Warringah – Australia 2025

IND 9.4% vs LIB

Incumbent MP
Zali Steggall, since 2019.

• Geography
• Redistribution
• History
• Candidates
• Assessment
• 2022 results
• Booth breakdown
• Results maps

Geography
Northern Sydney. Warringah covers parts of the Northern Beaches and Lower North Shore of Sydney, including Manly, Mosman, North Sydney, Neutral Bay, Cremorne, Cammeray, Balgowlah, Freshwater, Brookvale, Curl Curl, Wollstonecraft and Allambie Heights. The seat covers the entirety of the North Sydney and Mosman council areas and southern parts of the Northern Beaches council area.

Redistribution
Warringah lost Forestville, North Curl Curl and Killarney Heights to Mackellar. Warringah then gained the remainder of the North Sydney council area from the abolished seat of North Sydney, including the suburbs of Cremorne, Cammeray, North Sydney and Wollstonecraft.

History
Warringah was first created at the 1922 election, and has never elected a Labor candidate, electing a conservative candidate at all but one election prior to 2019. That exception was in 1937 when an independent was elected, who proceeded to join the United Australia Party shortly after his election and went on to serve as a minister in a number of conservative governments.

The seat was first won by Granville Ryrie in 1922. Ryrie had been Member for North Sydney since a 1911 by-election and was elected to Warringah unopposed. The ALP challenged him in 1925 but he managed over 80% of the vote.

Ryrie was appointed High Commissioner to London in 1927 and the by-election was won by Archdale Parkhill, in a race where the two Labor candidates polled barely 18% between them.

Parkhill had been the Lynton Crosby of early 20th Century Australian politics, coordinating many campaigns for the early Liberal Party and Nationalists over two decades. Parkhill served as a minister in the Lyons government from 1932 until 1937, serving as Minister for Defence during Lyons’ second term.

Parkhill was defeated at the 1937 election by conservative independent Percy Spender, who won the seat in a close race on preferences after falling 15% behind on primary votes. Spender went on to join the UAP shortly after his victory. Spender served in the wartime governments of Robert Menzies and Arthur Fadden and served as Minister for External Affairs until 1951, when he retired at the election before being appointed Ambassador to the United States. Spender went on to serve as Australia’s first representative on the International Court of Justice at The Hague.

Spender was succeeded in 1951 by Francis Bland, who held the seat for ten years with massive majorities, polling over 70% on two occasions and being elected unopposed on a third. He retired without ever taking a ministerial role.

Bland was succeeded in 1961 by John Cockle, who held the seat until his death shortly before the 1966 election.

Cockle was succeeded by prominent Edward St John in 1966. St John caused controversy in 1969 attacking Prime Minister John Gorton, which led him to resign from the Liberal Party, and he was defeated at the 1969 election by Liberal candidate Michael MacKellar.

MacKellar served as a minister in the Fraser government until 1982, when a scandal involving the importation of a colour television saw him resign from the ministry.

MacKellar resigned from Parliament in 1994, and the ensuing by-election was won by Tony Abbott. Abbott went on to serve as a minister for the entirety of the Howard government from 1996 to 2007, becoming a senior member of Cabinet in the last two terms of the government.

Abbott had always held Warringah by large margins over the ALP, and the first serious threat to his hold on the seat came in 2001, when Peter Macdonald, former independent member for the state seat of Manly, challenged Abbott. Macdonald polled 27% of the primary vote and came within 6% of defeating Abbott.

Abbott served as Shadow Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs following the Howard government’s defeat in November 2007, serving in the role under leaders Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull.

Abbott resigned from the frontbench in November 2009 in protest at Malcolm Turnbull’s support for the Emissions Trading Scheme, which triggered the collapse of Turnbull’s leadership. Abbott won a slim majority in a party room ballot against Turnbull in December 2009 and was elected Leader of the Liberal Party.

Abbott led the Coalition into the 2010 election. The Labor government lost its majority, but managed to piece together a majority with the support of crossbench MPs. Abbott led the Coalition through the next term, before winning the 2013 election. Tony Abbott served as Prime Minister until he was defeated for the Liberal leadership in September 2015.

Abbott was re-elected in 2016, but in 2019 was defeated by independent Zali Steggall. Steggall was re-elected in 2022.

Candidates

Assessment
Steggall holds this seat by a sizeable margin and should be re-elected.

2022 result

2022 two-candidate-preferred result

2022 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown

Warringah has been split into four areas: Manly, Mosman, North Sydney and Warringah. Polling places on the lower north shore have been divided along local government boundaries, while those booths in the Northern Beaches council area have been split between the two former council areas of Manly and Warringah.

Independents (either Steggall or North Sydney candidate Kylea Tink) won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 58.9% in North Sydney and Mosman to 65% in Manly.

Election results in Warringah at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Liberal), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for independent candidates, the Liberal Party and Labor.

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