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Bit of a seat of interest to me, as it’s the seat I live in. Jacqui Scruby has had some wins for local issues in the 1 year and 1 week (at the time I’m writing this) she’s been in parliament, with critical funding for Mona Vale Road being allocated, as well as the announcement this week of the Northern Beaches Hospital set to be bought back by the government.
However, she was elected last year in… interesting circumstances. Resignation of a sitting member, charged with alleged sex crimes, and in a seat he won by one of the narrower margins that year. Neither Labor nor the Greens ran in the by-election, and she was able to sweep up most of their votes. Preference leakage was a big factor in her 606 vote loss in 2023, and I’m not sure how she’d go in a general election.
I suppose one thing that could sway the result one way or the other is if we get a verdict on that case before March 2027.
If she is a good mp she will consolidate.
A swing to Labor overall will have the same effect. Was Mr Ammoun a poor choice for the liberals….again opv helps the liberals
The local Liberals apparently raised concerns about Amon (this was before the sexual abuse cases were brought to light), and Rob Stokes was keen on having a woman preselected for the seat. Amon was still pre-selected, and received a glowing endorsement from some in the Liberals, and other individuals within the community.
I think the last State election was 45% Liberal, 36% Scruby, 10% Labor, and 7% Greens. Then it was a 50.66% 2CP to the Liberals. OPV may hinder Scruby’s chances, however if the Liberal primary vote drops further she should be able to win. Not much wiggle room for the Liberals as it is.
Scruby got over half the primary votes at the by-election. It was off the back of Rory Amon’s departure and charges coming to light and Labor and Greens abstaining. If she can get a sophomore surge and get Labor and Greens voters to tactically vote for her (or send her their preferences) then she’d easily retain. She only narrowly missed out in 2023.
My tip is the Liberals will get this back. Vote splitting and OPV plus they should select a better candidate.
Remember Wagga
@NP as I said, it’ll depend on whether there’s an outcome for the Amon case.
Mackellar was winnable for the Liberals earlier this year too, so naturally they did all they could to make it unwinnable; failing to focus on local issues, hanging around Dutton too much, and a candidate selection one could argue was on the borderline of parachuting.
Cj it was only unwinnable due to the poor liberal campaign they were actually competitive in the polls leading up to the start of the campaign
@John That’s… that’s basically what I said…
The Liberal campaign was dreadful here.
The liberals campaign was dreadful everywhere
Yeah but more the point that it was completely uninspired here, and they really did an own goal by selecting James Brown.
They basically treated the seat as though it was rightfully theirs.
Mick, I would say the ‘teal’ independents generally have less of a personal vote compared to the rural independents. As the results in Victorian teal seats (Kooyong and Goldstein) have shown, a strong and moderate leaning candidate from the Liberals can negate the sophomore surge factor with both seats recording swings against their incumbent MP’s.
Wagga and Pittwater are own goals
The liberals deserved to lose both seats
Pittwater is the 3rd most marginal independent seat. There is a bit of a buffer for Scruby.
I believe that when an MP exits due to legal issues or controversies then there would be a big swing against the party at the by-election. Scruby winning wasn’t a surprise especially since she was close in 2023. She also had the advantage of Labor/Greens abstaining and so there was little vote splitting. The margin may be a bit inflated. On the flipside, by-elections tend to be more conservative than usual.