Drummoyne – NSW 2015

LIB 17.1%

Incumbent MP
John Sidoti, since 2011.

Geography
Inner Western Sydney. The seat of Drummoyne covers suburbs on the southern side of Sydney Harbour, covering most of the City of Canada Bay. Suburbs include Drummoyne, Five Dock, Russell Lea, Concord, Rhodes and parts of North Strathfield.

Map of Drummoyne's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Drummoyne’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Drummoyne shrank slightly, losing parts of Homebush and North Strathfield. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 16.7% to 17.1%.

History
Drummoyne has existed as an electoral district since 1913, with the exception of three elections in the 1920s when proportional representation, and Drummoyne was part of the Ryde multi-member district. Traditionally Drummoyne was dominated by conservatives, but it was held by the ALP continuously from 1962 to 2011.

The original seat was won by the Liberal/Nationalist party continuously from 1913 until its abolition in 1920, and then again was won by the Nationalists when it was restored in 1927, when it was won by John Lee, who had previously been one of five MLAs for Botany since 1920.

The ALP won Drummoyne off Lee in 1930, although he won back the seat in 1932. The ALP’s Robert Greig won Drummoyne in 1941, 14 years after he had last served in the Legislative Assembly as one of the Members for Ryde from 1920 to 1927.

Greig was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Robert Dewley in 1947. He held the seat for two terms, losing in 1953 to the ALP’s Roy Jackson.

Jackson held the seat for one term, and lost in 1956 to the Liberal Party’s Walter Lawrence. He held the seat for two terms, losing in 1962. He was the last Liberal to win Drummoyne.

In 1962, Drummoyne was won by the ALP’s Reg Coady, who had previously held the seat of Leichhardt since 1954, but moved to Drummoyne upon the abolition of his first seat. He retired in 1973.

Coady was succeeded in 1973 by Michael Maher. He held the seat until his resignation in 1982, when he ran for the by-election in the federal seat of Lowe. He held Lowe until his defeat in 1987.

The 1982 Drummoyne by-election was won by John Murray. He served as a shadow minister when Labor was in opposition, and served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1995 until his retirement in 2003.

Drummoyne has been held since 2003 by Angela D’Amore. D’Amore was appointed a Parliamentary Secretary in March 2010, but her rise was cut short by an ICAC inquiry in late 2010. This inquiry looked into misuse of parliamentary allowances, and she was found to have engaged in corrupt conduct. Following this decision, Premier Kristina Keneally removed her as a Parliamentary Secretary, and her membership of the Labor Party was suspended.

In 2011, Liberal candidate John Sidoti won Drummoyne with a 24% swing.

Candidates

  • John Sidoti (Liberal)
  • Leon Belgrave (Outdoor Recreation Party)
  • Alice Mantel (Greens)
  • Jason Khoury (Labor)
  • Pat Di Cosmo (No Land Tax)
  • Isabelle Zafirian (Christian Democratic Party)

Assessment
Drummoyne had a long history of being Labor-held prior to the last election. A uniform swing of 17% would likely produce a hung parliament, so Drummoyne is a critical seat. It’s hard to see Labor winning in current circumstances, but at the very least this margin should be cut substantially.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
John Sidoti Liberal 26,397 56.0 +19.4 56.4
Angelo Tsirekas Labor 11,872 25.2 -22.1 25.2
Adam Butler Greens 4,624 9.8 +0.4 9.6
Alex Elliott Independent 3,182 6.8 +6.8 6.7
Marc Gesling Christian Democrats 1,042 2.2 +2.2 2.0

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
John Sidoti Liberal 28,349 66.7 +24.3 67.1
Angelo Tsirekas Labor 14,183 33.3 -24.3 32.9
Polling places in Drummoyne at the 2011 NSW state election. Concord in yellow, Drummoyne in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Drummoyne at the 2011 NSW state election. Concord in yellow, Drummoyne in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Drummoyne have been split into two halves, based on the two council areas that used to cover the area: Concord to the west of Canada Bay and Drummoyne to the east.

The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote was similar in both areas – between 66% and 67%.

The Greens vote was much higher in Drummoyne at 10.6% compared to Concord at 7.8%.

