The Tally Room

East Hills was one of the last seats the Liberal Party gained off Labor in 2011, with Liberal candidate Glenn Brookes winning the seat off Labor's Alan Ashton by less than 500 votes. The recent redistribution was unfavourable to Brookes, cutting his margin from 0.6%...

The Entrance is a marginal seat on the Central Coast. It was won in 2011 by the Liberal Party's Chris Spence. He was caught up in an ICAC investigation in 2014 and stepped down from the Liberal Party, and subsequently retired at the 2015 election. The...

Gosford is the closest race in the New South Wales state election. At the time of writing, Labor's Kathy Smith leads Liberal MP Chris Holstein by 69 votes, and it appears that Labor's lead is enough to hold on the small numbers of remaining...

Earlier this week, while most of us were distracted by the New South Wales election results, the ACT Electoral Commission released draft boundaries for the next election. Electoral boundaries are reviewed after every election, but most changes have been minor since the ACT's electorates were...

This will be the last 'late counting' post. At this point, it seems possible to call the results in Lismore, Gosford and The Entrance, in addition to East Hills which has seemed clear for a couple of days. Labor has narrowly gained Gosford and The...

Over the next few days I will be posting about a number of the most interesting seats in the NSW election, including a breakdown of the seat's results by sub-area, and maps of booth results. The first seat today is Lismore. Lismore has been the most...

In Lismore, I've changed my estimated preference flows based on fresh information from scrutineers suggesting the Greens are not picking up quite enough Labor preferences to win. Having said that, this is still a projection and the Lismore result is still unclear. In East Hills,...

There's a lot of outstanding questions in the Legislative Council count. We know that the current vote shares will shift, and as they shift, these could have a significant impact on the chances of any party to win a seat. Using estimates of how many...

Since yesterday's update, we've had little new information in Lismore, but more substantial counting has taken place in the key seats of East Hill, Gosford and The Entrance. Labor now holds a slim lead in The Entrance, and the Liberal Party has taken a...

Last night I posted an update on the count in the close counts in Lismore, Gosford and East Hills. In this post, I'll update the count in these three seats, and also cover progress in The Entrance. The Entrance ALP ALP % LIB LIB % Exhausted Counted so far 15,705 50.65% 15,303 49.35% 2,416 Projected 24,104 50.00% 24,107 50.00% 3,651 Labor leads by...