Bulimba – Queensland 2015

LNP 0.14%

Incumbent MP
Aaron Dillaway, since 2012.

Geography
Eastern Brisbane. Bulimba covers Brisbane suburbs on the southern side of the Brisbane river, including Bulimba, Hawthorne, Balmoral, Morningside, Cannon Hill, Murarrie and parts of Carina and Camp Hill.

History
The seat of Bulimba has existed continuously since 1873. The seat has been held by Labor MPs continuously since the 1930s.

Pat Purcell won the seat at the 1992 election. He was appointed as Minister for Public Works, Housing and Racing in 2005. He resigned from the ministry in 2007. He retired at the 2009 election.

Former public servant Di Farmer was elected as the Labor Member for Bulimba at the 2009 state election.

In 2012, Farmer was narrowly defeated by LNP candidate Aaron Dillaway, by a 75-vote margin after a 7.9% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
Bulimba was the closest seat in the 2012 Queensland election. It was the last of more than 40 Labor seats lost to the Liberal National Party, by a slim margin. It’s hard to see the LNP having any chance of holding on in the face of a pro-Labor swing.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Aaron Dillaway Liberal National 13,244 46.70 +9.63
Di Farmer Labor 12,169 42.91 -4.83
Justin Bennett Greens 2,947 10.39 -1.25

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Aaron Dillaway Liberal National 13,690 50.14 +7.91
Di Farmer Labor 13,615 49.86 -7.91
Polling places in Bulimba at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in orange, Morningside in green, Norman Park in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Bulimba at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in orange, Morningside in green, Norman Park in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Bulimba have been divided into three parts. Polling places around the two key suburbs of Morningside and Norman Park have been grouped together, and the remaining booths on the eastern edge of the seat have been grouped together.

The LNP topped the primary vote in Morningside and Norman Park, with a vote ranging from 42.7% in the east to 48.8% in Morningside.

Labor topped the primary vote in the east, with a vote ranging from 41% in Morningside to 47.5% in the east.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 9.8% in the east to 10.4% in Norman Park.

On a two-party-preferred basis, the vote ranged from 52.2% to the LNP in Morningside to 54.2% to the ALP in the east.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % GRN prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
Morningside 48.80 41.06 10.15 52.24 8,810 31.06
Norman Park 46.49 43.14 10.37 49.91 7,473 26.35
East 42.70 47.52 9.78 45.79 3,220 11.35
Other votes 46.25 42.88 10.87 49.84 8,857 31.23
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Bulimba at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Bulimba at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Bulimba at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Bulimba at the 2012 Queensland state election.

4 COMMENTS

  1. Unless LNP stocks were to make a remarkable turnaround I
    give them zero chance of retaining here. Cut losses and focus on other seats
    would be my advice

  2. i believe that this is one of the 18 seats the LNP have already cut loose and dont thing there will be much of a fight to retain it.
    Your right its gone unless there is something the air that we no nothing about

  3. i believe that this is one of the 18 seats the LNP have already cut loose

    Where was it reported that the LNP has given up on 18 seats?

Comments are closed.