LNP 5.57%
Incumbent MP
Darren Grimwade, since 2012.
Geography
South-East Queensland. The seat of Morayfield lies in Moreton Bay local government area between Brisbane and Caboolture. It covers Morayfield and parts of Caboolture, Burpengary and Narangba.
History
The seat of Morayfield was newly created at the 2009 election. It was won by Labor candidate Mark Ryan.
In 2012, Labor’s Mark Ryan was defeated by LNP candidate Darren Grimwade.
Candidates
- Stephen Beck (Independent)
- Mark Ryan (Labor)
- Bill Rogan (Palmer United)
- Andrew Tyrrell (Independent)
- Darren Grimwade (Liberal National)
- Paul Costin (Greens)
- Jon Eaton (Family First)
Assessment
Morayfield is a relatively new seat with very little history, which makes it hard to look at historical trends. The seat was created in the 2009 redistribution with a notional Labor margin of 60.7%, which dropped to 59.1% in 2009. If there is a general pro-Labor swing back to the levels normally expected in Queensland politics, Grimwade would likely have trouble holding on to Morayfield.
2012 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Darren Grimwade | Liberal National | 12,779 | 47.02 | +13.95 |
| Mark Ryan | Labor | 9,988 | 36.75 | -11.69 |
| Stephen Beck | Katter’s Australian | 2,880 | 10.60 | +10.6 |
| Paul Doherty | Greens | 1,532 | 5.64 | -1.68 |
2012 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Darren Grimwade | Liberal National | 13,818 | 55.57 | +14.7 |
| Mark Ryan | Labor | 11,046 | 44.43 | -14.70 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Morayfield have been split into two parts between the two main suburbs: Burpengary in the south and Morayfield in the north.
The LNP vote was higher in Burpengary (49.9%) compared to Morayfield (44.8%). Labor’s vote was higher in Morayfield (39.2%) than in Burpengary (34.8%). Katter’s Australian Party came third, with a relatively steady vote in both areas between 10% and 11%.
The LNP won the two-party-preferred vote in Morayfield with a relatively small 53% majority, but won more solidly with 58.2% in Burpengary.
The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | KAP prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| Burpengary | 49.86 | 34.79 | 10.52 | 58.23 | 10,335 | 38.03 |
| Morayfield | 44.77 | 39.17 | 10.25 | 52.99 | 9,347 | 34.39 |
| Other votes | 45.90 | 36.43 | 11.14 | 55.13 | 7,497 | 27.58 |
This is seat is very close to where I live, both candidates are well-liked by the Electorate and both will give it a red hot go. I think that Grimwade has been a good local Member, but the swing to Labor this election statewide will be about 10%, I don’t think he can hold on with a swing of that magnitude.
I always enjoy your commentary PRP, really do, and I often agree with you. I don’t here though. There will be some seats where Labor will get swings of 10 percent to them but it won’t be uniform. Campaigns change a lot and often improve the government’s polling, especially a first term one. Labor can probably expect about a 6-7 percent state wide swing to them but I still don’t think they will win here or seats like Ashgrove and Brisbane Central which have small margins. The swing will be bigger in some seats and smaller in some others. I am rating this as an LNP retain. Federally they voted Abbott in this area.
Yeah and I’m sure none of them regret voting for Abbott… I think its a false assumption to say that a campaign will tighten things up, if anything it reminds voters of what the last three years were like and based on the polling of the last three years, there isn’t a great opinion of the LNP government. Morayfield is probably the most competitive in the Caboolture region and will get the most attention from labor. This seat also has the former MP running again so his personal vote is still there. Either way its hard to comprehend how you can say a seat like this with a 5% margin could be retained when labor’s primary vote will most likely reach the 40s and the LNPs will decrease
THere are LNP BIll boards up on Morayfield Road. Estimated Size 4* 2 Metres. They are spending money like they were Clive Palmer.
Rudd for PM predicts an LNP retain. SOmeho
Well I want Labor to pick up Morayfield, I just don’t believe they will. I think people are more gulable than some of us want to believe. Hope Observer is completely right though.
I agree with you Rudd for PM that the swing will probably be less here than elsewhere, particularly less than other Moreton Bay Regional seats. Morayfield did vote stronger than expected for Wyatt Roy, plus the new housing estates in Narangba are tending to vote more LNP of late. Could be one to watch, still have Labor as slight favourites this time.
And you can bet Roy ( a very popular Federal member) will be out campaigning hard for the LNP, the same way Wayne Swan is using his local popularity to help Labor in seats like Sandgate and Nudgee.
The big difference is that Nudgee and Sandgate are natural labor seats. Wyatt Roy went up against a bad candidate in an election where the LNP picked up seats in QLD. Morayfield was on a relatively safe margin before the 2012 election, and even before that the seat it took on before had an even safer margin. With Mark Ryan re-contesting its hard to see how this seat can be considered like for the LNP. I agree that if the state wide swing is 10%, it won’t be uniform at all in this area but this seat will fall back to labor. its safe labor history and small margin and labor candidacy make it hard for the LNP to retain this
LNP’s Darren Grimwade now has a large Bill Board (once again estimate 4M * 2 Metres) on median strip between Old Gympie Rd and Highway. This is well positioned and has the advantage of being visible vehicles returning to the electorate after work from both roads.
INtersestingly all campaigning so far in all seats has beeen momney based and only one example of Party members has been sighted. IT may bne easier to get money tahn enthuse Party members with the two alternative premiers. Both Major parties should dump their leaders before the election.
