Seat in focus – Gosford

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Gosford is the closest race in the New South Wales state election. At the time of writing, Labor’s Kathy Smith leads Liberal MP Chris Holstein by 69 votes, and it appears that Labor’s lead is enough to hold on the small numbers of remaining votes.

Polling places in Gosford at the 2015 NSW state election. North-East in green, South-East in blue, West in orange.
Polling places in Gosford at the 2015 NSW state election. North-East in green, South-East in blue, West in orange.

Most of the seat’s population lies in two urban centres: a southern area including Umina, Booker Bay and Woy Woy, and a northern area including Gosford, Kariong and Point Clare. These covers a much larger area to the west of these two centres, covering the rural parts of the Gosford council area.

The seat of Gosford was named ‘Peats’ prior to the 2006 redistribution. The neighbouring seat of Terrigal was previously named ‘Gosford’, but the seat names changed due to the shift of Gosford itself from one seat to the other.

Labor held Gosford prior to the last election, when it was won by the Liberal Party’s Chris Holstein. Holstein is the only one of four central coast Liberal MPs (along with a number of Hunter Liberal MPs) to not be implicated at the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC).

In my pre-election guide, I divided polling booths in Gosford into three areas: north-east, south-east and the west. The two main urban centres I described above are respectively the north-east and south-east areas.

Voter groupALP 2PP %LIB 2PP %ALP swingTotal% of votes
South-East54.545.510.815,89933.0
North-East47.952.114.113,05427.1
West35.864.29.11,9764.1
Other votes49.250.811.817,21735.8

The ALP won a 54.5% majority in the south-east, while the Liberal Party won a 52.1% majority in the north-east, and a much larger 64.2% majority in the low-population west. Holstein also won a slim majority of the special votes.

There was a large swing to Labor across the seat, but it was biggest at 14% in the north-east, compared to less than 11% in the Labor-leaning south-east.

I’ve also created a two-party-preferred booth map, including a zoomed-in version to cover the Umina-Woy Woy area in the south-east.

Two-party-preferred votes in Gosford at the 2015 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Gosford at the 2015 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in south-east parts of Gosford, including Umina and Woy Woy, at the 2015 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in south-east parts of Gosford, including Umina and Woy Woy, at the 2015 NSW state election.
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13 COMMENTS

  1. I really need Holstein to loose Gosford even though I did a deal with him. To let him campaign without me continually bringing up his woeful time as councilor and Mayor of Gosford City Council. He gas had his 4 year chance and did nothing to address the long standing corruption allegations. Now with luck I can pursue Kathy Smith, because Labor is also still represented on the local council! Edward James on the long paddock

  2. Edward James, you are a troublemaker and of no help to anyone in our area. If you are going to pursue Kathy Smith then you will be cutting off your nose to spite your very ugly face. If you knew what you were on about you would know that Kathy Smith campaigned for our local hospitals to get more funding and equipment than they ever have before. Remember ‘Cancer Voices’? That was Kathy Smith. You need to get a life and stop being an annoying oxygen thief that no one takes seriously anyway.

  3. C@tmomma. I like to think of myself as a more a political career assasin than trouble maker! I travelled up from SA to do my bit to influence the outcome of this seat. If you had read the local papers you would know I put considerable legitimate support and money toward helping Kathy Smith displace Holstein. I wanted him gone before he could make a permanant nest for himself. Perhaps you and other tally room readers may like to search thease four words “gosford council John Hatzistergos” before misleading tallyroom readers after this election? I managed to speak with Kathy Smith at the North Burge Road pre polling booth. I wasn’t impressed. But I had to support her, because she was the best tool for the job. Now if she takes the seat of Gosford we expect her to represent the thousands of disenfranchised constituents. Starting with the parents, grandparents and children who supported Holstien when he made a hand shake agreement with me to do everything he could gdt our rehab returned to Woy Woy. You might be aware of the new thirty bed wing? I don’t put up with political allsorts and their supporters who lie and cheat. Edward James on the long paddock

  4. This seat is developing a genuine split in the vote and will become a permanent fixture of the in-doubt column at elections (unless there is a landslide). The demographics in this seat is becoming dominated by retirees and young families unable to break into the housing market in Sydney itself (the young families dominating the retiress). The young family demographic are genuine swing voters and that is typified with the strong swing back in the state around Woy Woy and Umina, while Gosford and the West have been maintained for the Coalition.

