Gosford is the closest race in the New South Wales state election. At the time of writing, Labor’s Kathy Smith leads Liberal MP Chris Holstein by 69 votes, and it appears that Labor’s lead is enough to hold on the small numbers of remaining votes.
Most of the seat’s population lies in two urban centres: a southern area including Umina, Booker Bay and Woy Woy, and a northern area including Gosford, Kariong and Point Clare. These covers a much larger area to the west of these two centres, covering the rural parts of the Gosford council area.
The seat of Gosford was named ‘Peats’ prior to the 2006 redistribution. The neighbouring seat of Terrigal was previously named ‘Gosford’, but the seat names changed due to the shift of Gosford itself from one seat to the other.
Labor held Gosford prior to the last election, when it was won by the Liberal Party’s Chris Holstein. Holstein is the only one of four central coast Liberal MPs (along with a number of Hunter Liberal MPs) to not be implicated at the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC).
In my pre-election guide, I divided polling booths in Gosford into three areas: north-east, south-east and the west. The two main urban centres I described above are respectively the north-east and south-east areas.
|Voter group||ALP 2PP %||LIB 2PP %||ALP swing||Total||% of votes|
The ALP won a 54.5% majority in the south-east, while the Liberal Party won a 52.1% majority in the north-east, and a much larger 64.2% majority in the low-population west. Holstein also won a slim majority of the special votes.
There was a large swing to Labor across the seat, but it was biggest at 14% in the north-east, compared to less than 11% in the Labor-leaning south-east.
I’ve also created a two-party-preferred booth map, including a zoomed-in version to cover the Umina-Woy Woy area in the south-east.