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Reg GUlley has finally managed to get up a couple of Corflutes. I inspected Pre poll station this morning ALP & LNP only ones on site. Greens had chair, Corflutes but no staff. FF not visible whatsoever.
Interestingly I voted at City Hall Yesterday and they printed the Ballot Papers on the spot. No doubt Newman found that closing GOPRINT and SDS has consequences that he had not thought about. Hopefully he has put in permanent power supplies at all polling booths.
We are in Storm season here and it is likely that somewhere power will go down.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
There has certainly been an increase in on the ground activity over the last few days. Yesterday morning Chris Whiting’s team had Anzac Ave all but painted red from the roundabout at Rothwell pretty much all the way to the Bruce Highway… The only LNP signs were positioned right next to a set of signs at Mango Hill, where I’m pretty sure that I saw Chris himself at. It strikes me as pretty poor form on whoever’s part it was to set up right next to someone else, my guess it was the lady from Reg’s team as Chris’ team had the better position right on the corner.
When shopping at North Lakes on the weekend I saw a truck spruiking for Chris and there’s been at least one scooter billboard doing the rounds as well. Labor are certainly winning the ground war, it just seems that Chris Whiting & Labor want it more.
Gulley has managed to get a Corflute up in East Burpengary. Mind you this is on a piece of semi-public land. So still no one prepared to allow on own land although there may be someone off the min road with a sign.
Greens candidate as the result of reading my comments on Tally Room had the get up and go to contact me re why I put her last. This means that I have had as much contact with Greens Candidate (presumably endorsed a few weeks ago) as I have had with Gulley over the last three years with him having access to thousands of dollars. The difference between them is that Gulley might of got my preference as he did in 2012 whereas the Greens have as much chance as a snow ball in hell of getting anywhere other than last unless a Communist or NAZI stands. Maybe next time LNP should get professional campaign advice from Simone Dejun rather than relying on their current team.
I appreciated Simone Dejun’s get up and go even if I find her policies a complete anathema.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
Respected Chris a lot when he was the local councillor, he was the patron for our fishing club and always showed up to events. Made the mistake of running for Labor last time around when everyone new they were going to get a kicking, probably did it to “pay his dues” with the party more than anything else.
A Lot of people from the fishing club helped him out then, I suspect he will still have similar personal following, nit just the party hacks helping him out on the ground.
this is the sort of seat Labor can win and still miss out on Govt…. likely Labor win
Chris Whiting had two A Frame Sets of Corflutes out on D Bay RD and Anzac AV with volunteers manning same. No sign of LNP other than new Bill Board on Bruce Highway attacking the possibility of a hung parliament. Why is it that LNP no longer has volunteers?
It again seems that the only way they see to win elections is to spend money and pay contractors to do what in part their members did in the past. Sounds a bit like privatisation sell off the assets and then pay some Chinese company to do what previously we did ourselves.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
I went into work on the Western side of the highway today. The campaigning by LNP candidate Grimwade in Morayfield and West Burpengary is intense. Corflutes on houses on wheelie Bins on fences and on roadsides. You would not think that Murrumba and Morayfield will probably be the same result.
This contrasts with inactivity in East Burpengary by LNP.
Whiting’s team were out again on at Anzac Av & D Bay Rd intersection. FF now have a corflute up outside the Pre-poll station.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au