Voter group LIB 2PP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Drummoyne 66.8 10.6 17,464 41.6
Concord 66.3 7.8 16,859 40.2
Other votes 68.0 11.4 7,632 18.2
Two-party-preferred votes in Drummoyne at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Drummoyne at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Drummoyne at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Drummoyne at the 2011 NSW state election.

12 COMMENTS

  1. Liberal retain.

    Labor and it’s candidate Jason Khoury are running dead here.

    A drive down Lyons road you will see many a corflute of John Sidoti and none for Labor.

    If you look at Jason’s Facebook page many a Labor supporter is having a whinge about the lack of campaigning here.

    Quite surprising given it’s history of being a safe Labor seat withstanding the 1988 rout but I guess the margin the Libs have built up here and John Sidoti’s strong personal vote in the largest Italian community in Sydney have pushed Labor to focus more in seats like Strathfield.

    Also, Luke Foley lives in this seat.

  2. Drummoyne is not the same Drummoyne as it was. Heavy waterfront developments have made it kinda like the south-western part of the North Shore. Labor won’t win it back until they’re entrenched in government IMO.

  3. Khoury has been out and about, but what you don’t see in Drummoyne is the army of red shirted volunteers you see in next door Strathfield.

    Whilst this area has drifted Liberal, it’s not yet lost for Labor. Look at the 2012 Canada Bay election results. (You can see from the booth maps above how closely Canada Bay LGA aligns with the Drummoyne electorate.) Labor mayor Angelo Tsirekas was re-elected with 49.3% to the Libs 41.4% and Greens 9.3%. The council votes were Lib 44.4% ALP 43.5% Greens 10.6%. And 2012 was hardly a great time for the Labor brand.

    But the fact that Tsirekas is not the candidate again this time does suggest it’s not a top tier target for Labor.

  4. This seat is slowly swinging to the Coalition. This will eventually turn into a seat that the ALP will only ever win when solidly in government.

  5. This is my electorate.

    Angelo Tsirekas (Labor Mayor of Canada Bay and candidate in 2011) had a strong local presence and following. That all evaporates this time, the seat is not in doubt – it now belongs to the Libs.

    Labor’s candidate is a (politically) unknown real estate mortgage broker. His boyish face appears in the local paper a lot, but only in ads in the real estate section. He’s a newcomer to campaigning, and does not appear to be doing any…

    John Sidoti is an extremely active and visible as MP. Last time he wiped out Labor’s margins in Five Dock (still an Italian enclave) because of his background, and he appears to know everyone in the area personally… Before 2001 he used to run a large local function centre and was mayor of Burwood. Being MP has simply given him more opportunities (and a taxpayer funded budget to boot) to become even better known.

    The Greens candidate is an unknown – apparently a local lawyer. Despite being astute enough to put out a campaign flyer with the main points in Mandarin (or Cantonese, sorry I don’t know) their vote will decline this time. This is just demography as much as anything else – gentrification has been relentless since 2011, but these new wealthy residents are not the same as the Anglo boomers who have replaced the migrants and workers in Balmain and Newtown, giving the Greens their strength there.

    Another factor (since 2011) is Rhodes. Those 30 storey tower blocks are now well on the way to filling up. They are NOT being purchased by Labor or Greens voters.

  6. Note that this is one of the 10 seats where the Greens’ online preferences exhaust without reaching either Labor or Coalition.

  7. One of a few Liberal-held seats that swung to them (along with Parramatta, Seven Hills, Oatley and East Hills off the top of my head) Looks like Sidoti is either very popular, and/or the area has gentrified a lot in the past four years.

  8. I think Sidoti got the Italians last time… There has been lots of gentrification too but unlike Balmain and Newtown, that’s not feeding the Greens vote at all, which remained static. Also unlike Leichhardt Council, Canada Bay Council (which covers the entire electorate) has planned for and successfully embraced urban infill, and its population has grown dramatically (I think its one of the fastest growing LGAs in Sydney). Inevitably, like most middle ring urban suburbs where there has been development, it is also increasingly less Anglo. And less Italian, they are getting old and moving on…

  9. I predicted this correctly, am not surprised in the least even that Sidoti managed a swing towards him here with such a lukewarm Labor campaign.

    Never in my wildest dreams I would have imagined this seat with a 20% Liberal margin.

  10. Galloping gentrification in the old working-class areas along the harbour has got a lot to do with it.

Comments are closed.