NSW late counting – day four

6

Since yesterday’s update, we’ve had little new information in Lismore, but more substantial counting has taken place in the key seats of East Hill, Gosford and The Entrance. Labor now holds a slim lead in The Entrance, and the Liberal Party has taken a 20-vote lead in Gosford. It also appears that the Liberal Party’s lead in East Hills is now too big to be overcome.

Lismore

NATNAT %GRNGRN %ALPALP %
Counted so far18,73242.76%11,49026.23%11,25225.68%
Projected20,80042.31%13,05226.55%12,61225.66%
Projected 2CP22,02449.42%22,54150.58%

A small extra batch of postal votes were added in Lismore, and while these votes favoured the Nationals they didn’t do so as strongly as expected, so my projection has cut the Nationals lead by a small amount.

We don’t have any more information about how preferences will flow, but I’m hoping for tomorrow night’s edition to be able to use a preference flow based on actual scrutineer data.

East Hills

ALPALP %LIBLIB %Exhausted
Counted so far17,61848.93%18,38651.07%2,787
Projected22,77049.39%23,32850.61%3,185

A large batch of votes have been added, which have extended the Liberal lead from 352 votes to 768 votes.

While the ALP should claw back some votes, the Liberal Party is on track for a 558-vote victory on current projections. On these numbers, it seems that the Liberal Party has won East Hills.

A problem with my formula meant that the previous figures were slightly incorrect.

Gosford

ALPALP %LIBLIB %Exhausted
Counted so far20,62549.98%20,64550.02%4,053
Projected22,34349.58%22,72150.42%4,618

With the first absentee votes counted, Liberal MP Chris Holstein has taken the lead in Gosford, by a slim 20 votes.

We are still expecting a distribution of preferences for 244 declared institution votes, and expecting over 4000 other votes, the majority of which are absentee votes.

If the remaining absentee and postal votes favour Holstein in the same proportions as those counted so far, he should expand his lead to 378 votes, but if the samples so far prove to be Liberal-friendly, the seat could still be in play.

The Entrance

ALPALP %LIBLIB %Exhausted
Counted so far20,40250.12%20,30849.88%3,088
Projected23,87349.56%24,29950.44%3,842

Pre-poll votes in The Entrance have now been completed, with the first batches of postal and absentee votes also counted.

Labor’s lead has narrowed from 402 votes to 94 votes. The projection is now projecting a 426-vote lead for the Liberal candidate, compared to a three-vote lead yesterday.

Liked it? Take a second to support the Tally Room on Patreon!

6 COMMENTS

  1. It looks like those who want Labor to retake Gosford should consider praying for divine assistance! To access some background on Gosford Council, Holsteins political kindergarten. Google the words John Hatzistergos Corrupt Gosford City Council to access published political information. Circulating in local Central Coast Papers Edward James on the long paddock

  2. It looks like those who want Labor to retake Gosford should consider praying for divine assistance! To access some background on Gosford Council, Holsteins political kindergarten. Google the words John Hatzistergos Corrupt Gosford City Council to access published political information. Circulating in local Central Coast Papers Edward James on the long paddock

  3. Enrolement Vote count has hurt both Liberal Candidates, putting the ALP back in front in Gosford and extending the lead in the Entrance. Both Liberal candidates there need another solid stream of Absentee and Postal Votes to come in. May not be enough for the Entrance but I maintain that Gosford will go to a re-count and scrutineering will become absolutely critical.

  4. Frankly, I think East Hills was always a Lib hold(but I was gagged). Gosford will go to Libs and The Entrance will be Labor. I can’t see the Nats losing Lismore. And the Libs will win the last LC seat.

    The mid south and southwest Sydney are changing. Newtown was always a green gain.

Comments are closed.