    The two big issues for these young families are transport and health as a lot of these families will commute into places like the City or Mac Park for work. They will also require solid health services.

  5. While many people just vote at an election some go futher they go out and put up core flutes on power poles and volenteer to.hand out how to votes at polling booths. I have spent years exposing dead wood politicians in print because it dose influence the way people vote. I do this because the politicians I’m exposing. In my opinion have committed political sins against the very people they are asking for voter support. Main stream media will try to protect some politicians by refusing to publish letters in the comments section. So if like me your serious about creating political change you will publish political material in local papers reminding voters of candiates political sins. It is worth the money and time, when people in positions of trust get too big for their boots. My efforts may have only been worth a few hundred votes but gee I feel great. As there is only one politician left of the ten on my list! Edward James on the long paddock

  6. Edward James, I hope you remember which politician it was who got the funding for the refurbishment and reinstatement of the Woy Woy Rehab Hospital. Deb O’Neill & Labor. Who will always support good Public Health over Private Health forevermore. Yes, State Labor may have closed it down in the first place but federal Labor responded to the public outcry to get it back again. Which they did and then made it better than it was before.

  7. Catmomma oh I remember that. There was a photo in the Peninsula News of Mr Brian Neville a double amputee, he was the public face of the communities fight, talking with Deborah O’Neill taken outside the CWA hall at Woy Woy. Im surprised you know something about that. Were you a supporter of the communities fight from the beginning? Edward James on the long paddock

  8. Ahhh Deb O’Neill. The Labor MP who replaced the previous MP in Belinda Neal, who’s husband in John Della Bosca, had an affair with a 26 year old surnamed Neil.

  9. The most amusing comment which I published in our Local Peninsula News about that Hawkeye was; What two things do these three Labor Politicians have in common? John Della Bosca, Milton the Horrible Orkopolous abd David Campbell. Answer. All three were Labor Cabinet Ministers when they were exposed as adulterers. I personally handed John Della Bosca a copy on Woy Woy station then pointed my qyestion out to him and watched him read it. Im surprised no one else has enguaged with catomomma. She seems confused about what I’ve been doing in public to change the political face of Gosford for fourteen years. Edward James on the long paddock

  10. Catomomma youve been quiet since misleading tallyroom readers again. I had hoped I could draw you out a bit more. Actually it was the Woy Woy Public Hospital Alliance which by sheer determined fighting for almost six years. Suceeded in changing the minds of every politician. Politicians who started out telling the Alliance there was no way their medical rehabiltation amenity would be returned to Woy Woy. Kathy Smith claims to live in Umina but we never seen her at any monthly Woy Woy Public Hospital Alliance meetings starting before our alliance had an official name and still working for our local community even today. Its been a bit unfair of me not to tell readers ip front. I am an honored lifetime member of the Woy Woy Public Hospital Alliance. If your are a local perhaps you should inform yourself a little better before sprouting spin. I suspect Federal Senator Deb O’Niell would be embarrased if you told her how you have tried to dis me in print. Mind you I did photograph and expose Deb’s illegal campaign activity before she lost the Federal seat of Robertson to Lucy Wicks. Mind you without being parrachuted into Bob Carrs Senate seat Deb would not even be in politics now. I resolved to do whatever I could to rid our parliaments and local council. Of the dead wood shonks and cheats, because of the damage they permitted to be done to my Labor voting father before he died. I really do hope and even pray Kathy Smith wins the recount. Because he is in my opinion demonstrated unfit to represent. If Smith fails to impress Gosford, don’t expect her to get a second term either Edward James

  11. I have learnt a lot about activist, trolls and politics over the last fourteen years. If your not willing sign your birth name to what you write when attacking people. For what it’s worth, You may as we’ll be writing on the back of a toilet door! Good by !

  12. “Edward James on the long paddock” is starting to remind me of Wesley Willis. “Rock over London, rock on Chicago!”

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