I do not agree with Rudd for PM that ROy is a “very popular” local member. CIty electorates very rarely like their MP. Wyatt Roy is seen as a hard working local member but he is also seen as a Party a member who just parrots the party line no matter what it is.
LNP’s Darren GRimwade and ALP’s Mark Ryan are / were also seen as being hard working but this had very little impact on how city dwellers vote. Ryan lost 11.59% of the vote between 2009 & 2012. Even though he was hard working. Not that it was Ryan himself that lost it it was virtually all lost by Anna Bligh.
Mark Ryan suffered the defeat not because of what he did but because he did not distance himself from Premier Bligh.
My prediction is that GRimwade will be a one termer. HE got 47.45 and I am predicting a minimum 6% swing away from Newman. GRimwade will likely lose his seat because he has not distanced himself from Newman.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
Morayfield will be hard fought race even with a swing against the LNP looming.
Mark Ryan upset a lot of the voters that elected him in 2009 and many were disappointed on his lack of principles on a lot of major issues that he voted with and the government.
If he can get over that and mature a bit and make the stand he promised in 2009 he might have a good show. But its yet to be seen whether his supporters that stood by him in 2009 will give him a second chance.
Any thoughts on the minor parties in this electorate?
Benno
I have heard no inklings of any minor candidates standing in Morayfield but majors are fighting hard in this electorate. IN fact I would go as far as to say that fight in Morayfield is most active campaign in Brisbane’s North. Neither local Paper Caboolture News (APN) or Caboolture Herald (Murdoch) have made any reference to a Third Way candidate
IN Nudgee only one corflute visible on Nudgee Rd. (ALP)
As I jahave asid previously LNP have well sited 4M * 2M Bill boards sited on Bruce Highway/ Gympie Rd. I heard a few months back that LNP had written off a swag of seats and would spend no money in them. It would appear that Morayfield is not one of these. I can not understand why no LNP member heading for unemployment did not have the courage to move a vote of no confidence ion Newman There must be stacks of them that know that unemployment is their future.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
Yes the first words after announcing the election from Campbell Newman was not to vote for the minor parties. The large portion of minor party vote yet to be defined is still worrying the government but the snap election has certainly weakened the opportunities for minor parties. I think it will be decided on the day or at least after the announcement of candidates when people that are sick of this two party first past the post disaster they have in Queensland will look closely at what candidates the minors have managed in such a short time to get together. I know in my seat thats what I and with many others will do
Newman comments were probably directed at the fact that there are six cross bench MPs that could decide the government which are likely to be very hostile towards the LNP in negotiations
Morayfield has the largest installation of solar PV in Brisbane, Electricity prices and therefore the proposed asset sale/lease is a major issue that from my conversations locally is all anyone is talking about apart from Abbott, regardless of the fact that State and Federal issues should be separated that is not happening here and may very well be detrimental to LNP chances of retaining this seat.
Let’s be honest, state and federal issues are going to intersect at this election in general, whether they “should” or not. People have drawn parallels between Newman and Abbott, and multiple parties are running on a “send Abbott a message” kind of campaign (not Labor, so much as PUP and others).
ailyn is right on this occasion. Federal and State issues do collide. I recall the Candidates Forum held in Morayfield Shopping Centre during 2010 Federal election when every single question asked by a member of the public related to State issues. I disagree that PUP wants to send Abbot a message in fact it has been precisely the opposite Palmer has not found it possible to confine his comments to Federal matters He is in fact engrossed in teaching Newman a lesson.
Anyone know anything about the Independent’s running in this year’s election?
Stephen Beck was the KAP candidate in 2012 and is now a member of the federally-registered Arts Party. He has a page here.
http://www.facebook.com/stephenbeck2015
Andrew Tyrrell contested the Redcliffe by-election as an independent last year, finishing in last place.
When you vote for any major party, you only get the party line, bout time we gave the independents a go to “keep the bastards honest”… Beck had a reasonable hit of 10% in 2012, although not running for crazy Bob this time, he’s name that may stand out to some. No idea who any of the others are, the Greens are just as bad as Labor and LNP, in fact, probably worse with some of the comments made by Milne, and family first? no, they are mostly religious crazies who want the whole world back in the salem days going by past policies..
You may be right Nooby66
Sack a Politician and elect a representative
Party Hacks dance on the world stage and dont give a toss about constituants
When will people wake up and put LNP and ALP EQUAL LAST
Voters need to stop voting for tweedle dumb and tweedle dumber
ALP has been crap since Whitlam
Liberals has been crap since Frazer
Why do people vote for them at all
Bring on the treason trials and vote Independent
If Labor had not been recycling a candidate who was booted out last time, they would have had an easy win in Morayfield, as it has a reasonable high proportion of Qld Public servants, none of which will be voting LNP in this election.
However that will be offset by a reasonable proportion of people, whom while dissatisfied with the LNP government, will feel insulted that Labor are only offering the same boofhead they kicked out last time.
I do however hope the tide turns enough that Mr Grimwade does get plenty of time to concentrate on his small business operations after 31st of January!
Spotted a parked semi trailer with an LNP Sign on Southern end of Morayfield Rd this afternoon.
The comparison with the LNP campaign in Morayfield and adjoining seat of Murrumba is amazing.
I went down and voted at the Burpengary pre-polling booth today (working Saturday). The car park was full and they were doing a roaring trade. Police were there to, not sure why.(Perhaps pre-poll voting!) Liberal and Labor naggers at the door, skipped in as quick as I could so didn’t notice if anyone else had any there.