Swansea – NSW 2015

LIB 0.3%

Incumbent MP
Garry Edwards, since 2011.

Geography
Swansea covers parts of the City of Lake Macquarie and Wyong Shire on the eastern shore of Lake Macquarie, between the lake and the Pacific Ocean. The seat covers the suburbs of Belmont, Bluff Point, Budgewoi, Croudace Bay, Floraville, Halekulani, Lake Munmorah, San Remo and Swansea.

Map of Swansea's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Swansea’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Swansea shifted slightly south, losing Redhead to Charlestown and gaining San Remo and the remainder of Budgewoi from Wyong. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 1.1% to 0.3%.

History
The seat of Swansea was first created for the 1981 election. With the exception of the 1988 election, when it was won by an independent, the seat has always been won by the ALP.

The seat was first won in 1981 by Don Bowman of the ALP. In 1988, Bowman lost to the independent Ivan Welsh, Mayor of Lake Macquarie. Welsh held the seat for one term, losing again to Bowman in 1991.

Bowman retired in 1995, and was succeeded by Lake Macquarie councillor Jill Hall. Hall served less than one term in Swansea, resigning in 1998 to contest and win the federal seat of Shortland. She has held Shortland ever since, winning a fifth term in 2010.

Due to the impending state election, no by-election was held in Swansea in 1998. At the election in March 1999 the seat was won by Lake Macquarie councillor Milton Orkopoulos. Orkopoulos was re-elected, and was promoted to the ministry in 2005.

In 2006, Orkopoulos was charged with offenses related to child sex and drugs. He was immediately expelled from the ALP and removed as a minister. He resigned from Parliament in late 2006, close to the 2007 state election. Orkopoulos was later convicted and is currently serving a prison sentence.

Swansea was won in 2007 by Robert Coombs of the ALP. He held the seat for four years, and lost the seat in 2011 to Liberal candidate Garry Edwards.

Edwards resigned from the Liberal Party in 2014 after allegations at ICAC about a donation to Edwards from property developer Jeff McCloy. He has sat as an independent for the remainder of his term.

Candidates

  • Luke Cubis (Christian Democratic Party)
  • Johanna Uidam (Liberal)
  • Joshua Agland (Animal Justice Party)
  • Chris Osborne (Independent)
  • Paul Doughty (No Land Tax)
  • Garry Edwards (Independent)
  • Yasmin Catley (Labor)
  • Phillipa Parsons (Greens)

Assessment
Prior to the 2011 election, Swansea was considered to be a reasonably safe Labor seat. Considering the very slim margin, the lack of an announced Liberal candidate and the allegations about the sitting ex-Liberal MP, Labor shouldn’t have much trouble regaining this seat.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Garry Edwards Liberal 17,283 37.7 +14.0 37.3
Robert Coombs Labor 16,133 35.2 -10.7 36.2
Gillian Sneddon Independent 7,408 16.2 +16.2 15.3
Phillipa Parsons Greens 3,845 8.4 -0.2 8.8
Noreen Tibbey Christian Democrats 1,130 2.5 -0.8 2.5

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Garry Edwards Liberal 19,805 51.1 +11.9 50.3
Robert Coombs Labor 18,928 48.9 -11.9 49.7
Polling places in Swansea at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in green, North in yellow, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Swansea at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in green, North in yellow, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Swansea have been split into three parts: central, north and south. Polling places in the Wyong LGA have been grouped together as “south” while those in the Lake Macquarie council area have been grouped as “central” and “north”.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the south (53.1%) and the centre (53%) but the Liberal Party won a larger 56.2% majority in the north.

Independent candidate Gillian Sneddon polled third, with a vote ranging from 10.5% in the south to 22% in the centre. The Greens came fourth with a vote ranging from 7.5% in the centre to 9.7% in the south.

Voter group LIB 2PP % IND % GRN % Total votes % of votes
South 46.9 10.5 9.7 14,380 31.2
North 56.2 17.2 8.4 11,961 25.9
Central 47.0 22.0 7.5 8,961 19.4
Other votes 51.0 14.0 9.0 10,840 23.5
Two-party-preferred votes in Swansea at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Swansea at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Gillian Sneddon in Swansea at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Gillian Sneddon in Swansea at the 2011 NSW state election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. My prediction: Even without the corruption allegations against sitting member Gerry Edwards, this would have been monumentally difficult for the Liberals to hold, and Labor will easily Swansea back.

  3. It looks as though the presence of the independent in 2011 kept the swing to the Liberals down, so this is probably a smaller margin than it would otherwise have been, but either way, especially with Edwards running again and complicating the race Labor should clearly win it back.

  5. Good as gone for the Liberal Party, strong Labor candidate. I think Garry Edwards will probably get about 10% of the primary vote. Liberal’s to get 25% if their lucky.

  6. Gillian Sneddon probably took mostly Labor votes that exhausted. Despite this having a relatively modest swing in 2011, it could have one of the larger swings this time around.

Comments are closed.