East Hills was one of the last seats the Liberal Party gained off Labor in 2011, with Liberal candidate Glenn Brookes winning the seat off Labor’s Alan Ashton by less than 500 votes. The recent redistribution was unfavourable to Brookes, cutting his margin from 0.6% to 0.2%, and making East Hills the most marginal seat in the state.
With Labor gaining a large swing back at this election, you would have expected Labor to easily win back East Hills.
But while Labor gained over a dozen other seats, and generally gained a large swing in most seats, Labor was unable to overcome the tiny margin in East Hills.
On current figures, Brookes is on 51.1% of the two-party-preferred vote, which is a swing of 0.9%. This figure will change on late counting, since the two-party-preferred count hasn’t yet been conducted on pre-poll and absent votes.
While there was very little movement in the overall vote, this masks some interesting trends in different parts of the seat.
In the pre-election guide, I split booths in East Hills into three parts: north, south-east and south-west. The north covers those booths close to Bankstown, while the two southern areas cover those closer to the Georges River.
|Voter group||LIB 2PP %||ALP 2PP %||LIB swing||Total||% of votes|
In the north, Labor won a comfortable 57.5% majority in the north, with a 2% swing back to them.
But in the south, the Liberal Party maintained a majority of the two-party-preferred vote, with a swing towards them.
The following maps show a similar picture. While there are a number of booths in the south of the seat where Labor won, the Liberal Party gained a swing in those areas while Labor gained a swing in the north.