NSW late counting – day three

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Last night I posted an update on the count in the close counts in Lismore, Gosford and East Hills. In this post, I’ll update the count in these three seats, and also cover progress in The Entrance.

The Entrance

ALPALP %LIBLIB %Exhausted
Counted so far15,70550.65%15,30349.35%2,416
Projected24,10450.00%24,10750.00%3,651

Labor leads by a narrow 402 votes in The Entrance. On my current projections, the Liberal Party would end up ahead by three votes – in other words, a tie.

This is based on an expectation of another 2000 postal votes and 6300 absentee votes, along with a few other small batches.

Lismore

NATNAT %GRNGRN %ALPALP %
Counted so far18,59342.69%11,44326.27%11,19825.71%
Projected20,81142.33%13,02726.50%12,62925.69%
Projected 2CP22,03749.45%22,52950.55%

Today we saw more votes counted that favoured the Nationals. We saw the Tenterfield pre-poll booth report, which was very favourable to the Nationals, as well as declared institutions.

As far as my primary vote model is concerned, the Nationals are in a slightly stronger position and the Greens and Labor are in a slightly weaker position, but the remaining Absent votes should help the Greens.

My preference model assumes that 62% of preferences flow to the Greens and 8% flow to the Nationals. On this model, the Nationals creeped closer today but should fall short by about 500 votes.

It’s a big question mark as to how strongly Labor’s preferences will flow. It’s definitely possible that the Greens could gain enough, but not guaranteed. I’m hoping to get sufficient information from scrutineers later this week to be able to make a more confident prediction.

East Hills

ALPALP %LIBLIB %Exhausted
Counted so far15,16249.43%15,51450.57%2,425
Projected18,09449.78%18,25550.22%3,286

No additional votes have been counted since yesterday, and my projection still predicts that the Liberal lead will narrow as the count proceeds.

Gosford

ALPALP %LIBLIB %Exhausted
Counted so far20,09250.05%20,05549.95%3,850
Projected22,61049.93%22,67250.07%4,424

Since yesterday, primary votes have been reported for the Woy Woy pre-poll centre, and another batch of 200 postal votes have been counted. Two-party-preferred votes have been counted for all pre-poll centres and iVotes, as well as those postal votes that have reported so far.

These additional votes made up a majority of those expected at the time of yesterday’s post. As expected, the Labor lead has narrowed substantially, from 328 votes to 37. However, the narrowing is not as dramatic as expected. The projected Liberal lead at the end of the count has narrowed from 439 votes to 62.

My projection assumes that Labor will gain a net 11 votes from declared institutions, and 16 from new enrolment votes, but that the Liberal Party will receive a net gain of 73 votes from remaining postal votes, 47 votes from absentee votes, and 6 votes from provisional votes. If the Liberal Party doesn’t do as well as projected on these figures, Gosford could run very close.

 

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1 COMMENT

  1. Much in Lismore and Ballina hinges on the Labor preference flows. The nett 54% benefit you used above is high compared to Noosa (+50%), Balmain in 2011 (27%) and on coast in Port Macquarie 2011 (+29%) to Independent. The assumption is tough given a local Greens focus on filling all boxes – nevertheless if the natt gain is 45% then Nats hold Lismore easily and would struggle to bridge the gap without very favourable absentees.
    I agree Gosford closer than expected yesterday – with 5500 absentees etc it could be very close now – I assume you estimated absentee votes based upon 2011? In the case of The Entrance they were not very favourable to Libs in 2011 so task to hold seat is tough.

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