NSW late counting – day five

3

In Lismore, I’ve changed my estimated preference flows based on fresh information from scrutineers suggesting the Greens are not picking up quite enough Labor preferences to win. Having said that, this is still a projection and the Lismore result is still unclear.

In East Hills, the Liberal Party has solidified their lead, and look set to win the seat.

Labor extended their lead in The Entrance, and the projected Liberal victory has become smaller. In Gosford, Labor has regained the lead, and the projected Liberal victory there has also become smaller.

Lismore

NATNAT %GRNGRN %ALPALP %
Counted so far19,00642.82%11,60926.16%11,40325.69%
Projected20,73142.17%13,09826.65%12,63925.71%
Projected 2CP22,22351.76%20,71348.24%

There has only been a slight change to the number of primary votes counted, with a small batch of postal votes added.

Despite these votes being favourable to the Nationals, the addition of these votes increased the projected Greens primary vote and decreased the projected Nationals primary vote.

Since yesterday I’ve changed the preference flows I am using to model a final result, and they have flipped the projected result from a Greens win to a Nationals win.

Until now, I’ve been working on the basis of a preference flow of 62% Greens, 8% Nationals and 30% exhausting, and this flow covered preferences from Labor, as well as those from the minor candidates.

It’s becoming clear today from scrutineers in Lismore that preferences are not flowing quite so strongly. My latest figures are:

  • Labor preferences – 57% Greens, 6.3% Nationals, 36.7% exhaust
  • Other preferences – 15% Greens, 26% Nationals, 59% exhaust

These preference flows are relatively close to those from Nationals scrutineers that Antony Green is now using in his projection. When you factor in this change in preference flows, the Nationals take the lead with 51.76% after preferences.

Having said that, all of those votes sampled so far come from small booths, with votes in Lismore and Murwillumbah yet to be counted. It is possible that Labor preferences will be much stronger at bigger booths, and this could put the Greens back in contention.

East Hills

ALPALP %LIBLIB %Exhausted
Counted so far17,67548.89%18,47851.11%2,805
Projected22,51949.20%23,25550.80%3,176

A few more postal votes were added in East Hills, and I’ve adjusted the formula slightly, assuming 500 more postal votes splitting the same way as those counted so far.

The Liberal Party have increased their lead slightly.

Gosford

ALPALP %LIBLIB %Exhausted
Counted so far21,07850.04%21,04449.96%4,205
Projected22,51349.75%22,74350.25%4,683

436 new enrolment votes (twice what was predicted), along with an additional 300 postal votes and 200 absentee votes, were counted today, and Labor has regained a 34-vote lead, compared to the Liberal 20-vote lead yesterday.

Yesterday I was projecting a final Liberal lead of 378 votes, but this has now narrowed to 230 votes.

The Entrance

ALPALP %LIBLIB %Exhausted
Counted so far21,00850.16%20,87049.84%3,233
Projected23,86449.82%24,04050.18%3,969

Today, 600 postal votes and over 500 absent votes were counted, along with all 334 enrolment votes.

Yesterday’s post had Labor leading by 94 votes, with the Liberal Party projected to gain a 426-vote lead at the end of the count.

Today’s count was helpful to Labor. Labor increased their lead to 138 votes, and the projected Liberal lead narrowed to 176 votes.

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3 COMMENTS

  1. If peter jones didn’t pay polling booth workers would that be a breach of election laws? Edward James on the long paddock

  2. So Gosford is only missing declared institutions on the NSWEC website, and The Entrance is missing provisional/silent voters. If you assume these are the only votes missing, Labor should be home in these two seats.

    I’m not sure if there’s anymore absent or postal votes to come, but it seems likely there isn’t.

    I’ll do a final late counting post towards the end of today, but it looks like the final count will be 54/34/3/2.

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